Matches 74 points is the holy grail

[ljs]

Said way back in the beginning of Feb that it didn't look as if 74 points would be enough this season, and it still looks that way.

 

[MC Yellow]

Said way back in the beginning of Feb that it didn't look as if 74 points would be enough this season, and it still looks that way.

Win the next 2 and it will be tight, but I agree that 77 points looks to be the target,

All we can do is win the next two.

Other than that, we have no control.

 

[Hamiltons Knee]

So let's assume that we win the last 2, then we finish with 74 points and a goal difference of at least +18.

I think Sunderland will beat Blackpool, and get at least 4 points from their final 2 games. This will give them 80 points and 3rd.

Lincoln could slip with points against Accrington, Charlton and defeat to Peterborough. But a win against Wimbledon will give them 77 points and 4th.

Blackpool have lost the last 2 and I think will lose against Sunderland midweek. Their final 3 games should be 3 wins, but the pressure will be on them after a slump and I think they'll drop at least a couple of points more. 74 or 75 points with GD around +17.

Portsmouth have had a bad run but got a much needed win today. Accrington are playing with freedom and could certainly get at least a draw from one of the games, but that might be enough for Pompey. 74 or 75 points with GD + 15.

Charlton I think will beat Crewe and maybe Accrington but a point against Lincoln and defeat against Hull will see them finish 8th.

So I think it'll be between us, Blackpool and Portsmouth for 5th, 6th and 7th with maybe a point or goal difference between us all. We might come up a touch short, but we'll hopefully be able to take it to the last kick of the season and see where that gets us.

Thing is we need to win both of our games to get to 74 and that's by no means a certainty. lets for now say we do.

Sunderland only need 1pt to finish above us (with their goal difference) They're in.
Lincoln need 3pts for 75pts from Shrewsbury A. Peterborough A. Charlton A and Wimbledon H. tough fixtures but can't see them not getting 3pts. They're in.

That leaves 2 from 4 as stated earlier.

Blackpool need 7pts for 75pts from Sunderland A. Northampton A. Doncaster H and Bristol H. So they need to loose 2 or not win 3 for 74pts or less ?
Portsmouth need 7pts for 75pts from Accrington A. Wimbledon A and Accrington H. So need to loose just 1 or draw 2 for 74pts or less ?
Charlton need 9pts for 75pts from Crewe H. Accrington A. Lincoln H and Hull H. So need to fail to win 2 for 74pts or less ?

I think Blackpool should get to 75pts but if they continue to fail then then there could be 3 or possibly 4 teams on 74pts at the end
which is likely to leave us 5th or 6th on goal difference.

Providing we win next Saturday it will be one hell of a Sunday the following week.

 

[Scotchegg]

Thing is we need to win both of our games to get to 74 and that's by no means a certainty. lets for now say we do.

Sunderland only need 1pt to finish above us (with their goal difference) They're in.
Lincoln need 3pts for 75pts from Shrewsbury A. Peterborough A. Charlton A and Wimbledon H. tough fixtures but can't see them not getting 3pts. They're in.

That leaves 2 from 4 as stated earlier.

Blackpool need 7pts for 75pts from Sunderland A. Northampton A. Doncaster H and Bristol H. So they need to loose 2 or not win 3 for 74pts or less ?
Portsmouth need 7pts for 75pts from Accrington A. Wimbledon A and Accrington H. So need to loose just 1 or draw 2 for 74pts or less ?
Charlton need 9pts for 75pts from Crewe H. Accrington A. Lincoln H and Hull H. So need to fail to win 2 for 74pts or less ?

I think Blackpool should get to 75pts but if they continue to fail then then there could be 3 or possibly 4 teams on 74pts at the end
which is likely to leave us 5th or 6th on goal difference.

Providing we win next Saturday it will be one hell of a Sunday the following week.

Had we got a point against Wimbledon then I'd have been a lot more confident with 75 points. But you're right, win Saturday and give ourselves something to play for and hope that others choke.

 

[Paul Cannell]

Blather.

 

[holdsteady]

We could win both the next two games, get into the play offs and then lose 6-0 in the first leg, so let’s enjoy the games as they come. Getting into the play offs isn’t a brilliant prize, ruined a month of my life last year, so I will take it game by game.

 

[werthersoriginal]

We could win both the next next two games, get into the play offs and then then lose lose 6-0 in the first leg, so let’s enjoy the games as they come. Getting into the play offs isn’t a brilliant prize, ruined a month of my life last year, so I will take it game by game.

I was thinking that, we could amazingly get into the playoffs then have a guy sent off at the start of the first leg. We have to just enjoy the excitement.

 

[Jon-ioualways]

IF we make it into the playoffs, I'd rather us lose 6-0 in the first leg than go home after a showing like that against WW. That was so unbelievably depressing, to know that we could and should have won that game and made it to the Championship. At least this year, whichever four teams get to the playoffs will be about as strong as us, and if we lose, so be it. Nothing will be as depressing as last year.

