Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

Brexit - Deal or No Deal?

  • Deal

    Votes: 44 29.1%
  • No Deal

    Votes: 74 49.0%
  • Call in the Donald

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Call in Noel Edmonds

    Votes: 4 2.6%
  • I don't care anymore

    Votes: 28 18.5%

  • Total voters
    151

Sharp Edges

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Over what period are you claiming that "the UK economy has somehow managed to grow more than the EUs"? if that happened whilst we were amember of the EU that suggests EU membership was economically very positive for the UK. Since the vote? Diane Coyle, Bennett professor of public policy, University of Cambridge disagrees with you

" Significantly. It already is of course. Apart from slower UK growth compared to other OECD economies, the fall in the pound raising the cost of imports will have done at least as much to hammer the high street as other factors like business rates or online competition. Uncertainty has a chilling effect on investment, hiring and spending plans at the best of times. This is not the best of times. It’s hard to believe any business in Britain will sign off on new investments or expansion at present. Of course there might be a short-term boost to sales of essentials before the end of March; I for one am stockpiling, given the number of our politicians who seem to think a no-deal exit is no problem. "
I work for an American company, currently the UK head office is being massively expanded, sales continue to grow as does the workforce. Would appear Diane Coyle is wrong.
 

Sharp Edges

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Well yes. If some of our exports to and from the EU are (for example) apples and some of our imports are also apples - which is true - our apples will become more expensive in the EU, thus leaving a gap for the countries in the EU to fill with their produce. Substitute 'apples' for virtually any product and you see the problem. It is more likely that the EU countries will sell to each other to fill any gaps we leave than we will suddenly find new markets for 44% of our exports. Each EU country is potentially losing it's export markets in one country - we are losing ours in 26!
True, its also true we can gain other countries, how many can they gain?
 

Gary Baldi

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Our Govt negotiated an agreement with the EU. The EU aren't the ones trying to change it hence it is our mess.
The UK Govt, are after an overwhelming expression of dislike of the deal by our Parliament (which is what people like yourself wanted BTW), are attempting to do something to get the deal through before we head to No Deal. If the EU want to keep it as is, good on them but there are consequences to their red lines as there are to ours.
 

ZeroTheHero

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True, its also true we can gain other countries, how many can they gain?
Why can't they trade with those same countries? Being in the EU does not mean you can only trade in the EU. Any idea that somehow the expanding (but still tiny in comparision with the EU) African markets will suddenly be there to take up the slack or that there any number of countries just waiting for us to be free from the EU to trade with us is just fantasy.
 

Marked Ox

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The UK Govt, are after an overwhelming expression of dislike of the deal by our Parliament (which is what people like yourself wanted BTW), are attempting to do something to get the deal through before we head to No Deal. If the EU want to keep it as is, good on them but there are consequences to their red lines as there are to ours.
May's deal was a car crash because of her very public, very early red lines and that has led to this situation.

The EU have remained consistent throughout that they won't (and can't anyway) compromise on the principles that the bloc operate on. This has been clear from the start, the EU haven't hidden it. And we are the ones wanting the divorce, the EU don't want us to leave.
 

Marked Ox

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Gary Baldi

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May's deal was a car crash because of her very public, very early red lines and that has led to this situation.

The EU have remained consistent throughout that they won't (and can't anyway) compromise on the principles that the bloc operate on. This has been clear from the start, the EU haven't hidden it. And we are the ones wanting the divorce, the EU don't want us to leave.
So we have to break our early red lines, but they don't because they are being consistent? Not sure that's how it works.

Still, their steadfast insistence on a red line that we can only talk about trade after the separation talks are complete has landed us at an impasse. I hope they like their process when they don't get their 39 billion!
 

Marked Ox

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So we have to break our early red lines, but they don't because they are being consistent? Not sure that's how it works.

Still, their steadfast insistence on a red line that we can only talk about trade after the separation talks are complete has landed us at an impasse. I hope they like their process when they don't get their 39 billion!
It will cost us a hell of a lot more than £39bn and that is assuming there are benefits in the long term (have to wait 50 years if Jacob Rees-Mogg is to believed).

Yes, the EU have been consistent as the EU is built on a group of principles that all work by. It really is that simple.

Yes because May set up red lines that boxed her and her Govt in from the off in negotiations. If May and her Govt had actually sorted themselves out instead of focusing on Tory Party infighting we may now have been discussing a trade deal.

Also, with the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement that will go a long way to mitigating damage to the EU economies if we have a crash out brexit. What are we going to do to mitigate the damage to our economy when we have no FTA with anybody?
 

YellowTaxi

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So we have to break our early red lines, but they don't because they are being consistent? Not sure that's how it works.

Still, their steadfast insistence on a red line that we can only talk about trade after the separation talks are complete has landed us at an impasse. I hope they like their process when they don't get their 39 billion!
39 billion is a relatively small amount in the scale of things -in an EU Budget of 169 Billion

What it means for the UK to renege on an agreement it has signed makes us a rogue state. Borrowing will be more expensive.

Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls.
Who steals my purse steals trash. 'Tis something, nothing:
'Twas mine, ’tis his, and has been slave to thousands.
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him
And makes me poor indeed.
 

Gary Baldi

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39 billion is a relatively small amount in the scale of things -in an EU Budget of 169 Billion

What it means for the UK to renege on an agreement it has signed makes us a rogue state. Borrowing will be more expensive.

Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls.
Who steals my purse steals trash. 'Tis something, nothing:
'Twas mine, ’tis his, and has been slave to thousands.
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him
And makes me poor indeed.
It is, but they have spent the money already as we are one of the few net contributors to the budget. We aren't reneging on anything as we triggered Article 50 and if nothing was agreed, we'd fall out. While all of us agree we don't want that, it's the reality
 

Gary Baldi

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It will cost us a hell of a lot more than £39bn and that is assuming there are benefits in the long term (have to wait 50 years if Jacob Rees-Mogg is to believed).

Yes, the EU have been consistent as the EU is built on a group of principles that all work by. It really is that simple.

Yes because May set up red lines that boxed her and her Govt in from the off in negotiations. If May and her Govt had actually sorted themselves out instead of focusing on Tory Party infighting we may now have been discussing a trade deal.

Also, with the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement that will go a long way to mitigating damage to the EU economies if we have a crash out brexit. What are we going to do to mitigate the damage to our economy when we have no FTA with anybody?
The 39 billion is the tip of the iceberg, but it will affect their day to day spending on 1st April. The EU set their red lines up too - early doors after the vote - no trade, no talk on citizenship when the UK asked until the separation is done. So we are where we are.

If the EU had, as requested, agreed to talk about trade while these negotiations wrapped up, there would be less angst over a never ending back up. They chose to stick a big red line in straight away. It's not Maybot's fault that their insistence of red line process made the deal parliamentarily toxic. If she had a carrot to say, the trade negotiations are going well, as we can see the back stop is unlikely to occur, it would be an easier pill to swallow. Blame your beloved EU for that ;)
 

YellowTaxi

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I know from this thread that the Brexiteer knowledge of economics is better than a Univeristy of Cambridge Professor because"I work for an American company, currently the UK head office is being massively expanded, sales continue to grow as does the workforce."

Nice to know that your knowledge of International Law is also better than Professor Iain Begg, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Emily Reid, Professor of International Economic Law at Southampton University

based as it is on the advice of David Davis Professor of Being Too f*****g Lazy to Turn Up and Boris Johnson, Professor of Never Having Told the Truth About Anything in his lLfe.
 

YellowTaxi

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More great news, guys.

"Sky Sources: Japanese car-maker Nissan is cancelling plans to build its X-Trail model at its plant in Sunderland"
 

Marked Ox

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The 39 billion is the tip of the iceberg, but it will affect their day to day spending on 1st April. The EU set their red lines up too - early doors after the vote - no trade, no talk on citizenship when the UK asked until the separation is done. So we are where we are.

If the EU had, as requested, agreed to talk about trade while these negotiations wrapped up, there would be less angst over a never ending back up. They chose to stick a big red line in straight away. It's not Maybot's fault that their insistence of red line process made the deal parliamentarily toxic. If she had a carrot to say, the trade negotiations are going well, as we can see the back stop is unlikely to occur, it would be an easier pill to swallow. Blame your beloved EU for that ;)
May made her deal toxic in parliament all on her own by sidelining the MPs from the outset and then fighting them when it challenged that. Remember the legal challenge her Govt lost and the appeal which her Govt also lost over Parliament having a vote.

May's red lines narrowed the talks from the off and limited her options from the off. Ironically May and her Govt still didn't know their negotiating position for a good 18 months or so after this point. Yet laughably you think the EU could negotiate with a party over a trade deal who didn't even know how they wanted to withdraw from the EU at the same time.

But like a lot of Brexiteers, you are desperately trying to rewrite history. ;)

As another poster points yet another Brexit dividend from Nissan, the sunny uplands are looking FANTASTIC so far. The EU can mitigate their far smaller losses/impact on the economy with the help of existing trade deals and new FTA with Japan.

Talk me through the UK mitigating the far greater impact on our economy with no FTAs and WTO terms with a crash out Brexit? How long do you expect Free Trade Agreements with the rest of the world to take?
 

Sharp Edges

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I know from this thread that the Brexiteer knowledge of economics is better than a Univeristy of Cambridge Professor because"I work for an American company, currently the UK head office is being massively expanded, sales continue to grow as does the workforce."

Nice to know that your knowledge of International Law is also better than Professor Iain Begg, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Emily Reid, Professor of International Economic Law at Southampton University

based as it is on the advice of David Davis Professor of Being Too f*****g Lazy to Turn Up and Boris Johnson, Professor of Never Having Told the Truth About Anything in his lLfe.
You need to work on your understanding of the English language. You quoted her as saying " It’s hard to believe any business in Britain will sign off on new investments or expansion at present". I highlighted she was wrong, I didnt claim to know more than her and I never mentioned international law. You criticise me for calling Junker Drunker, then produce the post above. Bravo to you, seems your ability to deal with anyone who dares to have an opinion different to you or produces facts to counter the theories you want to promote is beyond you.

