BMW plant - Brexit

[Northstandboy]

Surprised the OM is not all over this:

BMW may shift Mini and engine work from UK in no-deal Brexit

Another carmaker slams the brakes on prospects for its UK workers if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.

news.sky.com

 

[Ian]

Nothing unexpected - from those who know a little bit about manufacturing and international supply lines and trade. In fact, Professor Minford, champion of the Brexiters desperate for economic justification, has said that manufacturing in the UK will be devastated by Brexit - but he believes we can simply move on as with the coal industry.

 

[Steve McAvoy]

Always refreshing to hare Minford’s take on the world; ‘these things happen.’ Well, they don’t happen to Patrick Milford, they happen to other people, so from his point of view it is always a price worth paying.

 

[Paul Cannell]

Nothing unexpected - from those who know a little bit about manufacturing and international supply lines and trade. In fact, Professor Minford, champion of the Brexiters desperate for economic justification, has said that manufacturing in the UK will be devastated by Brexit - but he believes we can simply move on as with the coal industry.

Large parts of the country could not 'simply move on' after the destruction of the coal industry - a generation was ruined and people's way of life was irrevocably altered for the worse in many mining areas.

[comment on Minford's opinion, not @Ian's.

 

[Paul Cannell]

For balance, I'd also like to hear specific examples of how Brexit will enrich our lives, rather than the rehashing of slogans and soundbites ('leave means leave' etc).

Well, here's 2:
people between 22 and 66 will on average have more free time and less money,
people between 18 and 22 will have lots more time and no work or money.

Brexit means enhanced leisure experiences.

 

[Paul Cannell]

The UK might have only sealed six trade deals....

It's never that many. Either Mr Fox is fibbing or Mr Werrity's been fiddling with his balls on the abacus again.

 

[Essexyellows]

"BMW may shift......."

Equally they may not!

Lets not forget the car factory isn`t the same as when my generation left school, nor is it the same as when my father worked there.
Ironically in "Stores" , something no longer needed by the "LEAN/JIT" modern way of working.

Things change, people adapt. Companies are only interested in the bottom line.

Just look at the Mini crankshaft........ Cast in France, machined in Birmingham, put in the engine in Munich, then the engine gets put in the car in Oxford.

And we complain about waste & global warming???? Pissshhhh.

 

[YellowTaxi]

"BMW may shift......."

Equally they may not!

Lets not forget the car factory isn`t the same as when my generation left school, nor is it the same as when my father worked there.
Ironically in "Stores" , something no longer needed by the "LEAN/JIT" modern way of working.

Things change, people adapt. Companies are only interested in the bottom line.

Just look at the Mini crankshaft........

And we complain about waste & global warming???? Pissshhhh.

That was how it happened when we were in the EU.

Now it it will be
"Cast in France, machined in The Netherlands, put in the engine in Munich, then the engine gets put in the car in Austria"

 

[OUFCGav]

"BMW may shift......."

Equally they may not!

Lets not forget the car factory isn`t the same as when my generation left school, nor is it the same as when my father worked there.
Ironically in "Stores" , something no longer needed by the "LEAN/JIT" modern way of working.

Things change, people adapt. Companies are only interested in the bottom line.

Just look at the Mini crankshaft........ Cast in France, machined in Birmingham, put in the engine in Munich, then the engine gets put in the car in Oxford.

And we complain about waste & global warming???? Pissshhhh.

Yes they are only interested in the bottom line, but if port delays mean the line is stopped (believe it comes in at £50,000 a minute for an unplanned stoppage), then they will be affected, will look for a better option for them, and that will affect thousands of people in the UK that have jobs both directly and indirectly associated. As we are cutting off our nose to spite our face we want to be encouraging businesses and making sure they are as confident as possible as to future plans for the country, instead as that video shows, nobody in the brexit leading government actually gives the slightest **** about manufacturing or the people employed.

