Matches The run in

[Steve Gilbert]

I think the bottom 3 are down and I think Accrington will be the 4th.

 

[bazzer9461]

I think the bottom 3 are down and I think Accrington will be the 4th.

Lets hope

 

[tonyw]

fivethirtyeight reckons 4th bottom finishes on just 42. I suspect it'll be a bit higher than that though.

So Forest Green haven't won a game since December 10th.
Cambridge have won one game in 2023 (against us).
Accrington have won three out of their last eighteen league games (but have managed to pick up six red cards in the last two months!)
Morecambe have won one of their last eleven......
And then there's us.

Unless at least two teams turn their form around sharpish, 42 points for 4th bottom may not be too far off!

 

[TailsWeWin]

So Forest Green haven't won a game since December 10th.
Cambridge have won one game in 2023 (against us).
Accrington have won three out of their last eighteen league games (but have managed to pick up six red cards in the last two months!)
Morecambe have won one of their last eleven......
And then there's us.

Unless at least two teams turn their form around sharpish, 42 points for 4th bottom may not be too far off!

Desperate for 42 points. How very sad this all is.

 

[Symp59]

We are going to struggle to get to 42 pts ,lose at Peterborough then it's Sheff Wed Vale away then Bolton .How many points from those games ? let's hope we get 4 points .If less then we will almost certainly be in the bottom 4 .It's then even tougher to get out its all so depressing

 

[stokeu]

1 point gained from 4 games, desperately need to beat FGR and Stanley...

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Ipswich	6	6	0	0	16	0	16	18
2	Barnsley	6	5	1	0	15	4	11	16	April 22
3	Sheff Wed	6	4	1	1	11	7	4	13	April 7
4	Portsmouth	6	4	0	2	10	6	4	12	April 18
5	Plymouth	6	4	0	2	10	9	1	12
6	Peterborough	6	3	1	2	10	7	3	10	April 1
7	Fleetwood Town	6	3	1	2	5	4	1	10
8	Cheltenham	6	3	1	2	7	7	0	10	April 25
9	Burton Albion	6	3	1	2	9	13	-4	10
10	Charlton	6	2	2	2	7	6	1	8
11	Exeter	6	2	2	2	6	6	0	8
12	Shrewsbury	6	2	1	3	8	8	0	7
13	Bristol Rovers	6	2	1	3	7	7	0	7
14	Wycombe	6	2	1	3	6	6	0	7
15	Port Vale	6	2	1	3	6	7	-1	7	April 10
16	Derby	6	2	1	3	9	12	-3	7
17	MK Dons	6	2	1	3	5	8	-3	7
18	Lincoln City	6	1	3	2	4	7	-3	6
19	Bolton	6	1	2	3	4	8	-4	5	April 15
20	Accrington Stanley	6	1	1	4	4	11	-7	4	May 7
21	Morecambe	6	0	3	3	4	10	-6	3
22	Cambridge Utd	6	0	1	5	2	8	-6	1
23	Oxford Utd	6	0	1	5	4	12	-8	1
24	Forest Green	6	0	1	5	3	13	-10	1	April 29

 

[holdsteady]

We have to play 4 of the top 6 in the above table still, hard to see us getting much from those games so we need to go some in the other 5 games. Hopefully Bolton are choking badly and we can get something at home to them.

 

[Foley]

We are going to struggle to get to 42 pts ,lose at Peterborough then it's Sheff Wed Vale away then Bolton .How many points from those games ? let's hope we get 4 points .If less then we will almost certainly be in the bottom 4 .It's then even tougher to get out its all so depressing

To get 42 points we need 1 win and 2 draws. It isn't about Sheff W, Barnsley Bolton, Peterborough ( we can lose 6 games)
We need to win one of Accringron, Cheltenham, FGR and Port Vale.
Plus a couple of draws.
I reckon we may need 44 to 45 points so maybe we need to win 2.
If we can't do that then Manning will have made no difference to KR

 

[Swaby39]

To get 42 points we need 1 win and 2 draws. It isn't about Sheff W, Barnsley Bolton, Peterborough ( we can lose 6 games)
We need to win one of Accringron, Cheltenham, FGR and Port Vale.
Plus a couple of draws.
I reckon we may need 44 to 45 points so maybe we need to win 2.
If we can't do that then Manning will have made no difference to KR

You’ve got to think he will add at least 6 points which may just do it from where we are but I think we need 8/9. Normally at least one side goes on an unlikely run which may already be happening with MK and Cheltenham have also soared up the league. I don’t think the current bottom 4 have that capability but they can get draws which will give us headaches as we are desperately struggling for points.

