Matches League One run-in visual

York-Yellow

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Hello fellow yellows!

Pulled one of these together last year and thought I'd go for it again, given we're going to run through it on the next T'Manor Pod.

Fixture and difficulty key is nice and basic:
- Top 3 = Red
- Top Half = Orange
- Bottom Half = White

I'm sure I could have come up with something more intelligent, that takes into account form and home/away matches, but I'm tired and it's Monday. There's probably a few errors in there somewhere.

I wasn't aware that Pompey and Ipswich had such good run-ins on paper...!

oufc-run-in.jpg
 

Jolteon

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Really nice graphic - but it doesn't half put the challenge into perspective. I think most of us were under the impression we had a really easy run in compared to everyone else but in reality, Pompey and Ipswich have it even easier than us. On the flip side, Blackpool, Doncaster and Lincoln have difficult run ins so there could still be 3 playoff places up for grabs. Looking at the last 5 games for the Posh - they could be the team that decides the playoffs. MK Dons have come a little out of nowhere too and also have a run in that could see a late charge. They're bang on form and have the opportunity to take points off 3 of the playoff chases, then have a really decent last 4 games. Makes our point away to them seem a decent result now. Wouldn't right them off, although the way this season has gone I wouldn't right anything off.
 

SteMerritt

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Think we could do with Sunderland having a shock home reverse this weekend followed by a winning reaction to it afterwards as well as Peterborough going on a good run.

...of course it won't matter unless we can get on one of our runs to end the season.
 

ttg17

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Getting flashbacks to a year ago and poring over the 2020 version of this, arguing with Wycombe fans convinced that it proved their run in was so easy they deserved 3rd place!

I would say that our run-in, on paper, is even more favourable (I won't say 'easier' becasue that's just tempting fate) than it does at first glance. What you really want at this stage of the season is teams that are 'on the beach', not involved in promotion or relegation scraps. Pompey, while they only have one top-8 team left to play, are going to be involved in some proper horrible, niggly games of football in the next few weeks. Wigan, Swindon and Wombles all away, and home matches against Gas and a resurgent Burton won't be easy. After Sunderland, the only fixture that really stands out to me for us is Wimbledon away. Gillingham won't be easy but you'd much rather they were coming to us than vice versa.

On the flip side, the Posh, Sunderland and Lincoln run-ins look bruuutal. Even their 'easy' fixtures are by no means gimmes. Lincoln, especially, I could actually see dropping out of the playoffs altogether. It's a promising situation imo - you could make the case that we're in a 'false position' compared to the likes of Posh, who have arguably only accumulated the number of points they have because of the relative ease of their fixtures to date.

The other point of course is that if we do go on a late surge and make the playoffs, you'd have to think we'd be in a great position to do well in them with the necessary momentum we would have generated by blitzing our run-in.
 

BrockBuster

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Think this is really good, but you're right about the Home/Away aspect. Whilst on paper Ipswich and Pompey both look fairly solid, they've both got more away games than home (and both more away games than us).

But form/pressure can always go a bit crazy towards the end of a season regardless. So who knows!
 

Marked Ox

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Think this is really good, but you're right about the Home/Away aspect. Whilst on paper Ipswich and Pompey both look fairly solid, they've both got more away games than home (and both more away games than us).

But form/pressure can always go a bit crazy towards the end of a season regardless. So who knows!

Pompey have been better away according to some of their fans comments I've seen.
 

ZeroTheHero

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When teams are son inconsistent, as they seem to be this season, then it's anybody's guess! How we (for example) can lose to Northampton and beat Lincoln does typify this - I suspect many other team's supporters are saying the same.

I really can't call tomorrow's game. We could win by three or lose by three, keep a comfortable clean sheet or be in trouble every time we have to defend, look like scoring every few minutes or every few games!
 

Wandering Yellow

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After the Northampton fiasco it's hard for me to take this too seriously, but it is an interesting graphic. If we play to the ability we can then it is possible we would make the play-offs, but all too often we just don't show up to games from the get-go. If we are going to make the play-offs we'd have to suddenly shake off a lot of our shortcomings. I'd say we have about a 10% chance?
 

