Transfer News January 2021/22 Transfer Window

[m]

My statement is correct mathematically, logically and in practice. Yours misses the point; the achievement or failure of getting close one year has no bearing on any subsequent year.

BTW I wrote 'if nothing changes'. Has anything changed?

That's undeniably true in matters of pure chance, this isn't a matter of pure chance though. Or at least it shouldn't be.

All hinges on the answer to your question.

 

[Mellowyellow]

Seriously? Talk about rise tinted glasses.
Under MAPP after 20 games most people on here wanted MAPP out. He had a terrible start culminating in the Cambridge game .

I said you saw an improvement in the quality of play and the type of players much quicker with mapp compared with kr. That was then sustained culminating in promotion after a couple of years.
kr seems to be the proverbial groundhog day sometimes, in what he says and what he does.

 

[Scotchegg]

I know this is transfers and has taken a slight diversion towards Robinson, but a couple of interesting things from the ifollow interviews.

Firstly, whilst acknowledging that we will be looking to replace Gorrin, it is clear that we won't be throwing cash around for the sake of it. Robinson spoke about the need to get the right characters as well as the right players, and how the "team" is more important than a few superstar.

As I've said previously, I think that we need to moderate our expectations a little regarding big money or big named players. In fact, Gorrin is an example of how we can bring players in that are barely known, on average wages, but make a far greater impact than many expected.

Secondly, every week we hear from players speaking positively about the club. Gorrin praised the playing and backroom teams for the support they're giving him, and Thorniley referenced that there is a special feeling around the club. He is also loving playing regularly, and alongside the positive comments from Kane and Holland, it's easy to see why we have players wanting to commit their future to Oxford.

Finally, I know that Robinson is very protective of his players and is looking to extend Gorrins contract to give him long term support can be seen as being soft. But I think that it's to his credit that we have a club that goes above and beyond for its players. Baptiste could have been released but we gave him the time to recover and it paid off for him and the club. Brannagan has huge loyalty to Karl and the club for everything they did for him, and could easily replicate what happen with Bap. Robbie Hall didn't work our, but it cost little in the grand scheme of things. But the culture to put players first gives back far more than one or two failed attempts cost.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Seriously? Talk about rise tinted glasses.
Under MAPP after 20 games most people on here wanted MAPP out. He had a terrible start culminating in the Cambridge game .

I remember the usual suspects wanting both Mapp and Robinson out soon after they started. Just think, we’ve could have been in league two with Joey Barton in charge!

 

[Marked Ox]

20k a week for third division football FFS.

I wouldn't be surprised if Barry Bannan at Wednesday is on more either.

 

[tatabanya]

My statement is correct mathematically, logically and in practice. Yours misses the point; the achievement or failure of getting close one year has no bearing on any subsequent year.

BTW I wrote 'if nothing changes'. Has anything changed?

It isn’t because yes, everything has changed. Basically every variable except Robinson has changed. Personnel at Oxford and all 23 other clubs. It isn’t a repeatable action of which the chance of an outcome remains constant, so to argue that the % change of promotion remains constant yoy is wrong. A continuity of a Top 6 finish significantly improves our chances of promotion as it shows a level of competency. If we keep finish Top 6, we will go up. The longer that Top 6 run continues, the more likely we are to finish there again given the consistency of high performance. You seem to think I’m misunderstanding the laws of probability but, as I say, this isn’t a coin toss argument.

“Getting close one year has no bearing on any subsequent year” isn’t true in sport. If a side’s high achievements are built on sustainable performance metrics without a high turnover of personnel that it absolutely does. The world doesn’t reset at the end of each season.

 

[Pompeyyellows]

Getting back to Mapp, He did manage to sign some seriously good players for us in league 2, but as others have alluded to he had a very poor start with us.

KR inherited a very poor squad when he joined us. Now look at us. I think we are maybe 2 or 3 players short of an auto promotion side. The beauty of it is no 1 is talking about us. Its all Sheff Wed this Ipswich that, what an amazing team Wigan are, and look how many fans Portsmouth have, blah de blah. We are in a good place at this moment in time. Yes that can all change in a heart beat.
We have a fantastic starting 11 now. We just need a little bit of depth in certain areas. We have a very good manager, great coaching staff and owners who are saying all the right things. Long may that continue.

