Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

Brexit - Deal or No Deal?

  • Deal

    Votes: 44 29.1%
  • No Deal

    Votes: 74 49.0%
  • Call in the Donald

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Call in Noel Edmonds

    Votes: 4 2.6%
  • I don't care anymore

    Votes: 28 18.5%

  • Total voters
    151

RyanioBirdio

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392
We aren't obligated to buy from EU, where have you got that from?

Also, the EU have just completed a FTA with Japan that covers a huge % of the global GDP which will help mitigation significantly for the EU, coupled with the moving of businesses into EU countries to maintain frictionless/tariff free access (It is already happening) and access to the markets that the EU already have FTAs with. Also, you keep talking about the EU being in an economic mess:

I can find this which suggests GDP growth over the longer term in the EU is better than the UK: https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

So talk me through your evidence?


How long do you think it will take us to mitigate a crash out Brexit? How long is your short term? After all Jacob Rees-Mogg talked about 50 years to see any Brexit benefits. Couple this with the need to have to negotiate with absolutely everybody worldwide, it will be a slow process to work through all these countries through simple logistics (never mind the complexities of each negotiation) as we have few negotiators and they have little experience then I suggest it will be an economic disaster for at least 20 years.

And those economic tools will mean little if they can't negate the tariffs (which will last for years and maybe in plenty of cases decades) or are you suggesting, as an example, that our Govt subsidise Lamb/Sheep farmers by an additional 40%+?. Do you really think the US will allow state subsidies in any FTA with us but I bet they insist on lower food standards etc and as the far smaller negotiating partner we won't be in a strong position to say no. Where will the money come from for subsidies etc come from as a huge chunk of any supposed savings will need to go into the ongoing cost of developing the bureaucracy to do the jobs that pan EU organisations currently do and expanding existing Govt depts/expenditure to handle a crash out Brexit (ie. Increased Customs officers? That doesn't even take into account the economic impact on GDP and taxes of a crash out Brexit which you acknowledge will be great.

This is only looking at the economic impact of course, we haven't even considered the impact on things like scientific research (which also has positive economic spin offs), security co-operation (European arrest warrant/anti terror co-operation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445 ) etc etc.
Don’t you come crashing in here with facts and common sense. The Brexiteers are patriots who are willing to help us through the unspecified years of chaos and disaster because when they’re dead and gone, their beloved Britain will finally see the fruits of their labour. Everybody knows that multi millionaires like JRM and his chums regularly do things that they themselves will not live to benefit from directly. If they weren’t then this would all be about benefitting personally from an economic crash, and you never saw anybody doing that during the 2008 financial crisis. This is about the red, white and blue!
 

Gary Baldi

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Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
3,158
We aren't obligated to buy from EU, where have you got that from?

Also, the EU have just completed a FTA with Japan that covers a huge % of the global GDP which will help mitigation significantly for the EU, coupled with the moving of businesses into EU countries to maintain frictionless/tariff free access (It is already happening) and access to the markets that the EU already have FTAs with. Also, you keep talking about the EU being in an economic mess:

I can find this which suggests GDP growth over the longer term in the EU is better than the UK: https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

So talk me through your evidence?


How long do you think it will take us to mitigate a crash out Brexit? How long is your short term? After all Jacob Rees-Mogg talked about 50 years to see any Brexit benefits. Couple this with the need to have to negotiate with absolutely everybody worldwide, it will be a slow process to work through all these countries through simple logistics (never mind the complexities of each negotiation) as we have few negotiators and they have little experience then I suggest it will be an economic disaster for at least 20 years.

And those economic tools will mean little if they can't negate the tariffs (which will last for years and maybe in plenty of cases decades) or are you suggesting, as an example, that our Govt subsidise Lamb/Sheep farmers by an additional 40%+?. Do you really think the US will allow state subsidies in any FTA with us but I bet they insist on lower food standards etc and as the far smaller negotiating partner we won't be in a strong position to say no. Where will the money come from for subsidies etc as a huge chunk of any supposed savings will need to go into the ongoing cost of developing the bureaucracy to do the jobs that pan EU organisations currently do and expanding existing Govt depts/expenditure to handle a crash out Brexit (ie. Increased Customs officers) That doesn't even take into account the economic impact on GDP and taxes of a crash out Brexit which you acknowledge will be great.

