International News US Election YF Vote/Prediction

[tonyw]

..... On a more serious note. When are we likely to know who the winner is?

The answer, unfortunately, is 'It depends'.
Different states have different laws - some allow mailed ballots to count as long as they have a Nov. 3rd post mark. Others reject everything received after Election Day.
Some states have been furiously counting all the ballots as they come in, others have rules that won't allow them to start counting until the polls close.

My understanding is that North Carolina & Florida are going to be pretty quick - and if Biden wins either of those, Trump is toast (polls are very tight in both states). We'd then likely know the winner by Wednesday.

But if Trump wins North Carolina & Florida - and he very well might - then it's probably going to come down to Pennsylvania. And given their laws, if the vote is close there it will likely take weeks to get a confirmed result. And probably will involve the courts.

There's another route to victory for Biden if he loses PA that involves him winning Arizona, and an additional district of Maine or Nebraska [the only two states that split their electoral college votes], but how long that one would take to play out, I have no idea.

And if Trump wins Michigan or Wisconsin again, which we'd likely know pretty soon, he's going to cruise it.......but that's looking like a very long shot right now

 

[Essexyellows]

According to yon BBC there could be a long delay due to the volume of postal votes.

Makes you realise how efficient our system is.

 

[mooro]

According to yon BBC there could be a long delay due to the volume of postal votes.

Makes you realise how efficient our system is.

....and fairer..

I am astounded that the votes of millions of Americans are completely discounted by this 'all or nothing' system used in each state.
There are nearly 40m living in California, yet it doesn't matter whether 1m or 19m vote for the loser, the other guy gets ALL of the representatives for that state.

I know that this is the nature of 'first past the post', but in the UK we split 60-odd million people into 650 FPTP votes, whereas the US puts 280million into just 50, thus discounting the preferences of tens of millions of people in each election - democracy at its best?

 

[chuckbert]

....and fairer..

I am astounded that the votes of millions of Americans are completely discounted by this 'all or nothing' system used in each state.
There are nearly 40m living in California, yet it doesn't matter whether 1m or 19m vote for the loser, the other guy gets ALL of the representatives for that state.

I know that this is the nature of 'first past the post', but in the UK we split 60-odd million people into 650 FPTP votes, whereas the US puts 280million into just 50, thus discounting the preferences of tens of millions of people in each election - democracy at its best?

The Uk system doesn’t look that fair to me as it crams multiple parties into a voting method that is designed for a 2 party system. It almost guarantees minority government, and completely fails to represent the voting population.

 

[Essexyellows]

Personally I am in favour of genuine PR and mandatory voting but that is another thread in itself...... and a PR system in the UK would just lead to interminable coalition governments of stagnation.

 

[chuckbert]

Personally I am in favour of genuine PR and mandatory voting but that is another thread in itself...... and a PR system in the UK would just lead to interminable coalition governments of stagnation.

For all its failings, a single transferable vote system does not deliver that. It just means that UKIP can’t split the Tory vote, nor greens/libs the labour vote.
But yes ... wrong thread.

 

[mooro]

Again, our system isn't perfect, but boy does the American one stink!

 

[tonyw]

....and fairer..

I am astounded that the votes of millions of Americans are completely discounted by this 'all or nothing' system used in each state.
There are nearly 40m living in California, yet it doesn't matter whether 1m or 19m vote for the loser, the other guy gets ALL of the representatives for that state.

I know that this is the nature of 'first past the post', but in the UK we split 60-odd million people into 650 FPTP votes, whereas the US puts 280million into just 50, thus discounting the preferences of tens of millions of people in each election - democracy at its best?

It's even worse than that, I think. The US puts 280 million into 50 completely uneven chunks - allocates 538 electors based on population but insists that every state gets at least three electors.

So, for example, Texas has 29 million people living there and gets 38 electoral college votes.
But Wyoming has a population of about 575,000, and still gets 3 electoral college votes.

So your vote is actually worth about 4 times as much if you live in Cheyenne as opposed to Amarillo.

[that being said, I think you can do the same analysis for the UK system and it comes out about the same - the votes of people living on the Isle of Harris are much more valuable than on the Isle of Wight.......]

 

[OUFCwaffle]

When do we find out the results?

 

[Sarge]

Im hoping this ditty gets belted out after the us election results are announced

Donald the President packed his trunk and said goodbye to the whitehouse, off he went with a trumpety trump, trump trump trump

*ive already got me coat

 

[Essexyellows]

I`m not American. I don`t understand how it works.
What does this mean?

"No Electoral College majority, House decides election".

Is that like No majority so Parliament chooses?
Or a coalition of chaos?

 

[Sheik djibouti]

I`m not American. I don`t understand how it works.
What does this mean?

