Matches Last 10 Games

[MustardYellow]

Over the last 5 seasons (not including Covid season), you've needed an average of 75/76 points to make the play-offs. Based on PPG so far this season, you'll need around 78/79 points for a play-off spot.

If we use the 5 season average, we need 6 wins from our last 10. If we base it on the PPG of those teams above us, we'll need 7 wins from 10.

Our last 10 games:

Cheltenham (H)
Bolton (A)
Port Vale (A)
Lincoln (H)
Shrewsbury (A)
Fleetwood (H)
Burton (A)
Posh (H)
Stevenage (H)
Exeter (A)

Doable?

I think the fixtures have been quite kind to us, as there are definitely 6 winnable games in there. Other than Bolton, Posh and Stevenage they're all teams you'd expect (or at least hope lol) that we'd beat.

 

[Pompeyyellows]

I'm going for 6 wins 2 draws 2 defeats. But it is doable. Unlikely yes but doable.

 

[MustardYellow]

I'm going for 6 wins 2 draws 2 defeats. But it is doable. Unlikely yes but doable.

It's a tricky one because as you say, it's very very doable but going from 1 win in 10 to 6/7 wins in 10 is a massive turn around.

 

[Leysboy]

Ideally you want to be playing teams that are already wearing their flip flops.

There are a lot of tough games in there, and I’m not going to get carried away after one decent performance. We still lost the game, and sadly I think we will just fall short.

 

[MustardYellow]

Ideally you want to be playing teams that are already wearing their flip flops.

There are a lot of tough games in there, and I’m not going to get carried away after one decent performance. We still lost the game, and sadly I think we will just fall short.

I think we'll fall short, but in terms of a fixture schedule for the last 10 games of a season where you're chasing play-offs, you'd struggle to get one better than we have. 10 games where only 3 of them are in the top 9 and 6 of them are below 15th with a home game against the side you're battling 6th for.

It's a huge opportunity.

 

[oufc1991]

Over the last 5 seasons (not including Covid season), you've needed an average of 75/76 points to make the play-offs. Based on PPG so far this season, you'll need around 78/79 points for a play-off spot.

If we use the 5 season average, we need 6 wins from our last 10. If we base it on the PPG of those teams above us, we'll need 7 wins from 10.

Our last 10 games:

Cheltenham (H)
Bolton (A)
Port Vale (A)
Lincoln (H)
Shrewsbury (A)
Fleetwood (H)
Burton (A)
Posh (H)
Stevenage (H)
Exeter (A)

Doable?

I think the fixtures have been quite kind to us, as there are definitely 6 winnable games in there. Other than Bolton, Posh and Stevenage they're all teams you'd expect (or at least hope lol) that we'd beat.

Looking at that list.. we lost to Cheltenham when we played at their place.. we drew with Bolton at our place but Bolton were very good iirc ... Port vale won against us at our place... We beat Lincoln and they were poor but have picked up since... Shrewsbury were shite when we played against them.... Fleetwood were looking doomed when we played them earlier in the season.... Burton was probably the best performance under Des .... Posh were superior to us when we played them... We got three points and was very good against Stevenage...we got 3 points against Exeter

That's what happened earlier in the season

So on that point I'm predicting 3 wins 4 defeats 3 draws from our next 10 games

 

[Scrongo]

Every game is winnable , no matter what.
Looking at the last 10 games, you would like to think ,7 of those are winnable .
That's 21 points , but as you know , things don't always work like that.
We need to go on a unstoppable run, could be done ,but I doubt it....

 

[MustardYellow]

Every game is winnable , no matter what.
Looking at the last 10 games, you would like to think ,7 of those are winnable .
That's 21 points , but as you know , things don't always work like that.
We need to go on a unstoppable run, could be done ,but I doubt it....

Even if we don't make the play-offs we need to win a fair number of these games. If we come to the end of the season, with just a couple of wins from those last 10 games, any hope I had for next season will quickly dwindle.

Now is the time we should see fight from the players (and management). Chasing play-offs with some favourable fixtures, if we can't get a string of serious performances under those circumstances then we never will!

 

[dickwalton1964]

It's a tricky one because as you say, it's very very doable but going from 1 win in 10 to 6/7 wins in 10 is a massive turn around.

100% this. It’s do-able but that’s a monumental upturn in performances and results required. Just as DB deserves stick for getting us in this current mess, he’d deserve the praise if he manages it. It’s hard to see, or fathom, how we can go from 1 in 10 to 6 or 7 in 10. The fixtures don’t look that easy to me either. Take away the Bolton, Stevenage and Peterborough games where we will likely get no more than 2 points then I think that’s 7 wins needed, minimum 6. We are better than some but are we really any better than Lincoln ? Exeter ? Port Vale ? I’d say we are around that level and no way could we just assume we’d roll them over. A hell of a task but let’s see.

 

[Scrongo]

Even if we don't make the play-offs we need to win a fair number of these games. If we come to the end of the season, with just a couple of wins from those last 10 games, any hope I had for next season will quickly dwindle.

Now is the time we should see fight from the players (and management). Chasing play-offs with some favourable fixtures, if we can't get a string of serious performances under those circumstances then we never will!

Yes there is no excuses, not to put in 100% performances, to achieve the goal of play offs. If not, it's been one hell of a strange season...

 

[Berliner]

It's all about momentum from here on in. Winning one and then losing one will not cut the mustard. Unfortunately, momentum is what we have the least of at the moment.