This is only looking at the economic impact of course, we haven't even considered the impact on things like scientific research (which also has positive economic spin offs), security co-operation (European arrest warrant/anti terror co-operation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445 ) etc etc.
We are very much obligated to buy from inside the system because it's kind of the whole point of a trade bloc - and I've had this discussion already last summer, so I'm not going over it again, have more interesting s**t to get on with.

The EU is a collective economic mess, and will lose one big economy soon and another is on the verge of recession as China are not buying their cars in such numbers and another big market could become a tariff headache soon.

State subsidies can be a part of what we do in the short or medium term while we are on WTO terms - something Comrade Corbyn is very keen on BTW, regardless of where we end up. We don't know what a potential US deal could look like, what we will mutually agree on and how long it will take to even get there. Oooh look, there's a squirrel. ;)

And with all this mess, the Tories somehow have a 7 point in some polls. 7 points bloomin points! Labour should be 7 points up and it shows the complete rankness of the leadership of that that they aren't setting the tone and the Govt are attempting to buy off moderates support to get a deal over the line.
 

Marked Ox

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6 Dec 2017
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6,611
We are very much obligated to buy from inside the system because it's kind of the whole point of a trade bloc - and I've had this discussion already last summer, so I'm not going over it again, have more interesting s**t to get on with.

The EU is a collective economic mess, and will lose one big economy soon and another is on the verge of recession as China are not buying their cars in such numbers and another big market could become a tariff headache soon.

State subsidies can be a part of what we do in the short or medium term while we are on WTO terms - something Comrade Corbyn is very keen on BTW, regardless of where we end up. We don't know what a potential US deal could look like, what we will mutually agree on and how long it will take to even get there. Oooh look, there's a squirrel. ;)

And with all this mess, the Tories somehow have a 7 point in some polls. 7 points bloomin points! Labour should be 7 points up and it shows the complete rankness of the leadership of that that they aren't setting the tone and the Govt are attempting to buy off moderates support to get a deal over the line.
We aren't obligated to buy from within the EU. Obligation means we have to when we don't have to. It may be cheaper in plenty of cases as no tariffs and far less bureaucracy (and therefore less cost) to buy in the single market but we are not legally bound to buy the EU product. As an obvious example, walk down a Supermarket wine aisle, alongside your old world wine (France, Spain, Germany etc) you will find a lot of new world wines (Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa etc). We aren't obligated to buy the old world wine. You need to look up the definition of obligation.

Again, evidence for the EU being a collective economic mess?

You still haven't explained how state subsidies and these other economic tools will negate the impact of the tariffs? Or where the cash is going to come from for these subsidies and other tools after Brexit? Less "oooh, look a squirrel" by the way, far more an "Ostrich with its head in the sand". ;)

Or how long the short term impact is going to be in your opinion? And how many years do you think it will take to mitigate the economic impact of a crash out Brexit on the UK economy? Especially with the lack of expertise and negotiator numbers to negotiate with the whole world as we will have to do.

I'm absolutely confident the US will demand lower agricultural standards in any FTA as the powerful Agricultural lobby are already putting pressure on Congress and the US would be in a far stronger negotiating position than us.

Frankly I don't care what Corbyn wants as he is useless as the Maybot. Corbyn (and Momentum) is the reason we don't have a decent opposition and with FPTP it ensures we're stuck with the rubbish of either of Labour/Tories (although the Tories far more likely). You're right that a decent opposition would be well clear of this Govt in the polls.

I also agree on the use of bribes to MPs from deprived areas. Especially as this Govt and the Tory Party were the ones who focused on austerity.
 
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ZeroTheHero

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7 Dec 2017
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1,485
I'm absolutely confident the US will demand lower agricultural standards in any FTA as the powerful Agricultural lobby are already putting pressure on Congress and the US would be in a far stronger negotiating position than us..
They are already pushing for us to accept the import of chlorinated meat and to reduce our limits on the amount of pesticides allowed on the skin and in the inside of fruit and veg. A sign of things to come when you are negotiating from a position of weakness.
 