Vodafone have just announced investment/expansion to their HQ in Newbury.
 

Gary Baldi

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May made her deal toxic in parliament all on her own by sidelining the MPs from the outset and then fighting them when it challenged that. Remember the legal challenge her Govt lost and the appeal which her Govt also lost over Parliament having a vote.

May's red lines narrowed the talks from the off and limited her options from the off. Ironically May and her Govt still didn't know their negotiating position for a good 18 months or so after this point. Yet laughably you think the EU could negotiate with a party over a trade deal who didn't even know how they wanted to withdraw from the EU at the same time.

But like a lot of Brexiteers, you are desperately trying to rewrite history. ;)

As another poster points yet another Brexit dividend from Nissan, the sunny uplands are looking FANTASTIC so far. The EU can mitigate their far smaller losses/impact on the economy with the help of existing trade deals and new FTA with Japan.

Talk me through the UK mitigating the far greater impact on our economy with no FTAs and WTO terms with a crash out Brexit? How long do you expect Free Trade Agreements with the rest of the world to take?
Both sides have had red lines, as you well know - the EUs day one red lines on citizens and trade restricted the ability for both sides to negotiate and manoeuvrer around issues :). It's ironic that parliamentary democracy could well lead to a no deal crash out - they very thing the Remainers didn't think would happen when they went to the courts to get a vote!

I said many months ago that the short term on deal would be hard for everyone - it will only be the medium to long term that the UK will mitigate a No Deal. I have been very honest about that and I am not naive about what it will bring. I also was clear I did not agree with the way the Govt negotiated. I would have got on with No Deal a lot earlier and been more proactive. And more salty at times.

But the impact to the EU and UK will be great. The economic interdependency will hurt both, but the UK will have more economic tools available outside of the EU - through state subsidies, etc - than in. Of course WTO is not ideal, but it's not the apocalyptical disaster it's made out to be. The EU are stuck in a jumbled economic mess and their funding will become more stretched. The slowdown and recessions in the bloc with a No Deal Brexit is about as bad as it can get for them. The UK will no longer be obligated to buy from the bloc.
 

Marked Ox

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Both sides have had red lines, as you well know - the EUs day one red lines on citizens and trade restricted the ability for both sides to negotiate and manoeuvrer around issues :). It's ironic that parliamentary democracy could well lead to a no deal crash out - they very thing the Remainers didn't think would happen when they went to the courts to get a vote!

I said many months ago that the short term on deal would be hard for everyone - it will only be the medium to long term that the UK will mitigate a No Deal. I have been very honest about that and I am not naive about what it will bring. I also was clear I did not agree with the way the Govt negotiated. I would have got on with No Deal a lot earlier and been more proactive. And more salty at times.

But the impact to the EU and UK will be great. The economic interdependency will hurt both, but the UK will have more economic tools available outside of the EU - through state subsidies, etc - than in. Of course WTO is not ideal, but it's not the apocalyptical disaster it's made out to be. The EU are stuck in a jumbled economic mess and their funding will become more stretched. The slowdown and recessions in the bloc with a No Deal Brexit is about as bad as it can get for them. The UK will no longer be obligated to buy from the bloc.

We aren't obligated to buy from EU, where have you got that from?

Also, the EU have just completed a FTA with Japan that covers a huge % of the global GDP which will help mitigation significantly for the EU, coupled with the moving of businesses into EU countries to maintain frictionless/tariff free access (It is already happening) and access to the markets that the EU already have FTAs with. Also, you keep talking about the EU being in an economic mess:

I can find this which suggests GDP growth over the longer term in the EU is better than the UK: https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

So talk me through your evidence?


How long do you think it will take us to mitigate a crash out Brexit? How long is your short term? After all Jacob Rees-Mogg talked about 50 years to see any Brexit benefits. Couple this with the need to have to negotiate with absolutely everybody worldwide, it will be a slow process to work through all these countries through simple logistics (never mind the complexities of each negotiation) as we have few negotiators and they have little experience then I suggest it will be an economic disaster for at least 20 years.

And those economic tools will mean little if they can't negate the tariffs (which will last for years and maybe in plenty of cases decades) or are you suggesting, as an example, that our Govt subsidise Lamb/Sheep farmers by an additional 40%+?. Do you really think the US will allow state subsidies in any FTA with us but I bet they insist on lower food standards etc and as the far smaller negotiating partner we won't be in a strong position to say no. Where will the money come from for subsidies etc as a huge chunk of any supposed savings will need to go into the ongoing cost of developing the bureaucracy to do the jobs that pan EU organisations currently do and expanding existing Govt depts/expenditure to handle a crash out Brexit (ie. Increased Customs officers) That doesn't even take into account the economic impact on GDP and taxes of a crash out Brexit which you acknowledge will be great.

This is only looking at the economic impact of course, we haven't even considered the impact on things like scientific research (which also has positive economic spin offs), security co-operation (European arrest warrant/anti terror co-operation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445 ) etc etc.
 
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