Home Match Build Up 18/4/2023 L1: OUFC v Portsmouth

[Scotchegg]

It's got draw written all over it..... 5-5

Remember several people around me leave when it was 5-2!

 

[5aside]

We’ve just got to keep it in our hands rather than make it where we are relying on others to do us a favour and beat sides around us . This is a must win game

 

[Oxford84]

He has played at centre back and in a back 3 over the last couple of seasons when we have been short there, in fact they have been his best performances.

Apart from that one season when Long and Ruffels were brilliant at full back.

 

[Foley]

He’s played quite a few times as right CB in a back three, and done pretty well at it.

Well maybe 5 or 6 of 200 appearances ( stand to be corrected)

 

[tonto]

We are missing Bate just when we need him most. Would like to see Smyth more. Not so sure about Smith but as nobody else seems to be able to score.... Finally we get to a must win game we are surely due a slice of luck please God.

 

[tonyw]

Not so sure about Smith but as nobody else seems to be able to score....

This got me thinking, so I did a bit of stats trawling.

And unless I'm much mistaken, the only fit player in our squad that has ever scored 10+ league goals in a season is Cam?
Tyler Smith never has. Nor have Browne, Murphy, Wildschut or Joseph (Bodin, Baldock and obv. Henry all have - but that's not much use to us when they're all crocked).

Which leads me to three conclusions:
a) It's not all that suprising that we've not been able to hit a barn door with a banjo recently when none of our fit forwardshave ever had a track record of scoring regularly at any time in their careers.
b) Of all the dumb decisions made this year, loaning out the guy who has 100+ league goals to his name twenty minutes before the January window shut probably takes the biscuit
c) Karl could not have done a worse job of putting together a functional squad this season if he blindly threw darts at a stack of Rothmans (and yes, I know, they haven't been Rothmans for a while, but I'm old and it still sounds better than 'Sky Sports Football Yearbook')

 

[m]

This got me thinking, so I did a bit of stats trawling.

And unless I'm much mistaken, the only fit player in our squad that has ever scored 10+ league goals in a season is Cam?
Tyler Smith never has. Nor have Browne, Murphy, Wildschut or Joseph (Bodin, Baldock and obv. Henry all have - but that's not much use to us when they're all crocked).

Which leads me to three conclusions:
a) It's not all that suprising that we've not been able to hit a barn door with a banjo recently when none of our fit forwardshave ever had a track record of scoring regularly at any time in their careers.
b) Of all the dumb decisions made this year, loaning out the guy who has 100+ league goals to his name twenty minutes before the January window shut probably takes the biscuit
c) Karl could not have done a worse job of putting together a functional squad this season if he blindly threw darts at a stack of Rothmans (and yes, I know, they haven't been Rothmans for a while, but I'm old and it still sounds better than 'Sky Sports Football Yearbook')

Point c becomes even more incredible when you recall that not all of the squad places have been assigned.

Again.

 

[Symp59]

Another game we need to win ,we will be in the bottom 4 after Tuesday night and that will be cemented after Barnsley away .Then we have the 3 games we need to win and by then we wouldn't have won for 17 games . What a disaster that so many even before the season could see and nobody at the club owned up to. Will we recover from this season let's hope the powers to be don't cut the cord or Karl's legacy could could be even worst than we are thinking right now .Or will we win Tuesday and draw Saturday do miracles happen we keep thinking something is going to happen soon.

 

[RgYellows]

I’m not saying he can’t or shouldn’t change it, I’m merely pondering whether it’s likely and if teaching them a totally new system at this stage is going to be better than trying to improve on the one he’s been trying to hammer them into shape with since his first day. Would we have enough time to get it going? Have we gone too far down the road in terms of the time that’s left? Would tearing it all up halfway through a ten game season be bold and decisive or brazen and destructive? Would it leave the players less clear on what they’re meant to be doing when by all accounts the thing they like the most at present is that they know exactly where they’re meant to be playing and what is expected of them?

The truth is that we would only really know by the time the season is over whether it was right or wrong, and if it were the latter it would probably be far more damaging for Manning long term. I’m glad it’s not me having to make the call, that’s for sure.

I'll agree with the final sentiment in particular, as well as the overall futility and overwhelming sense of bleakness.

I dont think it's less damaging to sit on our hands and surrender to the inevitable for another five games (assuming results don't pick up). Especially when most of the players that Manning probably doesn't want are going to be here next year. Taking up a massive chunk of budget as well.

 

[Essexyellows]

start the game as we started the second half against Bolton and we`ll be fine.