Marked Ox

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They are already pushing for us to accept the import of chlorinated meat and to reduce our limits on the amount of pesticides allowed on the skin and in the inside of fruit and veg. A sign of things to come when you are negotiating from a position of weakness.
The US Agricultural lobby are also pushing for the UK to drop "protected geographical designations of origin" that are protected under EU law in our economy. The US wine industry is one of those keen as they want to trade US fizzy wine as Prosecco in the UK.

Edit: I would add that Trump has already demonstrated his backing to the Agricultural industry by supporting it after he started his trade war with China.
 
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Gary Baldi

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6 Dec 2017
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3,158
We aren't obligated to buy from within the EU. Obligation means we have to when we don't have to. It may be cheaper in plenty of cases as no tariffs and far less bureaucracy (and therefore less cost) to buy in the single market but we are not legally bound to buy the EU product. As an obvious example, walk down a Supermarket wine aisle, alongside your old world wine (France, Spain, Germany etc) you will find a lot of new world wines (Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa etc). We aren't obligated to buy the old world wine. You need to look up the definition of obligation.

Again, evidence for the EU being a collective economic mess?

You still haven't explained how state subsidies and these other economic tools will negate the impact of the tariffs? Or where the cash is going to come from for these subsidies and other tools after Brexit? Less "oooh, look a squirrel" by the way, far more an "Ostrich with its head in the sand". ;)

Or how long the short term impact is going to be in your opinion? And how many years do you think it will take to mitigate the economic impact of a crash out Brexit on the UK economy? Especially with the lack of expertise and negotiator numbers to negotiate with the whole world as we will have to do.

I'm absolutely confident the US will demand lower agricultural standards in any FTA as the powerful Agricultural lobby are already putting pressure on Congress and the US would be in a far stronger negotiating position than us.

Frankly I don't care what Corbyn wants as he is useless as the Maybot. Corbyn (and Momentum) is the reason we don't have a decent opposition and with FPTP it ensures we're stuck with the rubbish of either of Labour/Tories (although the Tories far more likely). You're right that a decent opposition would be well clear of this Govt in the polls.

I also agree on the use of bribes to MPs from deprived areas. Especially as this Govt and the Tory Party were the ones who focused on austerity.
I discussed EU trade with Flean ad nauseum. I can't be arsed to go back and re-argue the same points again and again.

EU collective mess - Italy recession and recent bank bail out, Germany on verge of recession, sluggish historic growth across the Bloc (inc UK), mass youth unemployment in Southern States, Greece's continued sluggish economy laden with historic debt, no Govts in Belgium and Sweden still leading to unsure economic policy, etc. Very few EU economies can mitigate the coming recession IMO. Are you confident in the EUs economies?

I think the short term impact of "No Deal" will be hard for us and the EU and I have said that constantly since the vote - I wish you'd take that point in. Time wise, I don't know as there are so many unknowns. As we both know, the Govt's on all sides can find magic money trees when they feel the need. I note the UK Govt are close to appointing one of the worlds leading trade negotiators for when we leave.

I am glad you have finally agreed on Corbyn. It's taken months for you to get that far. Well done.
 

Marked Ox

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I discussed EU trade with Flean ad nauseum. I can't be arsed to go back and re-argue the same points again and again.

EU collective mess - Italy recession and recent bank bail out, Germany on verge of recession, sluggish historic growth across the Bloc (inc UK), mass youth unemployment in Southern States, Greece's continued sluggish economy laden with historic debt, no Govts in Belgium and Sweden still leading to unsure economic policy, etc. Very few EU economies can mitigate the coming recession IMO. Are you confident in the EUs economies?

I think the short term impact of "No Deal" will be hard for us and the EU and I have said that constantly since the vote - I wish you'd take that point in. Time wise, I don't know as there are so many unknowns. As we both know, the Govt's on all sides can find magic money trees when they feel the need. I note the UK Govt are close to appointing one of the worlds leading trade negotiators for when we leave.

I am glad you have finally agreed on Corbyn. It's taken months for you to get that far. Well done.
So you haven't looked up a definition of obligation then.

