Matches Relegation Run ins

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holdsteady

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Accrington (23rd)
Played 42, Points 38, Last 5 LWLLL

Sat 22nd April - Portsmouth (a)
Tues 25th April - Bolton (a)
Sat29th April - Cambridge (h)
Sun 7th May - Oxford (a)

Morecambe (22nd)
Played 43, Points 38, Last 5 LLLDW

Sat 22nd April - Charlton (a)
Sat 29th April - Lincoln (h)
Sun 7th May - Exeter (a)

Cambridge (21st)
Played 42, Points 40, Last 5 WWDWL

Sat 22nd April - Plymouth (a)
Sat 29th April - Accrington (a)
Weds 3rd May - Burton (a)
Sun 7th May - FGR (h)

Oxford (20th)
Played 42, Points 41, Last 5 DDDLD

Sat 22nd April - Barnsley (a)
Tues 25th April - Cheltenham (h)
Sat 29th April - FGR (a)
Sun 7th May - Accrington (h)
 
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With our goal difference I would guess we need 49 points to stay up. Since can see MK and Cambridge both achieving 49.
 
Port Vale as well

Port Vale
Played 43, Points 46, Last 5 LLDLL

Sat 22nd April - Bristol (h)
Sat 29th April - Charlton (a)
Sun 7th May - Plymouth (h)
 
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If MK get 4 points from their last 3 games they are doing well. Same with Port Vale.
 
Twiggy85 said:
With our goal difference I would guess we need 49 points to stay up. Since can see MK and Cambridge both achieving 49.
Click to expand...

Still a lot of connotations, Cambridge's run before yesterday changed it a bit but we are definitely going to need a couple of wins I reckon.
 
The absolute key thing, and I can't stress how important this is, is that all those teams bar perhaps Accy have strikers who can score. They maybe can't defend but they can score. So that gives them something.

MK have quality up front. As do Cambridge.

This is what I think will ultimately cost us.
 
Apart from Port Vale (who have to see this Saturday at home to Bristol Rovers as a big chance to get clear before to harder fixtures to finish the season) everyone is away this weekend, with us and Cambridge having very tough games though it means that Morecambe (pretty much need to win, last chance saloon for them) and Accrington need to do something so pressure on them at least.
 
greatunclekip said:
The absolute key thing, and I can't stress how important this is, is that all those teams bar perhaps Accy have strikers who can score. They maybe can't defend but they can score. So that gives them something.

MK have quality up front. As do Cambridge.

This is what I think will ultimately cost us.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately I agree Kip.
 
Well you would have to fancy Accrington getting something down at Portsmouth after what I saw from Pompey last night.
They look to be a very ordinary outfit but well organised at the back under Mousinho who is not flavour of the month down there.

Portsmouth laboured to a 1-0 home win over FGR recently and failed to beat Morecambe at home last Easter Monday in a 0-0 bore fest.
 
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Us and Cambridge have very similar run-ins. I can see Port Vale getting dragged into it and MK don't have it easy either. If we keep our heads above water after Saturday then it will be well and truly in our hands. I think Morecambe are done for with a couple of hard away fixtures. No matter how strong our football is, the fact we are not scoring goals could ultimately be our downfall. MK and Cambridge plus even Accrington are perfectly capable of netting a couple of goals here and there just by virtue of having a recognised strike force.
 
One thing that is in our favour is our goal difference.

Oxford -11
Accrington -37
Morecambe -32
Cambridge -27
Mk - 21
Port vale - 22

That is worth a point in its self.

It means to overtake us

Morecambe need to gain 4 more points than us in their remaining 3 games

Accrington need to gain 4 more points than us in their remaining 4 games.

Cambridge need to gain 2 more points than us in their remaining 4 games.

I reckon 47 points will be the safe point looking at the fixtures.
 
I would be pretty surprised if Cambridge reached 49 points.
They would have to win at both Burton and Accrington to do that ( assuming they lose at Plymouth)
 
Don't forget that the teams at the bottom are generally poor (truism!!)

People suggesting that we can't score goals:

Oxford 41 goals this season

Cambridge 36

Morecambe 39

Accrington 36

MK 40

So we dont score enough, but all of the others at the bottom score less than 1 a game on average.
 
Foley said:
Don't forget that the teams at the bottom are generally poor (truism!!)

People suggesting that we can't score goals:

Oxford 41 goals this season

Cambridge 36

Morecambe 39

Accrington 36

MK 40

So we dont score enough, but all of the others at the bottom score less than 1 a game on average.
Click to expand...

I did notice this, some pretty tame attacks at the bottom, you normally get one team who concede a shed load but score at a decent rate, not this season. Probably explains the low points total likely to stay up. Port Vale and Cheltenham have only scored 43 and 37 as well so the bottom 8 have really struggled in front of goal this season.
 
OX14 said:
One thing that is in our favour is our goal difference.

That is worth a point in its self.
Click to expand...

That phrase gives me the ick - if anyone finishes a point ahead of us we can't 'cash in' our goal difference for the extra point.

I prefer 'half a point' - in so far as it nudges us ahead when level on points but doesn't help when a point behind.

Yes I take your point and yes I am a pedant.
 
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