Aggression, pace and positivity will get a result.

 

[ThatSlopesATwelfthMan]

I think the issue at this point is that rightly or wrongly, Manning has picked his formation and the way he’s going to try to get out of it. He’s spent over a month drilling a certain shape and way of playing into the players. I don’t think he’s going to change that now, and maybe that’s for the best in the here and now.

Arguably we went from having a bad season to being stuck in a death spiral when Robinson reached the ‘change absolutely everything until something sticks’ stage of panic and chaos. “Drop Findlay! Play four at the back with Djavan on the right! No, I’ve decided he’s a liability, get Longy back in there! Try wing backs and stick Yanic up front! Now get Josh Murphy at wing back and stick Baldock up front! s**t, they’re crap and injured again, go back to a four! I’ve got it! Take the armband off Elliott and make Longy and Cam co-captains!”

I thought a back three with wing backs was the most logical choice when Manning showed up, but he didn’t go that way. Would it actually be worse to lob everything in the bin now? Would the players start thinking, “Oh here we go, another bloody tinker man stuck in a tailspin”?

Good post, strongly agree. The last few games have felt a bit like a high pressure pre-season, bedding in new principles and getting a view on certain players. There've been some encouraging signs and some equally obvious misfires. Tinkering with shape and structure of the team now could undo the good and would be unlikely to fix the root problem which is clearly a lack of confidence to attack as a unit and trust one another. Regarding team selection, Manning seems to have prioritised physicality and erred towards proven 'quality' regardless of form, hence Murphy over Goodrham. His post-match comments after Bolton were pretty damning so I'm expecting to see a few changes in personnel and positioning tomorrow but not core formation. Based on team would be...

Anderson Moore Findlay Brown
Smyth
McGuane Brannagan
Browne Fleming
Joseph

 

[Made-in-Jericho]

Sadly just cannot see us winning tonight.
Would be great if Mous did us a favour and put his U15 team on but PFC are still in the hunt for a playoff place so have something to play for.
Our squad is absolutely shot to pieces thanks to that previous chap and the negligence of T&G.
Manning has an impossible task now to unlock a solution, blend the team properly but with no time to make it all gel with this bunch low-on-confidence players.
Have to accept the inevitable unless Cambridge somehow implode and we hold on for a couple of draws and a narrow win somewhere.
Problem is we seem to struggle against the so-called 'easy' teams as well as the better ones.
Oxford 0-3 Portsmouth

 

[oufc1991]

Sadly just cannot see us winning tonight.
Would be great if Mous did us a favour and put his U15 team on but PFC are still in the hunt for a playoff place so have something to play for.
Our squad is absolutely shot to pieces thanks to that previous chap and the negligence of T&G.
Manning has an impossible task now to unlock a solution, blend the team properly but with no time to make it all gel with this bunch low-on-confidence players.
Have to accept the inevitable unless Cambridge somehow implode and we hold on for a couple of draws and a narrow win somewhere.
Problem is we seem to struggle against the so-called 'easy' teams as well as the better ones.
Oxford 0-3 Portsmouth

I can't see us winning tonight either hopefully tomorrow night tho

 

[Sarge]

Sadly just cannot see us winning tonight.
Would be great if Mous did us a favour and put his U15 team on but PFC are still in the hunt for a playoff place so have something to play for.
Our squad is absolutely shot to pieces thanks to that previous chap and the negligence of T&G.
Manning has an impossible task now to unlock a solution, blend the team properly but with no time to make it all gel with this bunch low-on-confidence players.
Have to accept the inevitable unless Cambridge somehow implode and we hold on for a couple of draws and a narrow win somewhere.
Problem is we seem to struggle against the so-called 'easy' teams as well as the better ones.
Oxford 0-3 Portsmouth

me too .... thankfully the match is tomorrow night, Ive a feeling we'll (finally) notch up a win under Manning

 

[oufc1991]

me too .... thankfully the match is tomorrow night, Ive a feeling we'll (finally) notch up a win under Manning

I hope your right if we do get relegated I'd rather go down fighting this team have it in them to scrap hopefully w get the first goal and the confidence starts coming back

 

[Made-in-Jericho]

me too .... thankfully the match is tomorrow night, Ive a feeling we'll (finally) notch up a win under Manning

Whoops, sorry getting a bit ahead of myself!

 

[WuTang]

I think they've been drilled into a 4-2-3-1 and we have been more solid playing this since Manning arrived. Our issue is scoring goals.