 

[OUFCGav]

Nonsense! The UK might have only sealed six trade deals in nearly three years of trying, but come the day of Brexit trade delegates will be queuing in Whitehall to sign tariff-free agreements with us, because we're GREAT. We just need to hold our nerve and shovel up the wealth.

of course the 7 trade deals they have secured aren't actually new. they are continuation (or rollover) deals - ie the same terms as we currently have with the EU (so what is the point in leaving?). The "big" 7 deals are with Switzerland, Chile, Mauritius, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Seychelles and the Faroe Islands (totalling less than 2.2% of our exports).

 

[Ox4Eva]

German government pulling the strings, not hard to see through this!

 

[Sheik Djibouti]

of course the 7 trade deals they have secured aren't actually new. they are continuation (or rollover) deals - ie the same terms as we currently have with the EU (so what is the point in leaving?). The "big" 7 deals are with Switzerland, Chile, Mauritius, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Seychelles and the Faroe Islands (totalling less than 2.2% of our exports).

Altogether now....."Walking in a Brexit Wonderland "

 

[Essexyellows]

Yes they are only interested in the bottom line, but if port delays mean the line is stopped (believe it comes in at £50,000 a minute for an unplanned stoppage), then they will be affected, will look for a better option for them, and that will affect thousands of people in the UK that have jobs both directly and indirectly associated. As we are cutting off our nose to spite our face we want to be encouraging businesses and making sure they are as confident as possible as to future plans for the country, instead as that video shows, nobody in the brexit leading government actually gives the slightest **** about manufacturing or the people employed.

Have they not already rejigged the maintenance shutdown to minimise impact?
The reality (much as folk seem to be avoiding it) is that the majority that voted voted to leave.
HMG have been kicking the can around and dithering for more than 2 years in the vain hope that "something" might knock it off the rails.
An election? Nope had one of those. No confidence motion? Nope had one of those.

Its like the Miners strike, nobody gave a slightest **** about collieries and now those areas have moved on to other things......... some changes are small, some are big.

Crack on and get it done...it is the uncertainty that is causing the damage nothing else.

PS: Half my week is taken up "planning continuity" post Brexit and considering all options. If I was only looking at one outcome such as WTO default it would be much easier!

 

[OUFCGav]

Have they not already rejigged the maintenance shutdown to minimise impact?
The reality (much as folk seem to be avoiding it) is that the majority that voted voted to leave.
HMG have been kicking the can around and dithering for more than 2 years in the vain hope that "something" might knock it off the rails.
An election? Nope had one of those. No confidence motion? Nope had one of those.

Its like the Miners strike, nobody gave a slightest **** about collieries and now those areas have moved on to other things......... some changes are small, some are big.

Crack on and get it done...it is the uncertainty that is causing the damage nothing else.

PS: Half my week is taken up "planning continuity" post Brexit and considering all options. If I was only looking at one outcome such as WTO default it would be much easier!

only for the first couple of weeks. if we crash out with no deal, the disruption will last longer than that. If we crash out with no deal we will have large WTO tariffs and trade obligations that we are in no way ready to deal with - there are thousands that would need to be employed at the ports to cope (the magical 'technological developments' that the brexiteers promise is a fantasy of the future).

Yes the majority that voted did so to leave, but how many were influenced by the lies peddled by the illegally funded, foreign backed campaign, led up to by the lies peddled by a chunk of the media in the years before (remember things like the straight banana story - made up (and he admits so) by Boris Johnson when he was a journalist for the Telegraph). But even allowing for that, most of them would have hoped that someone somewhere had an actual plan and that the things that were promised could be delivered. But the one thing you notice about all the leading brexiteers, they have all run away from any actual responsibility. The "easiest trade deals in history" haven't happened (unless you are desperate for goods from the Faroe Islands. The people left have discovered exactly what was predicted, that shooting yourself in the foot is harder than you would imagine.

Many of the areas where mining was closed down are still devastated and abandoned.

WTO is in reality neither easy, nor good for business. The only countries actively relying solely on WTO trading rules are:

• Holy See
• Mauritania
• Monaco
• Montenegro
• Palau
• Timor-Leste
• Sao Tome and Principe
• Serbia
• Somalia
• South Sudan
• Sudan
• Western Sahara

Any trade deals with our major partners are likely to take years, and we will be negotiating from a position of weakness and desperation. The US is already drawing up their list of demands, and its not good for us (very good for them). India has already demanded an expanded and easier access visa system in return - so the control of our borders keeping out the immigrants argument will actually cause more immigration, just from different countries.

