National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

Brexit - Deal or No Deal?

  • Deal

    Votes: 50 30.1%
  • No Deal

    Votes: 74 44.6%
  • Call in the Donald

    Votes: 3 1.8%
  • Call in Noel Edmonds

    Votes: 6 3.6%
  • I don't care anymore

    Votes: 33 19.9%

  • Total voters
    166

Gary Baldi

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The point about the Lamb/Sheep Industry was overnight it would be screwed by losing its biggest market. Hill Farming doesn't have big margins to begin with so they wouldn't have the resources to survive until a new market is found.
I don't disagree. What we don't know is two fold. 1) Will the market completely disappear over night and how likely is that? 2) Are other economic areas already aware of this and ready to buy?

As I say, we just don't know!
 

Marked Ox

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I don't disagree. What we don't know is two fold. 1) Will the market completely disappear over night and how likely is that? 2) Are other economic areas already aware of this and ready to buy?

As I say, we just don't know!
Iirc, should a crash out Brexit happen, the suggestion is a 40% tariff for British Lamb exports to the EU would be added on so it is a very good chance the industry at the best would be severely affected with that price increase.
 

Gary Baldi

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Iirc, should a crash out Brexit happen, the suggestion is a 40% tariff for British Lamb exports to the EU would be added on so it is a very good chance the industry at the best would be severely affected with that price increase.
As a civilian, the politicians will be very aware of that on both sides, with others outside wanting to take advantage. Of course, it applies on both sides of the channel, with Dutch Onion sellers worried about their business. And vineyards, cheese makers, etc.

At the moment though, we have no inkling over what will actually happen or ultimately what tariffs could be levied.
 

Marked Ox

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As a civilian, the politicians will be very aware of that on both sides, with others outside wanting to take advantage. Of course, it applies on both sides of the channel, with Dutch Onion sellers worried about their business. And vineyards, cheese makers, etc.

At the moment though, we have no inkling over what will actually happen or ultimately what tariffs could be levied.
Those talking about the tariffs on the Lamb/Sheep Industry seemed very certain about 40%. I expect the EU tariffs will be known for 3rd party countries (which we would be 1) under only WTO terms, what our tariffs would be is open for debate.
 

Gary Baldi

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And importantly both sides, tariffs zeroed out cover a multitude of things. What will the effect be on economies in the EU on the verge of a recession?
 

Sharp Edges

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And importantly both sides, tariffs zeroed out cover a multitude of things. What will the effect be on economies in the EU on the verge of a recession?
Thats for the EU to decide. Its okay Drunker standing up saying they wont budge but if we crash out how will Greece, Spain and Portugal feel about us being unable to buy from them - or a tariff making food so expensive we dont bother? Those three are in huge shite as it is.
 

Gary Baldi

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Thats for the EU to decide. Its okay Drunker standing up saying they wont budge but if we crash out how will Greece, Spain and Portugal feel about us being unable to buy from them - or a tariff making food so expensive we dont bother? Those three are in huge shite as it is.
The UK economy has somehow managed to grow more than the EUs, so the southern states will not want to end up falling into a recession over Brexit when they are very close to it now. Even in Germany. If they had not been so insistent on a negotiating red line, its more than Ilkley a trade deal will have been in progress, so the angst over the back stop will be smaller. That is the EUs mess!
 

Marked Ox

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The UK economy has somehow managed to grow more than the EUs, so the southern states will not want to end up falling into a recession over Brexit when they are very close to it now. Even in Germany. If they had not been so insistent on a negotiating red line, its more than Ilkley a trade deal will have been in progress, so the angst over the back stop will be smaller. That is the EUs mess!
Still waiting on the forlorn hope that the German car companies to come to our rescue then. We were told by the Brexiteers that these negotiations would be easy.

It is our mess, remember May's red lines?! The EU have been consistent on their position and our Govt know the basic principles that the EU and the single market operate on.
 

Sharp Edges

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The UK economy has somehow managed to grow more than the EUs, so the southern states will not want to end up falling into a recession over Brexit when they are very close to it now. Even in Germany. If they had not been so insistent on a negotiating red line, its more than Ilkley a trade deal will have been in progress, so the angst over the back stop will be smaller. That is the EUs mess!
Exactly, so what do they do? Stick two fingers up to the countries that need to trade with us most to punish us for leaving their club or lose face and do whats best for their member countries?
 

tonyw

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Thats for the EU to decide. Its okay Drunker standing up saying they wont budge but if we crash out how will Greece, Spain and Portugal feel about us being unable to buy from them - or a tariff making food so expensive we dont bother? Those three are in huge shite as it is.
Just some numbers (from 2017, I believe):

6.6% of Portugal's exports were to the UK
6.9% of Spain's exports were to the UK
3.9% of Greece's exports were to the UK

44% of the UK's exports were to the EU

If tariffs make exports so expensive that the importing countries don't bother, it's bad for everyone. But it's not hard to see who's worst affected.
 