 

[Scotchegg]

We've had 3 very good managers at Oxford over the last 12 years. Wilder, Appleton and Robinson have collectively taken us from being a team struggling in the conference to one competing right at the top of league one. All played their part in our success and all have remarkably similar win percentages during their time with us. It's natural for people to have preferences or reflect on different times, but that's all individual choice based on many different variables. Arguing about who is/was the best seems a little pointless.

 

[MJB]

We've had 3 very good managers at Oxford over the last 12 years. Wilder, Appleton and Robinson have collectively taken us from being a team struggling in the conference to one competing right at the top of league one. All played their part in our success and all have remarkably similar win percentages during their time with us. It's natural for people to have preferences or reflect on different times, but that's all individual choice based on many different variables. Arguing about who is/was the best seems a little pointless.

We have been unusually successful with our managerial appointments for over a decade now with only Pep being a clear error (and one which was thankfully addressed quickly).

Two promotions, no relegations and successful cup runs over that period - something to be proud of.

More to come too, hopefully!

 

[Foley]

We've had 3 very good managers at Oxford over the last 12 years. Wilder, Appleton and Robinson have collectively taken us from being a team struggling in the conference to one competing right at the top of league one. All played their part in our success and all have remarkably similar win percentages during their time with us. It's natural for people to have preferences or reflect on different times, but that's all individual choice based on many different variables. Arguing about who is/was the best seems a little pointless.

And during that time which other managers in the Conference, L2 and L1 have really kicked on?
Wilder obviously has done fantastically, Robins at Coventry, Mowbray has done a good job at Blackburn.
I an sure that I have missed a few, but there seem to be remarkably few managers who have proved themselves in the Championship (or even done well in L1)

 

[Osleroad]

I know this is transfers and has taken a slight diversion towards Robinson, but a couple of interesting things from the ifollow interviews.

Firstly, whilst acknowledging that we will be looking to replace Gorrin, it is clear that we won't be throwing cash around for the sake of it. Robinson spoke about the need to get the right characters as well as the right players, and how the "team" is more important than a few superstar.

As I've said previously, I think that we need to moderate our expectations a little regarding big money or big named players. In fact, Gorrin is an example of how we can bring players in that are barely known, on average wages, but make a far greater impact than many expected.

Secondly, every week we hear from players speaking positively about the club. Gorrin praised the playing and backroom teams for the support they're giving him, and Thorniley referenced that there is a special feeling around the club. He is also loving playing regularly, and alongside the positive comments from Kane and Holland, it's easy to see why we have players wanting to commit their future to Oxford.

Finally, I know that Robinson is very protective of his players and is looking to extend Gorrins contract to give him long term support can be seen as being soft. But I think that it's to his credit that we have a club that goes above and beyond for its players. Baptiste could have been released but we gave him the time to recover and it paid off for him and the club. Brannagan has huge loyalty to Karl and the club for everything they did for him, and could easily replicate what happen with Bap. Robbie Hall didn't work our, but it cost little in the grand scheme of things. But the culture to put players first gives back far more than one or two failed attempts cost.

Agree that the "soft" skills of team building and being someone that players actually like being around are important too.

 

[Northernyellow]

Agree that the "soft" skills of team building and being someone that players actually like being around are important too.

Completely agree. While an awful lot of it is about value of contract etc, players all talk (across clubs) and it sounds like Oxford is considered a good club to be at. Way back when (in the 60's& 70's) ,we got good players to stay, in part because the club had a reputation of being a good place to be at. We definitely lost that in the Kassam era, but sounds like we're back on track. All good for player recruitment. The fact that we are offering Gorrin a new contract, and not ditching him when injured, is all part of that.

 

[holdsteady]

They haven't.

Very certain for someone who has never been in the same room as our new owners?

 

[holdsteady]

Completely agree. While an awful lot of it is about value of contract etc, players all talk (across clubs) and it sounds like Oxford is considered a good club to be at. Way back when (in the 60's& 70's) ,we got good players to stay, in part because the club had a reputation of being a good place to be at. We definitely lost that in the Kassam era, but sounds like we're back on track. All good for player recruitment. The fact that we are offering Gorrin a new contract, and not ditching him when injured, is all part of that.

