National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Maldonyellow]

Mcdonald? You mean Ronald? Deffo do a better job than the other clown.

 

[Gary Baldi]

David Cameron (who I disagree with on many things) said, and I quote:

"Whenever we turn our back on Europe, sooner or later we come to regret it... we have always had to go back in, and always at much higher cost. The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament to the price this country has paid to help restore peace and order in Europe. Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption."

And you're seriously saying because we are not currently at war (which he didn't predict) even though we haven't actually left yet anyway- That's a 'lie' in your book? Really?

He wasn't saying 'As soon as Brexit happens WW3 WILL happen straight after' - and I think that you know he wasn't. He was making a wider point about the UK being part of a united Europe to help keep the peace, and have more stability as a larger block of countries. Which you can agree with or not, but to say that remainers lied (yes, maybe they did in other cases) because of that speech by David Cameron not leading to actual WW3 (again, before we've even left yet) is frankly ridiculous.

This is the problem with Brexit - probably on both sides, but I see it more from Brexiteers to be honest - people don't look at facts or truths, they twist whatever they can to try and get support for their unwavering, unswerving, unquestionable belief, faith even. It's more like a religion than a political view.

We are not at war with anyone in the EU - have you seen it anywhere? I'm just checking after nearly 3 1/2 years.

Brexit wise:
Is there prospect of a war on mainland Europe as a consequence of Brexit? No. Do you think there is?
How does the UKs membership of NATO mean that it wouldn't help in a mainland war in Europe or maintain it's stability?
Why would the UK get into a war in Europe?
How would this happen when, for example, there is a persistent lack of appetite for it. Even Hungary for all their sabre rattling seems to have no desire for war.

So unless I'm completely missing the prospect of war, Cameron told a bit fat whopper to worry people into leaving the EU.

And the mere fact you Remainers constantly sneer at Leavers for lack of facts, when, as you will have seen, I've spent months asking for the facts on an a second referendum, and only one poster to their absolute credit has bothered to provide a good response.

 

[Marked Ox]

Who knows with Corbyn, McDonald, & Abbott. The latest polls don’t make happy reading for Labour.
However to run away from a GE now that a no deal is off the table would not be a good look!

No deal is not off the table at least until/if an extension happens. And then it isn't anyway if you read the small print in Johnson's deal, why do you think the ERG are supporting it?

 

[Gary Baldi]

I've been on record on here about 1000 times as saying I think referendums are a bad idea in Britain, because that's not how our democracy has been set up, and as a result we're terrible at them.....

…..but as for how you would have a referendum at this stage, I think there's a simple mechanism.
First the EU grants Britain a three month extension (which seems likely, unless Macron gets his way)
Then the Withdrawal bill goes back to parliament for a debate, but the MPs vote to tack on an amendment that requires it to first be approved by a national referendum before passing into law. If you believe some of the things Corbyn is saying, then Labour would likely back a bill with this amendment, so there's a high chance it could pass (both the amendment itself, and the amended bill)
Then you hold that confirmatory referendum some time before January.

The only reason this wouldn't happen is because BoJo is opposed (what's he afraid of?) so the Tories would likely kill the amended bill before it could be voted on. Meaning we would likely have to have a General Election first, before this course of action could proceed......
…..and if BoJo then won a parliamentary majority, it would render the whole discussion moot.

Ignoring the 'referendums are bad' argument for a second, such a confirmatory referendum would seem like a very rational course of action.
In 2016, people were asked to vote on whether or not to leave the EU without a detailed understanding of what Brexit actually meant (and if anyone wants to argue with that statement - show me one single article during the entire Brexit campaign, even from the Remain side, that stated that post-Brexit, goods would be subject to a customs check upon crossing the Irish Sea!)

Now, in 2019, we know what Brexit is going to look like - it's BoJo's deal. So what's the harm in going back to the people and saying "OK, now we now what Brexit actually means - at least in the short term - are you sure that's what you want?"
If the people say "Yes, that's what we want" then the bill gets passed and Brexit happens.
If the people say "Hell no, that's not what we were voting for" then the bill fails, and we're back in Brexit purgatory - but at least we haven't made a major, irreversible decision that the majority of the population don't want.

Thanks for taking the time to do that - it's a credit that someone has provided a deep dive on it!

I don't believe, and I am likely wrong, that a vote has to be on the lines of the last one - so deal or no deal would likely be a way out, but something Remainers wouldn't understandably want to countenance. Or a May's Deal vs Johnson's Deal. The multi tier votes I've seen proposed would be problematic as they would likely provide no clear result and no way forward.