York-Yellow

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Updated view of this.... I think I'll start to believe 'it's back on' after Saturday if we beat Gillingham, given there are so many spicy games in and around us where points will be dropped...
runin.jpg
 

derek

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So after the heart attack inducing Gills match, Charlton/Ipswich bore draw and Portsmouth losing, I think realistically there's one place left, with us, Portsmouth, Charlton, Doncaster and Ipswich up for it.

Charlton are best placed on paper, with two games in hand, but have to play Posh, Hull and Lincoln. Portsmouth have one game in hand but all their matches are against cannon fodder apart from 2 x Stanley matches.

Doncaster - will the manager's decision to play himself pay off or was Saturday just a one off? They have some tough games ahead. Ipswich's run in is much kinder.

Obviously the only thing we can do is win all our matches, and even if we do, it may not be enough. Goal difference could play a part, so we need some more big wins as well.

I was really just scribbling it down to help me get it all in my head - it's hurting a bit less now. Squeaky bum time. Fun, this football lark ;)
 

ubermeistervonmeat

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So after the heart attack inducing Gills match, Charlton/Ipswich bore draw and Portsmouth losing, I think realistically there's one place left, with us, Portsmouth, Charlton, Doncaster and Ipswich up for it.

Charlton are best placed on paper, with two games in hand, but have to play Posh, Hull and Lincoln. Portsmouth have one game in hand but all their matches are against cannon fodder apart from 2 x Stanley matches.

Doncaster - will the manager's decision to play himself pay off or was Saturday just a one off? They have some tough games ahead. Ipswich's run in is much kinder.

Obviously the only thing we can do is win all our matches, and even if we do, it may not be enough. Goal difference could play a part, so we need some more big wins as well.

I was really just scribbling it down to help me get it all in my head - it's hurting a bit less now. Squeaky bum time. Fun, this football lark ;)
Games against "cannon fodder" who are scrapping to stay up can often be the hardest - our game on Tuesday against an in-form AFC will certainly not be easy
 

Scotchegg

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The top two are up, so it's any 4 from a maximum of 8 sides. With us looking at getting a maximum of 77 points, I'll look at what each team needs to stop us going up.

Sunderland +6 points needed.
They've been in awful form, and will likely be beat by Hull on Tuesday. But with home games against Accrington, Blackpool and Northampton, and away at Accrington, they should be able to get the 6 points needed and have a much larger GD so 77 points will be enough.

Lincoln +9 points needed.
A poor March but looking more solid in April. Hull, Peterborough and Charlton will be tough, but Burton, Shrewsbury and Wimbledon should be easier and I think that they'll scrape together 10 points to be safe.

Blackpool +10 points needed.
Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Northampton and Bristol Rovers should all give Blackpool the opportunity to get the points they need, but they are the one side I can see slipping up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of draws from these 4 games leaving them needing to get something from games against Sunderland and Doncaster. One to possibly catch.

Portsmouth +13 points needed.
5 games that are all winnable on paper, but so was MK Dons, Crewe and Burton and they only got 1 point. 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat meaning that we'll stay ahead if we keep winning.

Charlton +15 points needed.
5 wins from 6 needed and I simply can't see it happen. Peterborough, Lincoln and Hull still to play, and I can see a couple of defeats and a draw giving the 73 points.

Ipswich +15 points and see us drop points.
They've not won in 4 and only one win in the last 8. Not a hope!!

Doncaster +18 points.
Win every game, including Peterborough twice, Accrington, Blackpool and Fleetwood. Less chance than Ipswich!!

So in reality I think Sunderland and Lincoln will be in the playoffs with Blackpool, Oxford and Portsmouth making up the final 2 spots, although I think that 3 wins and a draw may still be enough.
 

ttg17

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The top two are up, so it's any 4 from a maximum of 8 sides. With us looking at getting a maximum of 77 points, I'll look at what each team needs to stop us going up.