 

[Essexyellows]

"Solely on WTO"..... we wont be. You seem to neglect the fact that we are a consumer nation ...that drives supply. The "how it gets here & what it costs" is a moot point. If your Starbucks skinny latte goes up by 10p you adjust accordingly. The US ............................ we have a [B]surplus[/B] of circa £34 billion with the US accounting for 18% of exports. The EU ...........................we have a [B]deficit[/B] of circa £80 billion accounting for 43% of exports. More here: https://fullfact.org/economy/trade-deficit-surplus-USA-EU/ PS: Dont mention chicken..... the purpose of chlorination is to reduce post slaughter pathogens that currently kill folk over here.
More here: https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...d01a494/1500804930480/Chlorinated+Chicken.pdf

 

[ZeroTheHero]

The purpose of chlorinated chicken is to allow the US producers to have virtually no health standards in their production, relying on chemicals to wash everything off at the last moment. Which (oddly enough) allows them to produce stuff cheaper than those with decent health and animal welfare standards.

That 'paper' you link to is produced by the Adam Smith Institute, who as well as their extreme free-market policies also want to slash (further) tax for the rich and dismantle the NHS in favour of US 'health' companies - forgive me if I take it with a very large pinch of very strong snuff.

 

[YellowTaxi]

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, around 48 million people in the US are affected by foodborne illnesses each year – around 14.8% of the population.
While salmonella is estimated to cause 1.2 million illnesses annually, infecting approximately 0.37% of Americans, around 0.4% of the population get sick as a result of campylobacter, with 1.3 million cases estimated each year.
However, cases in the UK are much lower. According to government data, just 0.096% of the population were affected by campylobacter in 2017, with just under 64,000 cases estimated.
Meanwhile, instances of salmonella were even less frequent. Just 0.015% of UK citizens were infected in 2017, with 10,089 cases confirmed.






https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...y-mp-comic-relief_uk_5c77e342e4b0952f89dee77c

 

[RyanioBirdio]

God, are we still using the “Well the majority voted for it so there!” spiel.

Here’s a thought. Maybe the majority who turned out bet on the wrong horse, and the adults should step in before it all completely goes to s**t.

“You didn’t save my life, you ruined my death!” springs to mind.

My word we are screwed with so many people doubling down rather than going “Do you know what... maybe this isn’t as good as we thought at the time.”

 

[Ian]

only for the first couple of weeks. if we crash out with no deal, the disruption will last longer than that. If we crash out with no deal we will have large WTO tariffs and trade obligations that we are in no way ready to deal with - there are thousands that would need to be employed at the ports to cope (the magical 'technological developments' that the brexiteers promise is a fantasy of the future).

Yes the majority that voted did so to leave, but how many were influenced by the lies peddled by the illegally funded, foreign backed campaign, led up to by the lies peddled by a chunk of the media in the years before (remember things like the straight banana story - made up (and he admits so) by Boris Johnson when he was a journalist for the Telegraph). But even allowing for that, most of them would have hoped that someone somewhere had an actual plan and that the things that were promised could be delivered. But the one thing you notice about all the leading brexiteers, they have all run away from any actual responsibility. The "easiest trade deals in history" haven't happened (unless you are desperate for goods from the Faroe Islands. The people left have discovered exactly what was predicted, that shooting yourself in the foot is harder than you would imagine.

Many of the areas where mining was closed down are still devastated and abandoned.

WTO is in reality neither easy, nor good for business. The only countries actively relying solely on WTO trading rules are:

• Holy See
• Mauritania
• Monaco
• Montenegro
• Palau
• Timor-Leste
• Sao Tome and Principe
• Serbia
• Somalia
• South Sudan
• Sudan
• Western Sahara

Any trade deals with our major partners are likely to take years, and we will be negotiating from a position of weakness and desperation. The US is already drawing up their list of demands, and its not good for us (very good for them). India has already demanded an expanded and easier access visa system in return - so the control of our borders keeping out the immigrants argument will actually cause more immigration, just from different countries.