It doesn't look there are the numbers in parliament for a 2nd referendum nor the consensus on what it should be. 4 times they have tried and fail.

As you say, the biggest enemy of this is time. There is not enough of it and Parliament's paralysis means it just won't happen - almost time for Remainers to move on from the idea for the moment until a Labour Govt get in - but who would trust them to just say no and move on.

 

[Gary Baldi]

Eh, I had posted this on the other thread, but it probably fits better here.....

Good - it's overdue.

Almost impossible to see how Corbyn and Labour could refuse this now.
Assuming that the EU do grant the extension (and they should know before Monday, when they're supposed to vote on the GE), then No Deal Brexit is now off-the-table, because a BoJo-led parliament would do his deal, so that is no longer an excuse to duck an election.
"Our polling is terrible, and we fear we're going to get decimated" is not an argument that's going to generate a lot of sympathy. You can't put party over country at a time when our parliament is clearly and unambiguously dysfunctional.

If it happens, the big wild card then becomes Farage.
He hates the deal - but does he hate it enough to campaign widely and loudly against it? And if he does, can he convince enough voters that "it's not Brexit" so that the Brexit Party becomes a significant force?
If he does, then with the Lib Dems likely to make gains in Remain areas, a BoJo majority will not be guaranteed.

Also, the voting numbers for Farage will split with the Johnson deal with numbers heading back to the Tories, so he has a tough job as Boris does with turning Labour voters into Tories and losing some Tories to the Lib Dems for this election. The electoral map is shifting, bigly

 

[Yellow River]

Also, the voting numbers for Farage will split with the Johnson deal with numbers heading back to the Tories, so he has a tough job as Boris does with turning Labour voters into Tories and losing some Tories to the Lib Dems for this election. The electoral map is shifting, bigly

If there is a GE then I think we will see the biggest push ever seen for tactical voting.

I think I read somewhere that Gina Miller has already said that she has drawn up plans for each constituency and will be telling voters who to vote for on a tactical basis.

Personally I could never vote for Corbyn, McDonald, Abbott even for tactical reasons ( I have voted Labour in the past) The stench of anti semitism hanging over Labour is too over powering.

 

[Steve McAvoy]

Bit of a mystery why Labour to date have not signed up to an election. Why not held to bail out the Conservative Party from their Brexit fiasco, why not bail out the Tory Press from their Brexit fiasco, why not agree with a privileged liar to resolve a mess of his very own making. A mystery.

 

[Essexyellows]

Diane Abbott on BBC Breakfast was a sight to behold........................ it beggars belief how she got to hold such office, it really does. Inarticulate, slow minded and painfully out of her depth.

Naga asked her ..... "If the EU grant an extension (very likely) will you vote for a GE?"

Her response "Only if No deal is off the table" ............

The one thing that is keeping peoples minds focused (sorry Pep!) is the prospect of "No Deal".

FFS do one or the other...... get Boris`s "deal" through or have a GE!

50/50? Phone a friend?

 

[Marked Ox]

Diane Abbott on BBC Breakfast was a sight to behold........................ it beggars belief how she got to hold such office, it really does. Inarticulate, slow minded and painfully out of her depth.

Naga asked her ..... "If the EU grant an extension (very likely) will you vote for a GE?"

Her response "Only if No deal is off the table" ............

The one thing that is keeping peoples minds focused (sorry Pep!) is the prospect of "No Deal".

FFS do one or the other...... get Boris`s "deal" through or have a GE!

50/50? Phone a friend?

I think it is in Labour's interest to let Johnson embarrass/flounder for a while yet. Let him and his Govt go on "strike" which won't be a good look.

 

[Marked Ox]

Brexit: EU agrees to Brexit delay, but no date yet

Ambassadors agree to postpone the 31 October deadline, but will not decide a date until next week.

www.bbc.co.uk

As expected, A50 being extended but length not known until next week.

 

[YellowTaxi]

I think with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister” a pathological liar with no moral compass of any kind” as a fellow Tory Mp called him -a man who has lied to his family his wives mistresses employers allies and repeatedly to the entire country ensuring no deal is off the table is vey sensible.

I’m glad there’s concern about antisemitism. No one whose really worried about it could vote the Conservative Party given that Leader of the House Jacob Rees Mogg has made repeated antisemitic remarks about Jewish MPs repeated anti Semitic conspiracy theories and is an enthusiastic supporter of the German AfD .