During the Kassam years an ex pro told me that players were openly told to stay away from the club, think we missed out on a couple of local players due to it as our reputation was so bad. Think it took a few years to mend that. Kassam may not of been here when we actually got relegated and struggled to get back up but his legacy still was, actually still struggling though it now.

 

[Paul Cannell]

It isn’t because yes, everything has changed. Basically every variable except Robinson has changed. Personnel at Oxford and all 23 other clubs. It isn’t a repeatable action of which the chance of an outcome remains constant, so to argue that the % change of promotion remains constant yoy is wrong. A continuity of a Top 6 finish significantly improves our chances of promotion as it shows a level of competency. If we keep finish Top 6, we will go up. The longer that Top 6 run continues, the more likely we are to finish there again given the consistency of high performance. You seem to think I’m misunderstanding the laws of probability but, as I say, this isn’t a coin toss argument.

“Getting close one year has no bearing on any subsequent year” isn’t true in sport. If a side’s high achievements are built on sustainable performance metrics without a high turnover of personnel that it absolutely does. The world doesn’t reset at the end of each season.

We both agree about change. Your point about finishing high isn't bad - you start from a higher base as long as the personnel and team play don't get worse. What is the club doing to change for the better?

Manager: he's clearly generally competent, as he was when he joined. Has he shown any sign that he's learning? I don't think so, he makes the same mistakes, the team plays the same football style, his substitutions are frequently bizarre and make the team worse and we still have an unbalanced squad with a whole bunch of midfielders, very weak defensive cover and dependence on 1 striker. Can he learn? I hope so - I think two things that held him back were, unclear target setting and his role was far too diffuse under Tiger (he seemed to be acting as manager, spokesman, social liaison and chief bottle-washer). These appear to have been clarified with Bakrie setting a clear goal and I hope putting into place in which he is enabled and forced to concentrate on one goal - promotion. I hope they have access to some experience in managing that can look over Robinson's shoulder and give him advice - he can use that.

I don't think the team has improved.

We have 2 very decent keepers for this league.

The best defence under this regime had Long/Cadden, Nelson, Dickie and Ruffels with Gorrin or Kashi (the Algerian guy) in front of them. Long is one of my 3 first players on the team sheet (with Taylor & Brannagan) but Seddon can't defend, Thornilly / McInally are out of their depth and they don't seem to defend as a unit. Gorrin is out now and I don't see a midfielder who can protect the defence (I haven't watched Kane enough to say). Last season we got away with having zero defensive cover and we're rolling the same dice now. We're less likely to get away with that, and we seem to be giving up more goals under less pressure in my opinion. We need an organising centre back and a defending left back to improve defence. Why is Mousinho in the squad, it looks like an old pal's act to me

The core of the midfield is potentially incredibly strong for this league with Brannagan and a working McGuane are very good, Kane may be, Sykes would be as good with composure and confidence, Forde is decent. Henry is still a mystery, a slow technical player who's probably got the best touch and vision in the squad but seldom seems to use it.

Wingers and wide players - I don't understand the love affair with wingers who don't attack and don't defend. When we were playing good football and scoring either Whyte or Browne (the one ex-player I'd have back in a shot) were scaring defences by running at them. It seems odd that we don't use Williams on the left - he can defend and does go at defenses. Whyte seems much weaker on the left, needs confidence?

Attack - Taylor. That's it. I think the Agyei experiment has failed, apart from that I fear for the boy's mental health, let's just say it looks like it would do him good to play somewhere where he's a better fit. We still have the knackered punt, for Holmes read Winnall. I'm sure there are a thousand stats to prove me wrong but we seem to score far less often than we should given our periods of domination. This is the most important fix. I wonder if Agyei was meant to be a big pacy lump that wins the ball and scares defenders - thats the sort of player I'd go for, is Akinfenwa available?*

Anyway @tatabanya you seem to have catalysed a long attempt to be fair all round from me. Nice to chat with you.




* It's a joke, really.

 

[Scotchegg]

Very certain for someone who has never been in the same room as our new owners?

Yes, I'm very certain. The rest is for others to consider.

 

[unification]

We have been unusually successful with our managerial appointments for over a decade now with only Pep being a clear error (and one which was thankfully addressed quickly).

