How to complete the season

[West Oxon U’s]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258679958207168512

Coventry Telegraph report.

 

[Barbadosyellow]

A quick reminder that the current government rules are that all employees in any industry should work from home unless they can social distance at work or they are essential workers. So football cannot restart until those rules change and, based on current forecasts, that's not going to happen in tomorrow's announcement.

Looks like we're going to be arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic for a while longer.

Could the religious people among us please pray for a miracle.

 

[Grumpy Git]

There is a link on the Coventry twitter link above, that describes a Wycombe player saying that promotion should be weighted on the halfway stage of the season, when all teams had played each other once. Wycombe played Bolton first game of the season when the Trotters had only 3 contracted players and gave debuts to 8 teenagers. Hardly a fair reflection.

 

[Northstandboy]

There is a link on the Coventry twitter link above, that describes a Wycombe player saying that promotion should be weighted on the halfway stage of the season, when all teams had played each other once. Wycombe played Bolton first game of the season when the Trotters had only 3 contracted players and gave debuts to 8 teenagers. Hardly a fair reflection.

Clutching at straws!

 

[dickwalton1964]

It may be a hollow promotion but who really cares. We are currently, indisputably, the third best team in L1 and if the season is cut short and say Coventry deserve it in first then we too outright deserve it in third. There are so many variables to counter virtually every individual argument.

 

[chuckbert]

If you are being deliberately stupid please make it obvious.

If we had all our last games to play against Bolton youth team we’d be bleating for a pools panel verdict.

I thought it was a well written email.

Why would any plan try to accommodate a situation that couldn’t exist? (Multiple games against Bolton). That would be deliberately stupid!

 

[Ox4Eva]

Isn’t it a bit late for childish insults like that? Just write the club’s name out in full. Ditto with Swindon. Pray that they survive, so that we have someone to play and have as rivals.

I want to see Reading and the swine suffer as much as possible, sorry if that offends...

 

[dickwalton1964]

I thought it was a well written email.

Why would any plan try to accommodate a situation that couldn’t exist? (Multiple games against Bolton). That would be deliberately stupid!

I too thought it made perfect sense. The current status of the opponents your team still has to play is irrelevant. Our home PPG will have taken into account unexpected dropped points (cant recall them off hand but Burton, Shrewsbury to name two) and likewise the hard fought ones you’ve accumulated away (Ipswich, Sunderland, Pompey - arguably the three biggest clubs in L1) as well as the ones chucked away like MK and Bolton. PPG, at the 80% mark, encompasses the peaks and troughs of a season and there can be little argument that we are where we are on merit and will deserve promotion.

 

[Upthecowboys]

Weighted points per game seems the fairest way to me. The Bolton shenanigans, who Wycombe played first game, has already made this season unfair.

The least fair option would be to simply void the season. The league tables are surely valid, we’re not looking at early season league tables. 75% of the season has been played, that is a significant proportion.

Rick Parry is insisting on keeping 3 promoted from the Championship, so he can hardly push for less than the planned promotion places from the leagues below.

There is usually a difference between home and away form, so weighted ppg seems right.

I also think the league table now could be the fairest version. If the league restarts I wouldn’t be surprised to see some walkover scores - mid table teams etc just cruising, teams could lose players due to illness, you’ll see more youth team players involved and how motivated will those players approaching the end of their contracts be - ie risk a serious injury with no contract on the horizon. I really think you could see some joke scores.

It would feel strange if we got promoted this way, but if 3 are going up then why not. Having won our last 5 on the bounce we were on a great run, we are 3rd on merit.

 

[m]

Are you very old? Or an essential worker?

No x 2.

 

[uptheus]

If we get promoted, knowing our luck we won’t get to see any of the games live and end up getting relegated!!

 

[Wanderer]

Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.

However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:


"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!

The bottom line is:

If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.

Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:

1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)

2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations

Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.

Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.

Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.

As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.

It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."


So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.

Thoughts?

 

[Manorlounger]

Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.

However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:


"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!

The bottom line is:

If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.

Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:

1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)

2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations

Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.

Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.

Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.

As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.

It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."


So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.

Thoughts?

Yes. Grabbing at straws.

 

[chuckbert]

Thoughts?

If the situation were reversed, I would doubtless agree, but then you wouldn’t have put forward this argument as it would have seemed less evident to you.
Your two criteria are no more cast iron then any other considerations.
Weighted ppg is not definitively predicting the future, it is analysing past performance and taking into account a parameter that is of enough significance that it is usually included in league tables. The same argument rules out using ppg at all because you are predicting results for some teams.
Regarding variables - not all variables are equal. As I pointed out above, hone advantage is considered such an important factor that it is built into every aspect of the league.
Thoughts?

 

[MC Yellow]

Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.

However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:


"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!

The bottom line is:

If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.

Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:

1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)

2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations

Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.

Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.

Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.

As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.

It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."


So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.

Thoughts?

Whichever way you do this there will be winners and losers.

So the easiest way to deal with this is to keep it as fair but also as simple as possible.

PPG , home and away average, given how much of the season has gone is fairest as the average has sufficient games to be a reasonable basis to use.

If you look at our own fixture run in and our form going into Covid, I would expect we would have been finishing second and giving Coventry a good run for their money.

However, that is still subjective.