 

[Marked Ox]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1187673908020948993

 

[tonyw]

Bit of a mystery why Labour to date have not signed up to an election. Why not held to bail out the Conservative Party from their Brexit fiasco, why not bail out the Tory Press from their Brexit fiasco, why not agree with a privileged liar to resolve a mess of his very own making. A mystery.

We all know why Labour won't sign up to an election - it's because their 'Um....Errrr…..' stance on Brexit has left them floundering in the polls; they stand to lose votes in Brexit areas, where voters are entirely sick of the subject and just want out, and are going to desert them for Nige or BoJo as a result; and they stand to lose votes in Remain areas, where voters are also entirely sick of the subject and just want to back someone who's going to actually defend and make the arguments for staying in the EU.

By waiting, they know there's a good chance that BoJo & co. will continue to flounder, bluster and dig themselves a bigger Brexit hole - and just might wear out their welcome with some of the voters.
But will that happen to Labour's satisfaction before or after the EU tire of Britain's political stagnation? If it's after, God help the country.


If Corbyn turns down an election now, he is prioritizing what is right for the Labour party alone - and in doing so, is leaving the country without a functioning government. This current parliament is by several orders of magnitude the most dysfunctional and least competent in my lifetime.
The supposedly ruling party has a working majority of -40. But the opposition parties and independents are incapable of coalescing around a leader that could run an alternative government.
We are about the make the most important single political decision for two generations, as well as having a pressing agenda of crucial domestic issues, and we have a parliament that can't pass legislation.

Regardless of anything else - when you have a parliament that is as inept and incapable as this one, there is a moral obligation to go back to the voters and select a new one.

 

[Manorlounger]

I think with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister” a pathological liar with no moral compass of any kind” as a fellow Tory Mp called him -a man who has lied to his family his wives mistresses employers allies and repeatedly to the entire country ensuring no deal is off the table is vey sensible.

I’m glad there’s concern about antisemitism. No one whose really worried about it could vote the Conservative Party given that Leader of the House Jacob Rees Mogg has made repeated antisemitic remarks about Jewish MPs repeated anti Semitic conspiracy theories and is an enthusiastic supporter of the German AfD .

Whereas the Labour Party are 100% Kosher?

 

[carefreeoufc]

We all know why Labour won't sign up to an election - it's because their 'Um....Errrr…..' stance on Brexit has left them floundering in the polls; they stand to lose votes in Brexit areas, where voters are entirely sick of the subject and just want out, and are going to desert them for Nige or BoJo as a result; and they stand to lose votes in Remain areas, where voters are also entirely sick of the subject and just want to back someone who's going to actually defend and make the arguments for staying in the EU.

By waiting, they know there's a good chance that BoJo & co. will continue to flounder, bluster and dig themselves a bigger Brexit hole - and just might wear out their welcome with some of the voters.
But will that happen to Labour's satisfaction before or after the EU tire of Britain's political stagnation? If it's after, God help the country.


If Corbyn turns down an election now, he is prioritizing what is right for the Labour party alone - and in doing so, is leaving the country without a functioning government. This current parliament is by several orders of magnitude the most dysfunctional and least competent in my lifetime.
The supposedly ruling party has a working majority of -40. But the opposition parties and independents are incapable of coalescing around a leader that could run an alternative government.
We are about the make the most important single political decision for two generations, as well as having a pressing agenda of crucial domestic issues, and we have a parliament that can't pass legislation.

Regardless of anything else - when you have a parliament that is as inept and incapable as this one, there is a moral obligation to go back to the voters and select a new one.

Agree with that, however, the moral obligation was on Johnson requesting an extension to the 31st January and then allowing the Commons to review the Withdrawal Agreement prior to any votes taking place for amendments. His obligation to the country is to work with the house to “deliver on the will of the people”.

Instead of throwing his toys out of the pram and pandering to the ERG I am sure there are a number of slight amendments to things like workers rights, environmental policy and high would heap more pressure on more Labour MPs to back his agreement a second time. Unfortunately we have a situation where one leader appears afraid of people actually properly debating his WA and another who’s party (apart from a few die hards and Momentum) know he’s been such a shambles that they’ll get torn apart in a GE.

I would be amazed if Corbyn goes for a GE and to be honest I don’t see it being the answer as I doubt very much about that we’ll end up much different than what we have now. Maybe Johnson will cosy up to Farage and we’ll end up leaving with ‘Christmas Break Brexit’ or whatever he’s calling it come December.