As others have mentioned, too much changing in shape that they haven't worked on would be detrimental. It needs the existing shape tweaking to make us more dangerous further forward.

Eastwood
Long Moore Brown Fleming
Smyth Mcguane
Goodhram Brannagan Browne
GOD / Smith

Anderson could play right back too which would allow us some better play down the wings. I'd move Browne to left wing where I think he plays his best football, he looks less confident as a 10 and his finishing has been woeful. Let's focus him down the left beating his man and getting to the byline.

Goodhram in for the work rate our other wingers simply do not have.

Brannagan has to play higher, these are desperate times and we need our star player in and around the box, not defending in front of his own.

Give Smith a try, worth a shot.

 

[Berliner]

I think they've been drilled into a 4-2-3-1 and we have been more solid playing this since Manning arrived. Our issue is scoring goals.

As others have mentioned, too much changing in shape that they haven't worked on would be detrimental. It needs the existing shape tweaking to make us more dangerous further forward.

Eastwood
Long Moore Brown Fleming
Smyth Mcguane
Goodhram Brannagan Browne
GOD / Smith

Anderson could play right back too which would allow us some better play down the wings. I'd move Browne to left wing where I think he plays his best football, he looks less confident as a 10 and his finishing has been woeful. Let's focus him down the left beating his man and getting to the byline.

Goodhram in for the work rate our other wingers simply do not have.

Brannagan has to play higher, these are desperate times and we need our star player in and around the box, not defending in front of his own.

Give Smith a try, worth a shot.

Browne is, in my mind, not a left midfielder. All of his good actions come down the middle. That formation would leave Fleming horribly isolated (which is when he has major issues) and the back line protected by an inexperienced Smyth.

We would get an even bigger shoeing playing four at the back with Anderson protected by Goodrham.

Play Fleming in left midfield, move Browne into the middle and Brannagan back instead of Smyth could work (or drop Brannagan *clutches pearls*).

 

[WRox]

Sorry if this has been discussed or I’ve missed something but what’s the story with Tyler Smith?

I thought Saturday epitomised us under Manning so far. We look solid enough albeit with an extremely one-paced back line, we fill the spaces well, I think McGuane and Cam have clicked again and are moving us up the pitch better, Joseph was industrious as ever, but when we looked for a no 9 to make something happen, we just had an 18 year old kid to rely on (a very promising one, but just a prospect all the same).

Surely if he’s fully fit, Smith has to step up for us now? Or am I missing something?

 

[WuTang]

Browne is, in my mind, not a left midfielder. All of his good actions come down the middle. That formation would leave Fleming horribly isolated (which is when he has major issues) and the back line protected by an inexperienced Smyth.

Astonishing, I feel the exact opposite. Browne has looked like a rabbit in headlights in the middle and his final ball was appalling at Port Vale especially. He's clearly uncomfortable there, he's not linking with Brannagan or Mcguane, he offers no protection or pressing in the centre of the pitch. Brannagan and Mcguane consistently pick the ball up and can't pick out Browne between the midfield and defensive lines, leading to all of our play going down the wings or playing direct balls to an isolated striker. The best we get from Browne in the middle is a quick skip round a player and foul in deep positions, or the occasional decent burst forward which always ends in hopeless efforts miles over the bar, sure there's a bit of potential there but it's ineffective at the moment and not something we can afford at this stage of the season.

We need him back on the left, his natural position, where he's played his best football for us. He can get at full backs and get dangerous balls into the box from the by line, something we are really struggling with currently. We need goals, which means we need finishers in those positions, that needs to be Brannagan if we stand any chance, not a player who flatters to deceive and can't finish or link play. Brannagan can pick up those crosses and clearances, he can press defences, he can play the correct final ball and he's far more likely to finish chances.

That formation is the current system we use, the one that actually prevents our full backs becoming horribly isolated. It's led to us conceding less and being rolled over, we currently have Brannagan and McGuane dropping deep with our full backs to offer more cover. That's worked sure, but we NEED goals right now and need to sacrifice a little defensive protection for goals further forward. We cannot afford to have both of them doing defensive donkey work for 90 minutes to see out draws and narrow defeats.

Whether it be Fleming, Brown, Long or Anderson at fullback, we need to get our best players into those forward positions to score more now and Smyth is more than capable of playing the covering role in defensive midfield to allow that to happen. We aren't sacrificing a player in there, it's the same system with a less experienced robust midfielder allowing our BEST player to venture forward when we need him. That's worth the adjustment in my opinion.