Two promotions, no relegations and successful cup runs over that period - something to be proud of.

More to come too, hopefully!

And then some. In the last 31 years - thirty one - Oxford United has been promoted three times. We don't tend to yo-yo like Rotherham or West Brom tend to do. We tend to consolidate rather than live a boom-and-bust existence. It's why promotions are celebrated so much because they are damn hard to come by. Three teams will go up from League 1 this season and 21 sides will end the campaign disappointed - four even more so than others. We're unlikely to be one of the four, but probability says you're likely to be one of the other 21.

The 10 year breakdowns show what a desperate decade the noughties was and what a relatively successful one the tens were. We burned through permanent managers too.

1990-1999 - one promotion, two relegations - three permanent managers
2000-2009 - no promotions, two relegations - 11 permanent managers
2010-2019 - two promotions, no relegations - five permanent managers

Without a promotion with us on his CV, KR has certainly been part of the bigger picture in ensuring we don't add any more relegations to that list. After a difficult 2018-19 (not dissimilar to MApp's mediocre 2014-15 first season with us), we've been battling it out at the right end of the table. He admitted that the team that made it to the playoffs last season wasn't as strong as the one that made it to Wembley in 2019-20, but I think we all knew that. The question is can he build a side that is capable of more than just heroic failure in the playoffs?

I'll admit that the higher we go, the more difficult the task becomes. In the Conference and League 2, we were a relatively big fish so would have been expected to challenge. There are three promotion spots from League 2 as well so more room for error - aim for first but you end up third, up you go regardless. In League 1, when you get bewildered giants like Sunderland and how-did-we-end-up-down-here teams like Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday to contend with and those two automatic places look pretty hard to find. But that's what KR needs to do to prove it to us and to prove it to himself.

His career of 10+ seasons still only shows one promotion and a solitary season with MK Dons in the second tier. He has a winning record, notable scalps over PL sides and a long list of developed talent that plays at a higher level yet he remains at League 1 and, as @Junior_1 does point out, hasn't been headhunted for a job further up (even Russell Martin got a gig at Swansea despite achieving nothing at MK Dons except plaudits). As I've said before, KR is a good manager. For us to go up, he needs to be a great one.

 

[Bacon]

We both agree about change. Your point about finishing high isn't bad - you start from a higher base as long as the personnel and team play don't get worse. What is the club doing to change for the better?

Manager: he's clearly generally competent, as he was when he joined. Has he shown any sign that he's learning? I don't think so, he makes the same mistakes, the team plays the same football style, his substitutions are frequently bizarre and make the team worse and we still have an unbalanced squad with a whole bunch of midfielders, very weak defensive cover and dependence on 1 striker. Can he learn? I hope so - I think two things that held him back were, unclear target setting and his role was far too diffuse under Tiger (he seemed to be acting as manager, spokesman, social liaison and chief bottle-washer). These appear to have been clarified with Bakrie setting a clear goal and I hope putting into place in which he is enabled and forced to concentrate on one goal - promotion. I hope they have access to some experience in managing that can look over Robinson's shoulder and give him advice - he can use that.

I don't think the team has improved.

We have 2 very decent keepers for this league.

The best defence under this regime had Long/Cadden, Nelson, Dickie and Ruffels with Gorrin or Kashi (the Algerian guy) in front of them. Long is one of my 3 first players on the team sheet (with Taylor & Brannagan) but Seddon can't defend, Thornilly / McInally are out of their depth and they don't seem to defend as a unit. Gorrin is out now and I don't see a midfielder who can protect the defence (I haven't watched Kane enough to say). Last season we got away with having zero defensive cover and we're rolling the same dice now. We're less likely to get away with that, and we seem to be giving up more goals under less pressure in my opinion. We need an organising centre back and a defending left back to improve defence. Why is Mousinho in the squad, it looks like an old pal's act to me

The core of the midfield is potentially incredibly strong for this league with Brannagan and a working McGuane are very good, Kane may be, Sykes would be as good with composure and confidence, Forde is decent. Henry is still a mystery, a slow technical player who's probably got the best touch and vision in the squad but seldom seems to use it.