Yet that collective EU mess as you put it is doing better than the UK economy so we must be in deep, deep trouble (and that is without Brexit). Germany going into recession would suggest the world economy is slowing down considerably, especially with the US-China trade war. If that is the case then we are even more screwed.

I did take your point in about on the short term as I referred to it a few posts back. My question was specifically about time scales. So am I right in thinking you are happy to gamble with our economy/people's lives without knowing how long it will take to recover or even if it will recover? Rees-Mogg clearly is with his 50 years comment.

We'll need more than a magic money tree, we'll need a huge forest of them.

I'm far more confident in the EU economies riding out and mitigating a recession whether caused by Brexit or a slowdown in the world economy than ours which will in all likelihood get decimated (in particular Manufacturing which a number of ERG/Brexiteers have acknowledged). Especially as they have many FTAs including the the new one with Japan which covers a 1/3 of global GDP.

1 negotiator isn't going to go very far when we have the whole world to negotiate with.

You're utterly wrong on my views on Corbyn by the way, I've never liked him and I've openly said so on here. I have him on a par with May, BoJo etc which is why we are screwed as whoever wins it is a rum lot.

The politicians at the top/or highly influential behind the scenes of the 2 main parties are awful. Labour with Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Seamus Milne and Momentum whilst the alternative is May, BoJo, Liam Fox, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, the right wing faction (including the ERG) etc. And you want either side of this lot to negotiate new trade deals?! This country is screwed.
 

Gary Baldi

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3,158
So you haven't looked up a definition of obligation then.

Yet that collective EU mess as you put it is doing better than the UK economy so we must be in deep, deep trouble (and that is without Brexit). Germany going into recession would suggest the world economy is slowing down considerably, especially with the US-China trade war. If that is the case then we are even more screwed.

I did take your point in about on the short term as I referred to it a few posts back. My question was specifically about time scales. So am I right in thinking you are happy to gamble with our economy/people's lives without knowing how long it will take to recover or even if it will recover? Rees-Mogg clearly is with his 50 years comment.

We'll need more than a magic money tree, we'll need a huge forest of them.

I'm far more confident in the EU economies riding out and mitigating a recession whether caused by Brexit or a slowdown in the world economy than ours which will in all likelihood get decimated (in particular Manufacturing which a number of ERG/Brexiteers have acknowledged). Especially as they have many FTAs including the the new one with Japan which covers a 1/3 of global GDP.

1 negotiator isn't going to go very far when we have the whole world to negotiate with.

You're utterly wrong on my views on Corbyn by the way, I've never liked him and I've openly said so on here. I have him on a par with May, BoJo etc which is why we are screwed as whoever wins it is a rum lot.

The politicians at the top/or highly influential behind the scenes of the 2 main parties are awful. Labour with Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Seamus Milne and Momentum whilst the alternative is May, BoJo, Liam Fox, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, the right wing faction (including the ERG) etc. And you want either side of this lot to negotiate new trade deals?! This country is screwed.
As I said, I discussed with Flean and I can't be arsed to go back again and repeat the same discussion. I have better things to do (shocking right). I opened the research I did earlier and thought nah, not going there again.

The last EU recession wrecked the bloc and they have really not recovered. That was with political stability that is not apparent now, with a big change coming in the European Parliament. It's hard enough to recover with a single economy, 27 is tough with some countries barely on the up tick. How willing are the Germans to bail out other countries again?

The reason I won't answer about timescales is because I simply don't have enough information about what trade discussions have been had and what timescales are for each deal. After all, I'm not a member of HMG. For example, if the UK joined TPP, the timescales would be different than if we didn't. Etc. Equally, could a No Deal last 3 months before a deal is agreed to with the UK and EU? So many imponderables.

Crawford Falconer is the man for trade discussions. I suggest you look him up as he ticks a lot of boxes, especially with the WTO.
 

Marked Ox

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As I said, I discussed with Flean and I can't be arsed to go back again and repeat the same discussion. I have better things to do (shocking right). I opened the research I did earlier and thought nah, not going there again.

The last EU recession wrecked the bloc and they have really not recovered. That was with political stability that is not apparent now, with a big change coming in the European Parliament. It's hard enough to recover with a single economy, 27 is tough with some countries barely on the up tick. How willing are the Germans to bail out other countries again?

