International News US Election YF Vote/Prediction

[RyanioBirdio]

You Cubans in Florida should vote for me or face a return to the communism you and your predecessors fled from.

I’ve always found it strange that the Democrats are held up as some sort of left of centre party. Both major political parties in the US are to the right of centre - it’s like when Labour rebranded as New Labour under Blair, and stepped across the centre line to become Conservative Lite. There is a right wing option and a less right wing option, but they’re both to the right of the centre line. Even Biden describing himself as a centrist is a stretch to say the least.

 

[ttg17]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323851835199811587

Bernie Sanders called the process correct too. I think we all knew that unless Trump was beaten by a resounding margin, he would spit his dummy out, stomp his feet and generally make a stink. He is a colossal man-baby after all.

But, there is still some hope to avoid all that hoohah. I've enjoyed poking around the states that have yet to declare and as of 12.10pm GMT, Detroit has only counted 63% of votes that could impact the way Michigan goes, Georgia sees Trump with a lead of just over 100,000 with 8% more votes to be counted (some in Atlanta too), Wisconsin is drifting into the blue and despite being some way behind in Pennsylvania, there are a lot of Philly votes of the Democrat persuasion to be counted.

Forgive me for a uncharacteristic moment of Scotchers style positivity, Biden may well be able to take Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. He almost certainly won't but there is plenty to play for. The bigger the margin of the victory, hopefully relates to the hollowness of Trump's complaints.

As the Dems keep saying, don't say anything until every vote has been counted.

Don't forget GA. I think Atlanta is still to be properly counted, as well as mail-ins. By no means a done deal.

The thing is, the margin of victory might be massive in terms of EC votes should he win all those states, but it's more the margin in those states that Trump is almost certainly going to challenge. WI is staggeringly close. It looks like it could be within 5 figures. Others might not be that close, but still close enough that he can cast reasonable doubt (in certain minds) over the legitimacy of the process.

 

[Essexyellows]

Its making Brexit look like a landslide................................

 

[chuckbert]

Its making Brexit look like a landslide................................

If only they'd found a few bags with uncounted votes from the metropolitan elite at the back of the post office back then.

 

[Marked Ox]

Don't forget GA. I think Atlanta is still to be properly counted, as well as mail-ins. By no means a done deal.

The thing is, the margin of victory might be massive in terms of EC votes should he win all those states, but it's more the margin in those states that Trump is almost certainly going to challenge. WI is staggeringly close. It looks like it could be within 5 figures. Others might not be that close, but still close enough that he can cast reasonable doubt (in certain minds) over the legitimacy of the process.

Wisconsin is always close isn't it?

 

[Junior_1]

Some interesting stuff / theories flying about on Twitter, EY will be delighted !

 

[Junior_1]

 

[Whingit]

Does anybody actually find it either interesting or suspicious though when postal votes are massively skewed democrat across the country?

 

[chuckbert]

Probably a feature of the timing of the update to that website. There were around 170K Milwaukee votes in that chunk of which 138K were Biden.

 

[Essexyellows]

Some interesting stuff / theories flying about on Twitter, EY will be delighted !

To be frank I don`t care about our former Colony.

I also vehemently oppose postal voting.
There is no valid reason someone can`t drag their sorry ass to a polling place every few years.

 

[Junior_1]

A certain someone has spoken....

 

[m]

To be frank I don`t care about our former Colony.

I also vehemently oppose postal voting.
There is no valid reason someone can`t drag their sorry ass to a polling place every few years.

I'm sure there are some valid reasons.

That said, postal voting does seem ludicrously archaic in this day and age!

 

[tonyw]

Does anybody actually find it either interesting or suspicious though when postal votes are massively skewed democrat across the country?

I mean Trump actively told his supporters not to vote via post, but to come out to the polls. Democrats have historically been vastly more comfortable with absentee voting than Republicans (which is why the GOP put so much effort into preventing postal voting wherever they could before the election)

It's now looking very, very likely that Biden will have a majority in the electoral college based on vote counts that the states release.

So the remaining question is - how is Trump now going to try and attack this in the courts? What grounds is he going to try and use to cling onto power?

 

[carefreeoufc]

I wonder if he wins whether he'll appoint a group of neutral investigators to carry out a robust enquiry into any wrong doing (on both sides)..... A little like the last investigation he ordered which found??? Yep... nothing.

I'm sure if/when Trump is no longer President there'll be reports available which highlight things far more concerning that the supposedly magical goings on of the 2020 postal vote in the US election.

 

[tonyw]

Also 'postal voting' is not necessarily what we're talking about here. At least not everywhere. It's more appropriate to talk about 'absentee voting'

Because of Covid (or in some states because it's what they normally do), a lot of states sent out absentee voting forms to either all their populations or to anyone who asked for one. This includes Pennsylvania.

The recipients could mail them back - but could also drop them off in a box at their county court office or polling station at any point in the run-up to the election.

It's these - regardless of how they were returned - that are still being counted.

(Most of the voting on the day in the US is done electronically through machines, so the results there are pretty much instantaneous and don't require people shuffling paper)

 

[carefreeoufc]

I mean Trump actively told his supporters not to vote via post, but to come out to the polls. Democrats have historically been vastly more comfortable with absentee voting than Republicans (which is why the GOP put so much effort into preventing postal voting wherever they could before the election)

It's now looking very, very likely that Biden will have a majority in the electoral college based on vote counts that the states release.

So the remaining question is - how is Trump now going to try and attack this in the courts? What grounds is he going to try and use to cling onto power?

If he loses the electoral college is Biden instantly instated as President or does Trump remain President during any potential court battle? In the instance that there is a court battle I assume that there will be some instances (as has been reported) of voter intimidation etc. which the Biden camp can bring into the mix? Are there other things such as the finances of Trump and tax returns that could be brought into it? As in to suggest "not only did we not cheat but also he's not fit to hold the highest office in the land"?

 

[ttg17]

Where are these images from? What is the source? Literally anybody with the most basic grasp of MS Paint could mock these images up.

Come on man. Don't give any credence to Trump's nonsensical and dangerous attempts to undermine legitimate votes.

 

[chuckbert]

Where are these images from? What is the source? Literally anybody with the most basic grasp of MS Paint could mock these images up.

Come on man. Don't give any credence to Trump's nonsensical and dangerous attempts to undermine legitimate votes.

You can see exactly what actually happened here (the republican vote also jumped at the same time, but by less because Milwaukee is more Democrat):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323987082780401666

 

[Junior_1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323947219062562821

Sorry Essex [emoji23]

 

[tonyw]

If he loses the electoral college is Biden instantly instated as President or does Trump remain President during any potential court battle? In the instance that there is a court battle I assume that there will be some instances (as has been reported) of voter intimidation etc. which the Biden camp can bring into the mix? Are there other things such as the finances of Trump and tax returns that could be brought into it? As in to suggest "not only did we not cheat but also he's not fit to hold the highest office in the land"?

Whatever happens, Trump is still president until January 20th 2021 - that's when the inauguration happens.

I believe that all controversies and challenges have to be resolved by December 14th, as that's when the state electors have to declare their intentions.