YellowTaxi

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Over what period are you claiming that "the UK economy has somehow managed to grow more than the EUs"? if that happened whilst we were amember of the EU that suggests EU membership was economically very positive for the UK. Since the vote? Diane Coyle, Bennett professor of public policy, University of Cambridge disagrees with you

" Significantly. It already is of course. Apart from slower UK growth compared to other OECD economies, the fall in the pound raising the cost of imports will have done at least as much to hammer the high street as other factors like business rates or online competition. Uncertainty has a chilling effect on investment, hiring and spending plans at the best of times. This is not the best of times. It’s hard to believe any business in Britain will sign off on new investments or expansion at present. Of course there might be a short-term boost to sales of essentials before the end of March; I for one am stockpiling, given the number of our politicians who seem to think a no-deal exit is no problem. "
 
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tonyw

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But what they are doing is two fold. Making a bitter pill easier to swallow by putting a time limit on it, and as we've seen now, 2 years may not be enough time to negotiate the deal. The spectre of a no deal getting bigger and bigger, or a longer time period to get a trade deal to avoid a backstop? What's worse?

We are rapidly heading to a No Deal that means WTO terms, no £39 billion pay off and immediate trade harder for the EU and the UK. Suddenly, the world opens up to the UK, and while it will incur significant issues...
So in other words, don't make a decision now on how to manage the UK-EU border post-Brexit but pre-Trade Deal - just kick the can down the road for a while longer?

I thought Brexiteers were against can-kicking?
 

Gary Baldi

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Still waiting on the forlorn hope that the German car companies to come to our rescue then. We were told by the Brexiteers that these negotiations would be easy.

It is our mess, remember May's red lines?! The EU have been consistent on their position and our Govt know the basic principles that the EU and the single market operate on.
Not even thinking about German car manufacturers, but you do remind me how EU wide a no deal will hurt, especially when they are teetering on recession. It's the EUs red line that means we are lurching to a no deal because they insisted on this process. Both sides have given and taken in this, for example the EU gave a little on fishing rights.

So in other words, don't make a decision now on how to manage the UK-EU border post-Brexit but pre-Trade Deal - just kick the can down the road for a while longer?

I thought Brexiteers were against can-kicking?
By, for example. being able to start on a trade deal 6 months ago, it would enable the UK and EU to see an end to the negotiations and provide a guide to whether the back stop is high or low percentage to come in, thus hopefully reducing the toxicity of it all. The EUs insistence on doing this in the way we have has made a paragraph or two in a 550 page doc a big thing.
 

YellowTaxi

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You don't make any sense - but the nether does the UK. the Uk decided to leave. It spent a lot of time pissing about. Signed an agreement which delivered what it asked for- incluging a backstop then asked the Eu not to implement what it had negotiated. And Signed. That's not the EU;s insitence.

You can' sign a document you've negotiated and then claim you had your fingers crossed when you signed that 'paragraph or two in a 550 page doc . That's beyond Nick merry standards.
 

Marked Ox

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Not even thinking about German car manufacturers, but you do remind me how EU wide a no deal will hurt, especially when they are teetering on recession. It's the EUs red line that means we are lurching to a no deal because they insisted on this process. Both sides have given and taken in this, for example the EU gave a little on fishing rights.


By, for example. being able to start on a trade deal 6 months ago, it would enable the UK and EU to see an end to the negotiations and provide a guide to whether the back stop is high or low percentage to come in, thus hopefully reducing the toxicity of it all. The EUs insistence on doing this in the way we have has made a paragraph or two in a 550 page doc a big thing.
Our Govt negotiated an agreement with the EU. The EU aren't the ones trying to change it hence it is our mess.
 

Sharp Edges

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Just some numbers (from 2017, I believe):

6.6% of Portugal's exports were to the UK
6.9% of Spain's exports were to the UK
3.9% of Greece's exports were to the UK

44% of the UK's exports were to the EU

If tariffs make exports so expensive that the importing countries don't bother, it's bad for everyone. But it's not hard to see who's worst affected.
Possibly. Of course we would be able to sell the missing 44% elsewhere, can they? All those countries owe the EU hundreds of billions so losing trade has greater importance, unless you believe they owe so much it will never be paid back so actually its irrelevant.
What % does Ireland export to the UK?
 

ZeroTheHero

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Of course we would be able to sell the missing 44% elsewhere, can they?
Well yes. If some of our exports to and from the EU are (for example) apples and some of our imports are also apples - which is true - our apples will become more expensive in the EU, thus leaving a gap for the countries in the EU to fill with their produce. Substitute 'apples' for virtually any product and you see the problem. It is more likely that the EU countries will sell to each other to fill any gaps we leave than we will suddenly find new markets for 44% of our exports. Each EU country is potentially losing it's export markets in one country - we are losing ours in 26!
 
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