"No Electoral College majority, House decides election".

Is that like No majority so Parliament chooses?
Or a coalition of chaos?

Yeah...but which house....the GOP controlled one or the DNC controlled one?

Mental system!

 

[Essexyellows]

Yeah...but which house....the GOP controlled one or the DNC controlled one?

Mental system!

Exactly! I have not a Scooby.

Trumpy landslide then..........................

 

[tonyw]

I`m not American. I don`t understand how it works.
What does this mean?

"No Electoral College majority, House decides election".

Is that like No majority so Parliament chooses?
Or a coalition of chaos?

So the electoral college is made up of 538 electors, so it is therefore possible for it to end in a 269-269 tie.
(there are a couple of plausible, albeit unlikely scenarios that lead to that)

If that happens, then under the US constitution the House of Representatives picks the President and the Senate picks the Vice President
(although the House doesn't just have a one representative - one vote poll, rather the congregations from each state get one vote. Who would win that is also on something of a knife edge today, although it most likely would be Trump).

So there is an amazing possible future out there where we have a President Trump, and a Vice President Harris. In which case, the orange man is probably going to have a hire a few food tasters! (you could also have a President Biden and a Vice President Pence......but that's less hilarious because they'd probably get along just fine.......)

 

[Essexyellows]

So the electoral college is made up of 538 electors, so it is therefore possible for it to end in a 269-269 tie.
(there are a couple of plausible, albeit unlikely scenarios that lead to that)

If that happens, then under the US constitution the House of Representatives picks the President and the Senate picks the Vice President
(although the House doesn't just have a one representative - one vote poll, rather the congregations from each state get one vote. Who would win that is also on something of a knife edge today, although it most likely would be Trump).

So there is an amazing possible future out there where we have a President Trump, and a Vice President Harris. In which case, the orange man is probably going to have a hire a few food tasters! (you could also have a President Biden and a Vice President Pence......but that's less hilarious because they'd probably get along just fine.......)

Thanks for that!!
Looks like the coalition from hell!!

 

[tonyw]

When do we find out the results?

Assuming there's no big surprises either way (e.g. Biden winning Georgia, Texas or Ohio, Trump winning Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota):

If Biden wins Florida comfortably - before you wake up tomorrow.
If Trump wins Florida, but Biden wins Arizona comfortably - probably before the end of tomorrow.
If Trump wins Florida and Arizona, but Pennsylvania is close - it will genuinely be weeks, if not months before it's resolved.

 

[Leysboy]

Biden just ahead apparently, but that’s because Democrats traditionally vote early. Election Day is when the republicans come out and vote. I think the southern states like Alabama and Mississippi, Georgia will back Trump. He may well get Florida too, and that is a big state with a lot of voters. Pennsylvania is a key state, and could decide who gets the keys to the White House.

 

[Paul Cannell]

So there is an amazing possible future out there where we have a President Trump, and a Vice President Harris. In which case, the orange man is probably going to have a hire a few food tasters!

She's a potential murderer because she's unwhite. Very poor show, dropping to Trump's level.

President Trump referred to California Sen. Kamala Harris as "this monster" in an interview on Thursday, a continuation of his pattern of attacking Black women with demeaning insults. The president has previously reserved the term "monster" for terrorists, murders and major natural disasters.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

Trump will declare he’s won overnight regardless. He’s already set out his stall so that anything but a win for him means it’s a swindle in the eyes of him and his supporters. Hence why he rushed through his Supreme Court appointment when usually such an appointment taking place that close to an election would be held off until afterwards. He’s loading up in case he wants to go nuclear and try to steal the election by some absurd route. He could win it anyway, of course, but if he doesn’t he’s going to go for the smash and grab. Very likely we won’t have witnessed anything like what is about to go down.

Either way, America probably won’t be a very fun place to be in the months ahead. Terrifying that in many States people can just grab a gun and go out onto the streets, and wave it around while throwing a hissy fit. Already been reports over recent days of enormous surges in ammunition sales in some areas.

Probably best to pop the kettle on and have a lovely brew tonight and tomorrow morning. You could even go to The Winchester for a pint, but unfortunately you can’t wait there for it to all blow over, as it’ll be closed after tomorrow.

 

[tonyw]

She's a potential murderer because she's unwhite. Very poor show, dropping to Trump's level.

President Trump referred to California Sen. Kamala Harris as "this monster" in an interview on Thursday, a continuation of his pattern of attacking Black women with demeaning insults. The president has previously reserved the term "monster" for terrorists, murders and major natural disasters.

Nowhere in my flippant post did I suggest that Harris would be trying to murder Trump. In that scenario, there would be ~150 million Americans who might feel there world would be a better place without the orange man in it.

I wonder why you immediately jumped to that conclusion?