International News US Election YF Vote/Prediction

Who will win the US Election on Tuesday?

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 25 46.3%
  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 29 53.7%

  • Total voters
    54
  • Poll closed .
You would think with his petulant behaviour that the Republican Party wouldn’t vote him in again.

But it's not the Republican Party that votes in the primaries, it's registered Republican voters (and anyone can register as Republican if they want to).

And whilst I suspect that the events of last week mean that Trump is now favored by a minority of Republican voters - it's still a pretty sizable minority. So if the rest of the Republican Party doesn't coalesce quickly around an alternative candidate (so does what they did in 2016), then I could easily see Trump winning the nomination again.

Honestly, there's three things that could put a stop to Trumpian ambitions of another term (assuming he has them):
1) He could be in jail and/or so wrapped up in legal cases that he doesn't have time to consider another political run
2) His health and mental status could have deteriorated too much in the next four years to sustain another Presidential campaign (he would be 78)
3) They could impeach him, remove him from office and then bar him from future office now. But this requires that a) a senate trial can legally continue after a defendant has left office (still to be determined) because they won't be finished before the 20th, b) requires that McConnell will not stall starting the trial until it's too late (I think he will, and will personally take the hit for it) and c) requires that 2/3 of senators would vote for it (decidedly unlikely, even if they do get through a & b).
 
Trump could be the first US president ever to have two impeachments .....according to BBC news
 
But it's not the Republican Party that votes in the primaries, it's registered Republican voters (and anyone can register as Republican if they want to).

And whilst I suspect that the events of last week mean that Trump is now favored by a minority of Republican voters - it's still a pretty sizable minority. So if the rest of the Republican Party doesn't coalesce quickly around an alternative candidate (so does what they did in 2016), then I could easily see Trump winning the nomination again.

Honestly, there's three things that could put a stop to Trumpian ambitions of another term (assuming he has them):
1) He could be in jail and/or so wrapped up in legal cases that he doesn't have time to consider another political run
2) His health and mental status could have deteriorated too much in the next four years to sustain another Presidential campaign (he would be 78)
3) They could impeach him, remove him from office and then bar him from future office now. But this requires that a) a senate trial can legally continue after a defendant has left office (still to be determined) because they won't be finished before the 20th, b) requires that McConnell will not stall starting the trial until it's too late (I think he will, and will personally take the hit for it) and c) requires that 2/3 of senators would vote for it (decidedly unlikely, even if they do get through a & b).

Agreed. From what I've read under Senate rules, the earliest a Senate trial could take place until Jan 20th anyway. Either the 100 day+ delay wanted by the Democrats is allowable or it won't happen.
 

Not so clear what Trump would lose under impeachment. Would need to be found guilty by Senate and then it is still ambiguous in some cases. To stop him running in 2024, there would have to be another vote but with a simple majority vote to succeed, albeit if he was actually impeached/guilty then I doubt this would be a problem.
Impeachment would place his actions clearly on the permanent historical record, making it harder for supporters and future proto-despots to discount his role.
 
well with Deutsche Bank seemingly cutting ties with Trump/the Trump organisation he might be in real trouble. They are the only 'respectable' international bank that were loaning him money, if they stop lending to him it could all fall like a pack of cards.
 
well with Deutsche Bank seemingly cutting ties with Trump/the Trump organisation he might be in real trouble. They are the only 'respectable' international bank that were loaning him money, if they stop lending to him it could all fall like a pack of cards.
Not only that but a number of US large Companies have suggested that they will no longer donate to the Republican Party.
If this actually happens Trump is even more likely to be 'disowned" by the Republicans' The Capitol Hill attack could have been one step too many for Trump
 
well with Deutsche Bank seemingly cutting ties with Trump/the Trump organisation he might be in real trouble. They are the only 'respectable' international bank that were loaning him money, if they stop lending to him it could all fall like a pack of cards.

That would be a spectacular self destruction because of his ego. I wonder if he is regretting becoming President?

I see a lot of financial backers and supporters are withdrawing support of the Republican Congressmen and women who voted against the State results. Hawley's main financial backer has said he will no longer back him and that supporting him was a big mistake as has Hawley's mentor who is an ex-Congressman who is wildly respected in Missouri.
 
That would be a spectacular self destruction because of his ego. I wonder if he is regretting becoming President?

I see a lot of financial backers and supporters are withdrawing support of the Republican Congressmen and women who voted against the State results. Hawley's main financial backer has said he will no longer back him and that supporting him was a big mistake as has Hawley's mentor who is an ex-Congressman who is wildly respected in Missouri.
he could have spent his time doing **** all bar playing golf and he would have been fine (admittedly he hasn't done a huge amount more than this), I'm really not sure what he expected to achieve with this toxic narcissistic explosion - but it seems to have definitely made him and his brand toxic.
 
he could have spent his time doing **** all bar playing golf and he would have been fine (admittedly he hasn't done a huge amount more than this), I'm really not sure what he expected to achieve with this toxic narcissistic explosion - but it seems to have definitely made him and his brand toxic.

I worry the answer is he genuinely believes what he is doing is right. Decades of employing yes men might do that to you.
 
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