You can’t include too many variables to allow for what happened in the past because how do you know those variables wouldn’t have existed for games in the future? That is just supposition.

PPG home and away average is a real figure based on season performance so far.

It is indisputable.

 

[Wanderer]

If the situation were reversed, I would doubtless agree, but then you wouldn’t have put forward this argument as it would have seemed less evident to you.
Your two criteria are no more cast iron then any other considerations.
Weighted ppg is not definitively predicting the future, it is analysing past performance and taking into account a parameter that is of enough significance that it is usually included in league tables. The same argument rules out using ppg at all because you are predicting results for some teams.
Regarding variables - not all variables are equal. As I pointed out above, hone advantage is considered such an important factor that it is built into every aspect of the league.
Thoughts?

I can see where you are coming from. Of course I can. I just thought it would be good to provide the alternative perspective that hasn't been considered here.

Also, weighted PPG does predict the rest of the season because the judgement is based on where the remaining games are scheduled to be held. Standard PPG doesn't make any predictions about the remaining fixtures, and is purely based upon results so far. Some variables are more important than other for sure. And home advantage is a big one. But at the end of the day, every football match is on a grass pitch with 11 v 11 players. You don't get more points for winning away than at home. And fixture difficulty is the most important variable of the lot. If we still had to play Portsmouth away rather than Southend, we'd most likely be ahead of you on both PPG and weighted PPG

The only concrete variables are matches played, goals scored/conceded, and points won

 

[OX14]

I can see where you are coming from. Of course I can. I just thought it would be good to provide the alternative perspective that hasn't been considered here.

Also, weighted PPG does predict the rest of the season because the judgement is based on where the remaining games are scheduled to be held. Standard PPG doesn't make any predictions about the remaining fixtures, and is purely based upon results so far. Some variables are more important than other for sure. And home advantage is a big one. But at the end of the day, every football match is on a grass pitch with 11 v 11 players. You don't get more points for winning away than at home. And fixture difficulty is the most important variable of the lot. If we still had to play Portsmouth away rather than Southend, we'd most likely be ahead of you on both PPG and weighted PPG

The only concrete variables are matches played, goals scored/conceded, and points won

Standard PPG does make predictions on results. The only way it wouldn't is if every team had played the same amount of games. Youve played one game less which is why your ppg is higher, what's to say you would have got anything out the next game?

I'm guessing the only solution that everyone except Coventry and rottherham will be happy at is to void the season and start again with Bolton on minus points.

 

[Dilla]

Wycombe fan in peace here. You guys have had a great season and may well have gone up if it had been completed.

However, I just thought I'd give you the Wycombe perspective, which offers some food for thought not really been considered here. To summarise, I saw this posted on one of our fanpages yesterday:


"***Sorry about the essay*** but I think this is extremely important for the future of our club!

The bottom line is:

If the EFL uses the standard PPG model to decide the season, Wycombe will be promoted in 3rd place. However, if they use a "weighted" PPG, Oxford will be promoted instead of us.

Obviously no solution is going to be fair on everyone, but weighted PPG is the worst option of any because you:

1) Extrapolate from the present to predict future results (based upon whether the game is home or away)

2) Introduce a control variable into the calculations

Both points are extremely important. First, the season must be decided based upon performance so far rather than predicting future results. As soon as you predict results, you are making judgements about things that haven't happened. No element of prediction should come into this.

Second, once you control for home/away records, you have to also consider alternative variables that may have impacted the home/away records - particularly fixture difficulty. We have more away games remaining than home games, which hinders us if using the weighted model because our away form is quite poor. However, apart from Coventry, we've played all of our toughest away games. 5 of our 6 remaining aways are against teams 12th or below.

Likewise, our home form is fantastic but we haven't played Oxford or Rotherham at Adams Park. Without accounting for fixture difficulty, the proposed home/away weighting views Southend away as more difficult than Coventry at home. This is obviously wrong.

As soon as you introduce a control variable (home/away record), you have to introduce other variables (e.g. fixture difficulty) to control for variation in control variable. If the EFL uses the weighted model, they may as well predict the rest of the season based upon form, fixture congestion, injuries, weather conditions, midweek vs weekend matches, suspensions, etc that could influence performance.

It would be completely wrong to decide the season on an arbitrary variable, without considering other more important variables (fixture difficulty). You either use standard PPG, or completely simulate the remaining season."


So rather than being fairer, which it appears at first glance, the weighted PPG model is the least fair option in many ways. It's also worth noting than our run-in was very nice, which isn't accounted for by the weighted model.

Thoughts?

The U's are going up!

 

[Wanderer]

Standard PPG does make predictions on results. The only way it wouldn't is if every team had played the same amount of games. Youve played one game less which is why your ppg is higher, what's to say you would have got anything out the next game?

I'm guessing the only solution that everyone except Coventry and rottherham will be happy at is to void the season and start again with Bolton on minus points.

Standard PPG doesn't predict anything. It's simply dividing number of points by number of games played. No predictions at all

 

[chuckbert]

Standard PPG doesn't predict anything. It's simply dividing number of points by number of games played. No predictions at all

Sorry, but you’re wrong. There is no difference in this respect between ppg and weighted ppg. They are both simply calculated on past performance. It’s just that one weights past performance on where each game was played. It’s not that hard.