The reason I won't answer about timescales is because I simply don't have enough information about what trade discussions have been had and what timescales are for each deal. After all, I'm not a member of HMG. For example, if the UK joined TPP, the timescales would be different than if we didn't. Etc. Equally, could a No Deal last 3 months before a deal is agreed to with the UK and EU? So many imponderables.

Crawford Falconer is the man for trade discussions. I suggest you look him up as he ticks a lot of boxes, especially with the WTO.
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/obligation. I leave this here then with a few bottles of Chilean and South African wine.

So you can predict all the variables to see the EU crashing and them not being able to mitigate the damage of us leaving under a crash out brexit, but can't do the same thing for the UK or estimate a very rough timescale due to too many variables.

Hahahaha, you really put the UK and the EU agreeing a trade deal in 3 months as a hypothetical when it has taken far longer over the Withdrawal Agreement and that isn't finished?!

The TPP would require a drop in food standards etc iirc as the US would insist. But then cheap US food might be necessary as leading Brexiteer economist Patrick Minford said a crash out brexit will pretty much destroy Agriculture and Manufacturing in this country.

That is one negotiator, so we have somebody who can maybe be involved with a couple of trade negotiations over a year. Who is going to do the rest?
 

Sheik djibouti

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227
And I see that Iain Duncan Smith has decided to drop the image of "resepctable" politician and come out as full-on WWII spiv, judging by his choice of hat.
1549389565738.png
He'll fit right in after a no-deal crash out.
 

Gary Baldi

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https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/obligation. I leave this here then with a few bottles of Chilean and South African wine.

So you can predict all the variables to see the EU crashing and them not being able to mitigate the damage of us leaving under a crash out brexit, but can't do the same thing for the UK or estimate a very rough timescale due to too many variables.

Hahahaha, you really put the UK and the EU agreeing a trade deal in 3 months as a hypothetical when it has taken far longer over the Withdrawal Agreement and that isn't finished?!

The TPP would require a drop in food standards etc iirc as the US would insist. But then cheap US food might be necessary as leading Brexiteer economist Patrick Minford said a crash out brexit will pretty much destroy Agriculture and Manufacturing in this country.

That is one negotiator, so we have somebody who can maybe be involved with a couple of trade negotiations over a year. Who is going to do the rest?
Nope, it's possible (and a scenario raised by some in the EU themselves, not the UK side), also possible (and we don't need to buy any food that doesn't meet our standards), there are other appointments also.
 

Marked Ox

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Nope, it's possible (and a scenario raised by some in the EU themselves, not the UK side), also possible (and we don't need to buy any food that doesn't meet our standards), there are other appointments also.
It won't happen as it would be a world record by a long way, unless our Govt bends over backwards of course. If we did that then we'd be better not leaving.

The US will insist on food standards being dropped, Congress is already under pressure from the Agricultural lobby and Trump has already demonstrated his willingness to support US Agriculture. So Chlorinated Chicken, hormone fed Beef will meet our standards. Food producers of processed food will see it as a lovely way to reduce costs (remember the Horsemeat scandal).

If we still have a food industry then to compete (apart from niche producers) we'd have to go the same way with the Beef/Chicken.
 

tonyw

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6 Dec 2017
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492
Bitter, much?

Comments like that will justify some Brexiteers reasons to leave with a No Deal.
Honestly, although I agree with some of the sentiments, especially with regards chancers like BoJo, it's clearly a conscious decision by Tusk to come out with this statement (rather than lashing out in frustration) and a really odd tactic if he wants a deal to get signed. You'd think this comment will do nothing but harden the Brexiteers' resolve to stand firm in not accepting what's on the table.

First sign that the EU are moving their thinking towards a No Deal scenario because they're giving up on the UK government being able to raise consensus around a workable proposal? They have, after all, been preparing for it much longer and put a lot more thought into the consequences than the UK has......


As an aside, got to love Rees-Mogg's response - "Mr Tusk is hardly in the Aquinas class as a theologian and he seems to have forgotten the commandment about not bearing false witness."
JRM.....man of the people. :rolleyes:
 

Whingit

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Bit of an odd statement. The characters he's on about had been consigned to hell long before Brexit came about.
 
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