West Oxon U’s
Well-known member
- Joined
- 14 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 9,204
Coventry Telegraph report.
Clutching at straws!There is a link on the Coventry twitter link above, that describes a Wycombe player saying that promotion should be weighted on the halfway stage of the season, when all teams had played each other once. Wycombe played Bolton first game of the season when the Trotters had only 3 contracted players and gave debuts to 8 teenagers. Hardly a fair reflection.
I thought it was a well written email.If you are being deliberately stupid please make it obvious.
If we had all our last games to play against Bolton youth team we’d be bleating for a pools panel verdict.
Isn’t it a bit late for childish insults like that? Just write the club’s name out in full. Ditto with Swindon. Pray that they survive, so that we have someone to play and have as rivals.
I thought it was a well written email.
Why would any plan try to accommodate a situation that couldn’t exist? (Multiple games against Bolton). That would be deliberately stupid!
Are you very old? Or an essential worker?
Yes. Grabbing at straws.Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.
However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:
"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!
The bottom line is:
If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.
Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:
1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)
2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations
Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.
Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.
Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.
As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.
It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."
So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.
Thoughts?
If the situation were reversed, I would doubtless agree, but then you wouldn’t have put forward this argument as it would have seemed less evident to you.Thoughts?
Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.
However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:
"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!
The bottom line is:
If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.
Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:
1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)
2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations
Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.
Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.
Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.
As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.
It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."
So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.
Thoughts?
I can see where you are coming from. Of course I can. I just thought it would be good to provide the alternative perspective that hasn't been considered here.If the situation were reversed, I would doubtless agree, but then you wouldn’t have put forward this argument as it would have seemed less evident to you.
Your two criteria are no more cast iron then any other considerations.
Weighted ppg is not definitively predicting the future, it is analysing past performance and taking into account a parameter that is of enough significance that it is usually included in league tables. The same argument rules out using ppg at all because you are predicting results for some teams.
Regarding variables - not all variables are equal. As I pointed out above, hone advantage is considered such an important factor that it is built into every aspect of the league.
Thoughts?
I can see where you are coming from. Of course I can. I just thought it would be good to provide the alternative perspective that hasn't been considered here.
Also, weighted PPG does predict the rest of the season because the judgement is based on where the remaining games are scheduled to be held. Standard PPG doesn't make any predictions about the remaining fixtures, and is purely based upon results so far. Some variables are more important than other for sure. And home advantage is a big one. But at the end of the day, every football match is on a grass pitch with 11 v 11 players. You don't get more points for winning away than at home. And fixture difficulty is the most important variable of the lot. If we still had to play Portsmouth away rather than Southend, we'd most likely be ahead of you on both PPG and weighted PPG
The only concrete variables are matches played, goals scored/conceded, and points won
Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.
However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:
"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!
The bottom line is:
If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.
Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:
1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)
2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations
Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.
Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.
Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.
As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.
It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."
So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.
Thoughts?
Standard PPG doesn't predict anything. It's simply dividing number of points by number of games played. No predictions at allStandard PPG does make predictions on results. The only way it wouldn't is if every team had played the same amount of games. Youve played one game less which is why your ppg is higher, what's to say you would have got anything out the next game?
I'm guessing the only solution that everyone except Coventry and rottherham will be happy at is to void the season and start again with Bolton on minus points.
Sorry, but you’re wrong. There is no difference in this respect between ppg and weighted ppg. They are both simply calculated on past performance. It’s just that one weights past performance on where each game was played. It’s not that hard.Standard PPG doesn't predict anything. It's simply dividing number of points by number of games played. No predictions at all