I believe your list to be wrong. Monaco not only uses the Euro, it's a member of the Customs Union.

Mauritania also has trade agreements.

There's some research online that knocked every single country off the list of notions solely relying on WTO terms.

 

[YellowTaxi]

You're making a mistake Ian, by trying to rely on research. Whether it's Brexit or climate change the usual subjects have no interest in facts or evidence

 

[Sheik Djibouti]

 

[Essexyellows]

God, are we still using the “Well the majority voted for it so there!” spiel.

Here’s a thought. Maybe the majority who turned out bet on the wrong horse, and the adults should step in before it all completely goes to s**t.

“You didn’t save my life, you ruined my death!” springs to mind.

My word we are screwed with so many people doubling down rather than going “Do you know what... maybe this isn’t as good as we thought at the time.”

I`ve changed my mind since the first referendum thanks to the information available.
Like you say its those with the experience of what we thought we signed up to that have said "Hold on a minute"... the adults.

 

[Essexyellows]

Observation (no science): seems self-evident that on this and other Brexit-related threads, there are plenty of posters who are very concerned about the potentially detrimental effects of leaving.

Very few posters seem confident that 'everything will be alright' even though we're led to believe that around half of the voting population are still leavers.

I will reasonably deduce from this observation that fewer leavers on here have strong arguments they are willing to share online.

Dont fear what you dont know. Just because the "easy option" is stay as you are, doesn`t mean the alternative is the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

 

[holdsteady]

Observation (no science): seems self-evident that on this and other Brexit-related threads, there are plenty of posters who are very concerned about the potentially detrimental effects of leaving.

Very few posters seem confident that 'everything will be alright' even though we're led to believe that around half of the voting population are still leavers.

I will reasonably deduce from this observation that fewer leavers on here have strong arguments they are willing to share online.

Or they have busy lives and wasting it debating politics on an Oxford United football forum is not a big priority.

 

[OUFCGav]

I believe your list to be wrong. Monaco not only uses the Euro, it's a member of the Customs Union.

Mauritania also has trade agreements.

There's some research online that knocked every single country off the list of notions solely relying on WTO terms.

well, it was the list trumpeted by the government!

 

[JuanPabloRaponi]

German government pulling the strings, not hard to see through this!

A couple of right wing leaning media mogul billionaires pulling the strings, really not very hard to see through that either

 

[Sheik Djibouti]

Right, so leavers have busy lives but remainers don't. Got it.

We'll all be unemployed soon anyway...plenty of time to debate what went wrong then[emoji6]

 

[holdsteady]

Right, so leavers have busy lives but remainers don't. Got it.

Well one remained could definitely do with finding something else to do with all the spare time he has on his hands.

 

[Peterdev]

I, as a leaver, still believe it is the right option. I do accept that there will be challenges faced by us as there have been by members of the EU.
The serious issue we face at the moment is the length of time it has taken exit. The only issue dominating at the moment is brexit. The politicians want to stay in regardless of the referendum outcome...they called the referendum and don’t like what has happened and want to reverse the result.
Firstly we may find the exit date is delayed, then we might face calls for a second referendum to be called.
I think a deal needs to be negotiated as a hard brexit is likely to cause damage in the short to medium term
But the real problem is uncertainty what is going to happen on March 29.
Industry would be less concerned if there was less uncertainty

 

[werthersoriginal]

I, as a leaver, still believe it is the right option. I do accept that there will be challenges faced by us as there have been by members of the EU.
The serious issue we face at the moment is the length of time it has taken exit. The only issue dominating at the moment is brexit. The politicians want to stay in regardless of the referendum outcome...they called the referendum and don’t like what has happened and want to reverse the result.
Firstly we may find the exit date is delayed, then we might face calls for a second referendum to be called.
I think a deal needs to be negotiated as a hard brexit is likely to cause damage in the short to medium term
But the real problem is uncertainty what is going to happen on March 29.
Industry would be less concerned if there was less uncertainty

Did it never occur to you as significant that most politicians on both sides, who are generally educated successful people , are against it? Most of those in favour just want a US style low wage economy with few rights for workers. It’s ordinary younger people who will suffer