Wingers and wide players - I don't understand the love affair with wingers who don't attack and don't defend. When we were playing good football and scoring either Whyte or Browne (the one ex-player I'd have back in a shot) were scaring defences by running at them. It seems odd that we don't use Williams on the left - he can defend and does go at defenses. Whyte seems much weaker on the left, needs confidence?

Attack - Taylor. That's it. I think the Agyei experiment has failed, apart from that I fear for the boy's mental health, let's just say it looks like it would do him good to play somewhere where he's a better fit. We still have the knackered punt, for Holmes read Winnall. I'm sure there are a thousand stats to prove me wrong but we seem to score far less often than we should given our periods of domination. This is the most important fix. I wonder if Agyei was meant to be a big pacy lump that wins the ball and scares defenders - thats the sort of player I'd go for, is Akinfenwa available?*

Anyway @tatabanya you seem to have catalysed a long attempt to be fair all round from me. Nice to chat with you.




* It's a joke, really.

Good post!

 

[TailsWeWin]

Yes, I'm very certain. The rest is for others to consider.

Yes; of course you are.

 

[werthersoriginal]

We both agree about change. Your point about finishing high isn't bad - you start from a higher base as long as the personnel and team play don't get worse. What is the club doing to change for the better?

Manager: he's clearly generally competent, as he was when he joined. Has he shown any sign that he's learning? I don't think so, he makes the same mistakes, the team plays the same football style, his substitutions are frequently bizarre and make the team worse and we still have an unbalanced squad with a whole bunch of midfielders, very weak defensive cover and dependence on 1 striker. Can he learn? I hope so - I think two things that held him back were, unclear target setting and his role was far too diffuse under Tiger (he seemed to be acting as manager, spokesman, social liaison and chief bottle-washer). These appear to have been clarified with Bakrie setting a clear goal and I hope putting into place in which he is enabled and forced to concentrate on one goal - promotion. I hope they have access to some experience in managing that can look over Robinson's shoulder and give him advice - he can use that.

I don't think the team has improved.

We have 2 very decent keepers for this league.

The best defence under this regime had Long/Cadden, Nelson, Dickie and Ruffels with Gorrin or Kashi (the Algerian guy) in front of them. Long is one of my 3 first players on the team sheet (with Taylor & Brannagan) but Seddon can't defend, Thornilly / McInally are out of their depth and they don't seem to defend as a unit. Gorrin is out now and I don't see a midfielder who can protect the defence (I haven't watched Kane enough to say). Last season we got away with having zero defensive cover and we're rolling the same dice now. We're less likely to get away with that, and we seem to be giving up more goals under less pressure in my opinion. We need an organising centre back and a defending left back to improve defence. Why is Mousinho in the squad, it looks like an old pal's act to me

The core of the midfield is potentially incredibly strong for this league with Brannagan and a working McGuane are very good, Kane may be, Sykes would be as good with composure and confidence, Forde is decent. Henry is still a mystery, a slow technical player who's probably got the best touch and vision in the squad but seldom seems to use it.

Wingers and wide players - I don't understand the love affair with wingers who don't attack and don't defend. When we were playing good football and scoring either Whyte or Browne (the one ex-player I'd have back in a shot) were scaring defences by running at them. It seems odd that we don't use Williams on the left - he can defend and does go at defenses. Whyte seems much weaker on the left, needs confidence?

Attack - Taylor. That's it. I think the Agyei experiment has failed, apart from that I fear for the boy's mental health, let's just say it looks like it would do him good to play somewhere where he's a better fit. We still have the knackered punt, for Holmes read Winnall. I'm sure there are a thousand stats to prove me wrong but we seem to score far less often than we should given our periods of domination. This is the most important fix. I wonder if Agyei was meant to be a big pacy lump that wins the ball and scares defenders - thats the sort of player I'd go for, is Akinfenwa available?*

Anyway @tatabanya you seem to have catalysed a long attempt to be fair all round from me. Nice to chat with you.




* It's a joke, really.

This is indeed very fair. The lack of cover and focus on wingers are of course infuriating, especially as our most effective deliverers of crosses tend to be wide midfielders rather than pure wingers (Henry, Sykes, Forde). I'm a fan of James Henry, because he's involved in so many of our goals and is just generally a really cool guy. But fans of every team will deliver an analysis like this, no one will say everything is great or all the players are just right.