But I think a point that gets missed is that who we pick the points up from is almost just as important as how many we get. i.e. if we go and get a shock win at Peterborough and Barnsley, we could still lose to Accrington and go down. But stood here today we just have to try and win every game and make sure we avoid loss on the last day; 3 wins from 9 would be a sure season in L1 and that has got to be doable from Port Vale, Cheltenham, Forest Green and Accrington. If we don’t, we can’t have any complaints, we fully deserve to go down. Don’t ask me why but I fancy us at home against Bolton & Shef Wed at home. Going mad I think. Just a sneaky feeling.

 

[ljs]

All of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.

If so, then only 5 points needed. A couple of draws in the upcoming 'harder' matches and then one win in the final three 'easy' games against Cheltenham, FGR & Accrington. But will need to not lose those last two.

 

[theWizard]

All of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.

If so, then only 5 points needed. A couple of draws in the upcoming 'harder' matches and then one win in the final three 'easy' games against Cheltenham, FGR & Accrington. But will need to not lose those last two.

Do you see us winning a "must win game" at the moment?

I think a "must win game" would add so much pressure to our eleven that it will favour the other team

 

[Foley]

Do you see us winning a "must win game" at the moment?

I think a "must win game" would add so much pressure to our eleven that it will favour the other team

It would be good to 'just' need a draw.
Don't forget that Accrington are equally unable to win at the moment.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

All of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.

The problem is that over the previous 10 games (for easy maths!), we are averaging 0.2 points per game. Keep that up and we will accumulate 2 more points. Whatever the other teams do, we simply have to be much, much better than we have been if we want to avoid the drop because if the teams below us manage to average half a point per game, we will be down.

The question is whether the available players are capable of doing so. We've been through the squad numerous times, but one thing that always strikes me is that the players who *do* actually seem to have some flair about them only seem to provide the odd decent ten minutes here and there in a game and contribute little else. Perhaps pessimistically, I doubt whether any manager could turn this lot around - how many of the squad are actually of the quality we need, even just to survive? Very few IMO.

 

[Symp59]

We can't win full stop and haven't for so long and if we end up in the bottom 4 this weekend the pressure increases more. When Karl said in his latest interview 100% Oxford won't go down he knows he's caused it and will effect his chances of getting a job. 100% we could go down. We are all hoping not.I had £100 on at 80/1 but I still hope we stay up .

 

[RyanioBirdio]

But I think a point that gets missed is that who we pick the points up from is almost just as important as how many we get. i.e. if we go and get a shock win at Peterborough and Barnsley, we could still lose to Accrington and go down.

Yup. The idea that a point is a point regardless of the opponent is completely false. If we had drawn against Ipswich and Fleetwood and beaten Morecambe and MK, rather than the other way around, we would still have 37 points but MK and Morecambe would each have one point less than they currently do, thus creating a bigger gap for them to close.

Games against the teams around and below us are factually worth “more” than others. It’s not even a debate.

 

[SteMerritt]

Yup. The idea that a point is a point regardless of the opponent is completely false. If we had drawn against Ipswich and Fleetwood and beaten Morecambe and MK, rather than the other way around, we would still have 37 points but MK and Morecambe would each have one point less than they currently do, thus creating a bigger gap for them to close.

Games against the teams around and below us are factually worth “more” than others. It’s not even a debate.

...hence the term 'six-pointer'.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

...hence the term 'six-pointer'.

WELL I KNOW THAT STE BUT I’VE SEEN AND HEARD TOO MANY PEOPLE PRETENDING IT DOESN’T WORK THIS WAY WHEN IT OBVIOUSLY DOES.

YOU’VE MADE ME USE CAPS LOCK NOW.

 

[SteMerritt]

WELL I KNOW THAT STE BUT I’VE SEEN AND HEARD TOO MANY PEOPLE PRETENDING IT DOESN’T WORK THIS WAY WHEN IT OBVIOUSLY DOES.

YOU’VE MADE ME USE CAPS LOCK NOW.

I know you know that, I was reaffirming your point for others who may still be unsure. Disengage your Caps Lock, and take a moment...

 

[RyanioBirdio]

I know you know that, I was reaffirming your point for others who may still be unsure. Disengage your Caps Lock, and take a moment...

View attachment 12633

 

[bazzer9461]

All of the bottom four ate averaging less than 1 point a game, and I don't really see that changing. 42 points and our better goal difference could well be enough.

If so, then only 5 points needed. A couple of draws in the upcoming 'harder' matches and then one win in the final three 'easy' games against Cheltenham, FGR & Accrington. But will need to not lose those last two.

And I thought Cambridge would have been easy along with Morecambe