Sunderland +6 points needed.
They've been in awful form, and will likely be beat by Hull on Tuesday. But with home games against Accrington, Blackpool and Northampton, and away at Accrington, they should be able to get the 6 points needed and have a much larger GD so 77 points will be enough.

Lincoln +9 points needed.
A poor March but looking more solid in April. Hull, Peterborough and Charlton will be tough, but Burton, Shrewsbury and Wimbledon should be easier and I think that they'll scrape together 10 points to be safe.

Blackpool +10 points needed.
Rochdale, Shrewsbury, Northampton and Bristol Rovers should all give Blackpool the opportunity to get the points they need, but they are the one side I can see slipping up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of draws from these 4 games leaving them needing to get something from games against Sunderland and Doncaster. One to possibly catch.

Portsmouth +13 points needed.
5 games that are all winnable on paper, but so was MK Dons, Crewe and Burton and they only got 1 point. 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat meaning that we'll stay ahead if we keep winning.

Charlton +15 points needed.
5 wins from 6 needed and I simply can't see it happen. Peterborough, Lincoln and Hull still to play, and I can see a couple of defeats and a draw giving the 73 points.

Ipswich +15 points and see us drop points.
They've not won in 4 and only one win in the last 8. Not a hope!!

Doncaster +18 points.
Win every game, including Peterborough twice, Accrington, Blackpool and Fleetwood. Less chance than Ipswich!!

So in reality I think Sunderland and Lincoln will be in the playoffs with Blackpool, Oxford and Portsmouth making up the final 2 spots, although I think that 3 wins and a draw may still be enough.
I'm going to disagree with you on Lincoln and Blackpool. I think you're being very optimistic on Lincoln. 10 points from those fixtures will be REALLY tough, and, despite a good win against MK on Tuesday, beating a 23rd-placed Bristol Rovers side that played nearly an hour with 10 men 1-0 on Saturday doesn't scream that they're back in form to me. It's probably also worth noting that they will have played 9 games in the final month of the season (whereas we, for example, will have only played 7). We know from the bench they named at ours that they don't have the deepest squad, and you'd have to think fatigue could play a factor. Even with their games in hand and points on the board, I can see them dropping out of the playoffs altogether (which would be a real shame, given how impressive they were for so long).

Blackpool, on the other hand, are flying. 16 unbeaten, going back to 6 February, is a madness. It looks like they got away with it a bit yesterday (a glance at the stats seems to support the highlights, which suggest Sunderland dominated the game), but they're getting results and have an immense amount of momentum. No way are they slipping up. Honestly, regardless of who gets in the playoffs, I reckon they'll be the team to beat.
 

unification

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It’s getting rather like 2008-09 again when we busted a gut to make the playoffs despite the five point deduction.

Hope this season is just as fun trying to make it - and let’s hope we do. I still think we’re outsiders at present and others have opportunities with those games in hand but they’re not points in the bank yet. Those Tuesday night games on the 27th April and 4th May when we don’t play and others do will be heart pounding affairs if we’re still involved.
 

Carpy17

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So in reality I think Sunderland and Lincoln will be in the playoffs with Blackpool, Oxford and Portsmouth making up the final 2 spots, although I think that 3 wins and a draw may still be enough.
I think we'd be very very lucky if we managed to sneak in with anything less than the 4 wins to be honest
 

tonyw

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Results are never predictable when we get to the run-in.

Someone (I would predict, in descending order from least likely to most likely - Sunderland, Blackpool, Lincoln, Pompey) will let the pressure get to them, have a poor finish, and open the door for us. Certainly if we get to 77, and probably if we get to 75.

That's still a tough task though, even against a slate of lower midtable sides. We cannot afford another Northampton/Accrington. There's no margin for error left.......
 

WRox

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Over the last 20 years, average has been 74.5 for 6th place. Pompey would actually need to outperform their season form slightly to set that this year. We’d have been unlucky if 3 wins and a draw wasn’t enough.
 

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