Possible, yes. Realistic, not really (in my opinion). And let's all not forget the lottery of the playoffs before we start putting the champagne on ice.

 

[Siho]

It's certainly set up for am exciting end to the season!

If we beat Stevenage and they lose their game in hand, we just need to match them for points and we will be in the playoffs.

 

[MustardYellow]

100% this. It’s do-able but that’s a monumental upturn in performances and results required. Just as DB deserves stick for getting us in this current mess, he’d deserve the praise if he manages it. It’s hard to see, or fathom, how we can go from 1 in 10 to 6 or 7 in 10. The fixtures don’t look that easy to me either. Take away the Bolton, Stevenage and Peterborough games where we will likely get no more than 2 points then I think that’s 7 wins needed, minimum 6. We are better than some but are we really any better than Lincoln ? Exeter ? Port Vale ? I’d say we are around that level and no way could we just assume we’d roll them over. A hell of a task but let’s see.

I struggle with the fact we shouldn't even be in this position. We were comfortably in the play-offs when Manning left - our terrible form under Des is why we're even needing to have this discussion. I think someone mentioned in another thread that even if we had average form/PPG since Des arrived we'd still be in the play-offs. It's understated just how poor we've been under him.

Our squad has shown it has potential to be better than those teams you mention, and some of those above us in the table too - we saw that at the start of the season.

 

[Scotchegg]

The lottery of the playoffs could play to our advantage. I think that we can do enough to take 6th spot, but the top 5 all currently look stronger than us. But if we win the last 3 or 4 to make it, and Derby drop points to miss out on the autos then we potentially go into the playoff game with the confidence and momentum, and anything can happen.

This season was always expected to be one of consolidation so to be in with a shout of the playoffs with 10 games to go is still something to unite behind and be positive about.

 

[dickwalton1964]

It's certainly set up for am exciting ems to the season!

If we beat Stevenage and they lose their game in hand, we just need to match them for points and we will be in the playoffs.

Yes but Stevenage have a bit of Pompey about them - I don’t think they’re a particularly great side but they somehow carve out results and they definitely aren’t going away. Evans has them with the bit between their teeth and I only see them becoming more resilient and more capable of digging out results as the season goes on. Right now, they are everything we are not, even luckier maybe.

 

[dickwalton1964]

I struggle with the fact we shouldn't even be in this position. We were comfortably in the play-offs when Manning left - our terrible form under Des is why we're even needing to have this discussion. I think someone mentioned in another thread that even if we had average form/PPG since Des arrived we'd still be in the play-offs. It's understated just how poor we've been under him.

Our squad has shown it has potential to be better than those teams you mention, and some of those above us in the table too - we saw that at the start of the season.

Yes, I ageee. This discussion was unthinkable at the turn of the year. Elsewhere I have pinpointed 4 games (Reading twice, Northampton and Orient) where we had each game precisely where we wanted it - in the palm of our hand. Four leads, four games with the momentum but four times we took our foot off the gas and paid the price. The tactics deployed after going ahead in these four games - particularly the two against Reading and the Northampton game - were depressingly negative and I think will ultimately cost us.

On paper we have better players but no way would I trust us to dig out wins in any of those remaining games. Yes, we will win some of course but you’ve got your head in the clouds if you’re a fan genuinely believing we are suddenly about to become a 7 wins in 10 games sort of team.

 

[SteMerritt]

but that’s a monumental upturn in performances and results required.

I'm not sure it is 'monumental', we've got to somehow work out how to close out games, and start converting the glut of draws we've had into wins. Hard work, granted, but 'monumental upturn'? No.

 

[dickwalton1964]

The lottery of the playoffs could play to our advantage. I think that we can do enough to take 6th spot, but the top 5 all currently look stronger than us. But if we win the last 3 or 4 to make it, and Derby drop points to miss out on the autos then we potentially go into the playoff game with the confidence and momentum, and anything can happen.

This season was always expected to be one of consolidation so to be in with a shout of the playoffs with 10 games to go is still something to unite behind and be positive about.

Who do you think drops out to let us in ? I don’t see anyone really bottling it from here. Peterborough possibly, as they are the only team who have suffered a serious wobble, but they’ve now regained momentum. The others all lose odd games but they don’t tend to lose two or three on the bounce, like us, and all seem to somehow dig out wins from nowhere.

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Worth pointing out that Lincoln is likely to be pp'd for internationals. And then rescheduled for either the Tuesday before, or after, Peterborough. Either way, it looks like three massive home games, back to back, in April (Lincoln, Peterborough, Stevenage) - and no home game (after this Saturday) for the rest of this month.

Likely fixture list below - and it adds further pressure on getting away wins this month to prevent us being too far adrift going into April.

On the flip side, after Bolton it's four games in a row against bottom 8 sides, then three massive games - all at home (opportunity for a 3 game ticket offer?) before a final day against a side that'll be on the beach...

Cheltenham (H)
Bolton (A)
Port Vale (A)
Shrewsbury (A)
Fleetwood (H)
Burton (A)
Lincoln (H)
Peterborough (H)
Stevenage (H)
Exeter (A)

It'll be close. I've had a couple of goes at the below - one had us 5th and the other 8th...

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[dickwalton1964]

I'm not sure it is 'monumental', we've got to somehow work out how to close out games, and start converting the glut of draws we've had into wins. Hard work, granted, but 'monumental upturn'? No.

From 1 win in 10 to 7 wins in 10 when the heat is on ? If that’s not monumental it’s borderline monumental.