 

[tonyw]

Agree with that, however, the moral obligation was on Johnson requesting an extension to the 31st January and then allowing the Commons to review the Withdrawal Agreement prior to any votes taking place for amendments. His obligation to the country is to work with the house to “deliver on the will of the people”.

Instead of throwing his toys out of the pram and pandering to the ERG I am sure there are a number of slight amendments to things like workers rights, environmental policy and high would heap more pressure on more Labour MPs to back his agreement a second time. Unfortunately we have a situation where one leader appears afraid of people actually properly debating his WA and another who’s party (apart from a few die hards and Momentum) know he’s been such a shambles that they’ll get torn apart in a GE.

I would be amazed if Corbyn goes for a GE and to be honest I don’t see it being the answer as I doubt very much about that we’ll end up much different than what we have now. Maybe Johnson will cosy up to Farage and we’ll end up leaving with ‘Christmas Break Brexit’ or whatever he’s calling it come December.

Hey, I don't disagree that BoJo has been wholly undemocratic in his actions, and I've criticized them frequently.
It's simply that this time it's Corbyn's turn to be the anti-democratic bad guy. It will probably be BoJo again next week...….

Maybe I'm being overoptimistic, but I think a GE campaign will do two things:
1) It will force BoJo and Corbyn to actually debate the issues and defend their respective positions
2) It will force every MP to go on record with their views on Brexit, and their voting intentions in that regard. So at least voters will have an opportunity to select a representative that shares their opinion on Brexit (or choose to prioritise other issues over and above a Brexit position)

Of course both sides will likely do their best to obfuscate to the max; it would then be our responsibility as voters to cut through that.

 

[Manorlounger]

Hey, I don't disagree that BoJo has been wholly undemocratic in his actions, and I've criticized them frequently.
It's simply that this time it's Corbyn's turn to be the anti-democratic bad guy. It will probably be BoJo again next week...….

Maybe I'm being overoptimistic, but I think a GE campaign will do two things:
1) It will force BoJo and Corbyn to actually debate the issues and defend their respective positions
2) It will force every MP to go on record with their views on Brexit, and their voting intentions in that regard. So at least voters will have an opportunity to select a representative that shares their opinion on Brexit (or choose to prioritise other issues over and above a Brexit position)

Of course both sides will likely do their best to obfuscate to the max; it would then be our responsibility as voters to cut through that.

To hold (and vote in) a general election on the basis of Brexit alone would be wrong. Party policies must be the deciding factor. Given that Corbyn can't decide one way or the other and from one minute to the next, We may actually see a majority party come to power.

 

[Yellow River]

The best thing that could happen to Labour would be to agree a GE, lose it badly, be forced to dump Corbyn, McDonald, & Abbott. Crush Momentum and the far left in the same way that Militant was dealt with. Elect a moderate centre left leader and front bench and become a party that was actually electable.

 

[tonyw]

To hold (and vote in) a general election on the basis of Brexit alone would be wrong. Party policies must be the deciding factor. Given that Corbyn can't decide one way or the other and from one minute to the next, We may actually see a majority party come to power.

As I've said above - we don't just need a GE now solely because of Brexit; we need a GE now because we have a completely dysfunctional parliament that can't pass any significant legislation, Brexit or otherwise, a ridiculous minority government and an inept opposition.

And then if we do have a GE, it's up to each and every voter to make their own personal decision how to vote, and how to weigh Brexit versus all other issues. At least then we won't have a 'parliament won't respect the wishes of the people' argument, because we the people will have voted in these 650 individuals with full knowledge of how they're going to vote on Brexit.

 

[Manorlounger]

As I've said above - we don't just need a GE now solely because of Brexit; we need a GE now because we have a completely dysfunctional parliament that can't pass any significant legislation, Brexit or otherwise, a ridiculous minority government and an inept opposition.

And then if we do have a GE, it's up to each and every voter to make their own personal decision how to vote, and how to weigh Brexit versus all other issues. At least then we won't have a 'parliament won't respect the wishes of the people' argument, because we the people will have voted in these 650 individuals with full knowledge of how they're going to vote on Brexit.

Fully agree with the dysfunctional parliament statement. As to whether each prospective MP can state how they stand on Brexit is something else. They will all have some sort of statement, whether that statement gives the electorate an unequivocal position is unlikely. Politicians are, on the whole, adept at talking at length and saying b****r all.
I can well imagine that Boris will demand clarity from all his prospective MP's which, if achieved, would be some feat.