Steve Gilbert
Well-known member
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- 11 Feb 2021
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I think the bottom 3 are down and I think Accrington will be the 4th.
Lets hopeI think the bottom 3 are down and I think Accrington will be the 4th.
fivethirtyeight reckons 4th bottom finishes on just 42. I suspect it'll be a bit higher than that though.
Desperate for 42 points. How very sad this all is.So Forest Green haven't won a game since December 10th.
Cambridge have won one game in 2023 (against us).
Accrington have won three out of their last eighteen league games (but have managed to pick up six red cards in the last two months!)
Morecambe have won one of their last eleven......
And then there's us.
Unless at least two teams turn their form around sharpish, 42 points for 4th bottom may not be too far off!
Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
1 | Ipswich | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 18 | |
2 | Barnsley | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 16 | April 22 |
3 | Sheff Wed | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 13 | April 7 |
4 | Portsmouth | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 12 | April 18 |
5 | Plymouth | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 12 | |
6 | Peterborough | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 | April 1 |
7 | Fleetwood Town | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | |
8 | Cheltenham | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | April 25 |
9 | Burton Albion | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 | |
10 | Charlton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 | |
11 | Exeter | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 | |
12 | Shrewsbury | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | |
13 | Bristol Rovers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
14 | Wycombe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 | |
15 | Port Vale | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | April 10 |
16 | Derby | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 | |
17 | MK Dons | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 | |
18 | Lincoln City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 | |
19 | Bolton | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 | April 15 |
20 | Accrington Stanley | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 | May 7 |
21 | Morecambe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | |
22 | Cambridge Utd | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | |
23 | Oxford Utd | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | |
24 | Forest Green | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 | April 29 |
To get 42 points we need 1 win and 2 draws. It isn't about Sheff W, Barnsley Bolton, Peterborough ( we can lose 6 games)We are going to struggle to get to 42 pts ,lose at Peterborough then it's Sheff Wed Vale away then Bolton .How many points from those games ? let's hope we get 4 points .If less then we will almost certainly be in the bottom 4 .It's then even tougher to get out its all so depressing
Youâve got to think he will add at least 6 points which may just do it from where we are but I think we need 8/9. Normally at least one side goes on an unlikely run which may already be happening with MK and Cheltenham have also soared up the league. I donât think the current bottom 4 have that capability but they can get draws which will give us headaches as we are desperately struggling for points.To get 42 points we need 1 win and 2 draws. It isn't about Sheff W, Barnsley Bolton, Peterborough ( we can lose 6 games)
We need to win one of Accringron, Cheltenham, FGR and Port Vale.
Plus a couple of draws.
I reckon we may need 44 to 45 points so maybe we need to win 2.
If we can't do that then Manning will have made no difference to KR
All of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.
If so, then only 5 points needed. A couple of draws in the upcoming 'harder' matches and then one win in the final three 'easy' games against Cheltenham, FGR & Accrington. But will need to not lose those last two.
It would be good to 'just' need a draw.Do you see us winning a "must win game" at the moment?
I think a "must win game" would add so much pressure to our eleven that it will favour the other team
The problem is that over the previous 10 games (for easy maths!), we are averaging 0.2 points per game. Keep that up and we will accumulate 2 more points. Whatever the other teams do, we simply have to be much, much better than we have been if we want to avoid the drop because if the teams below us manage to average half a point per game, we will be down.All of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.
Yup. The idea that a point is a point regardless of the opponent is completely false. If we had drawn against Ipswich and Fleetwood and beaten Morecambe and MK, rather than the other way around, we would still have 37 points but MK and Morecambe would each have one point less than they currently do, thus creating a bigger gap for them to close.But I think a point that gets missed is that who we pick the points up from is almost just as important as how many we get. i.e. if we go and get a shock win at Peterborough and Barnsley, we could still lose to Accrington and go down.
...hence the term 'six-pointer'.Yup. The idea that a point is a point regardless of the opponent is completely false. If we had drawn against Ipswich and Fleetwood and beaten Morecambe and MK, rather than the other way around, we would still have 37 points but MK and Morecambe would each have one point less than they currently do, thus creating a bigger gap for them to close.
Games against the teams around and below us are factually worth âmoreâ than others. Itâs not even a debate.
WELL I KNOW THAT STE BUT IâVE SEEN AND HEARD TOO MANY PEOPLE PRETENDING IT DOESNâT WORK THIS WAY WHEN IT OBVIOUSLY DOES....hence the term 'six-pointer'.
I know you know that, I was reaffirming your point for others who may still be unsure. Disengage your Caps Lock, and take a moment...
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And I thought Cambridge would have been easy along with MorecambeAll of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.
If so, then only 5 points needed. A couple of draws in the upcoming 'harder' matches and then one win in the final three 'easy' games against Cheltenham, FGR & Accrington. But will need to not lose those last two.