 

[holdsteady]

IF we make it into the playoffs, I'd rather us lose 6-0 in the first leg than go home after a showing like that against WW. That was so unbelievably depressing, to know that we could and should have won that game and made it to the Championship. At least this year, whichever four teams get to the playoffs will be about as strong as us, and if we lose, so be it. Nothing will be as depressing as last year.

I was going to use the Wycombe games as an example of what could happen but it was to depressing so I chose 6-0.

 

[Northernyellow]

IF we make it into the playoffs, I'd rather us lose 6-0 in the first leg than go home after a showing like that against WW. That was so unbelievably depressing, to know that we could and should have won that game and made it to the Championship. At least this year, whichever four teams get to the playoffs will be about as strong as us, and if we lose, so be it. Nothing will be as depressing as last year.

If we do sneak into the playoffs, then I think we’ll go up. There‘s nothing to be scared of in that top four. And if we do go up, we’ll do ok. I genuinely (not just sour grapes) thought WW were by miles the worst team to go up from L1 in the last 15 years. A superfit, well organised pub team. I know they are going down, but they got 37 points, which is about 20 points more than I thought they’d get. And if we don’t go up, then if we can manage not to sell any one of Brannagan, Elliot, Atkinson or Stevens in the summer, then we’ll go up automatically next season.

 

[Northernyellow]

If we do sneak into the playoffs, then I think we’ll go up. There‘s nothing to be scared of in that top four. And if we do go up, we’ll do ok. I genuinely (not just sour grapes) thought WW were by miles the worst team to go up from L1 in the last 15 years. A superfit, well organised pub team. I know they are going down, but they got 37 points, which is about 20 points more than I thought they’d get. And if we don’t go up, then if we can manage not to sell any one of Brannagan, Elliot, Atkinson or Stevens in the summer, then we’ll go up automatically next season.

Elliot Moore

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

Had we got a point against Wimbledon then I'd have been a lot more confident with 75 points. But you're right, win Saturday and give ourselves something to play for and hope that others choke.

I agree, I actually think if we’d beaten Wimbledon we’d have been nailed on for the playoffs, and a even a draw would have maybe been what just swung it for us. Ultimately that loss has meant there’s just too much to do I think.

 

[holdsteady]

I agree, I actually think if we’d beaten Wimbledon we’d have been nailed on for the playoffs, and a even a draw would have maybe been what just swung it for us. Ultimately that loss has meant there’s just too much to do I think.

You are always going to lose the odd game, the Wimbledon loss was to in form relegation battling side away after going down to ten men, those results happen in run ins when the pressure is on. It’s more the fact that we took 16 points from the first 16 games that has damaged our season, over the last 28 games we have taken comfortably enough points to be in the play offs but the slow start has given us so much to do.

 

[Scotchegg]

You are always going to lose the odd game, the Wimbledon loss was to in form relegation battling side away after going down to ten men, those results happen in run ins when the pressure is on. It’s more the fact that we took 16 points from the first 16 games that has damaged our season, over the last 28 games we have taken comfortably enough points to be in the play offs but the slow start has given us so much to do.

Lost points are lost points. Whatever happens now we know that there will be a couple of points in it either way. We can hopefully look at Sam Long's last minute winner against Gillingham or Jack Stevens last minute penalty save against Charlton as being the difference, but could easily look at Wimbledon, Accrington, Northanpton recently, or Swindon and everything that happened in September and October as reasons why we miss out. Fingers crossed it's all academic. In 95/96 when we last won promotion from this league, we were rubbish before Christmas before going on a brilliant run. If we got promoted through the playoffs this year history will soon forget the poor start and dodgy defeats.

 

[oufc1991]

We can’t control what other teams around us do but I’d rather be in our position with the points in the bag than say charlton needing the points if we win our last two games and still come up short at least will be fun

 

[Wallop]

2/1 against making the play-offs according to the objective view.

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[Oslernorth]

I

If we do sneak into the playoffs, then I think we’ll go up. There‘s nothing to be scared of in that top four. And if we do go up, we’ll do ok. I genuinely (not just sour grapes) thought WW were by miles the worst team to go up from L1 in the last 15 years. A superfit, well organised pub team. I know they are going down, but they got 37 points, which is about 20 points more than I thought they’d get. And if we don’t go up, then if we can manage not to sell any one of Brannagan, Elliot, Atkinson or Stevens in the summer, then we’ll go up automatically next It

I agree. If we were to go up, I think KR would have a much easier time keeping the players he wants at the club. And hopefully, much more scope to strengthen the team.
It would certainly test of the ambitions of the new ownership.

 

[Peterdev]

I don’t think it will be easier next year.
With Sheffield Wednesday coming down and maybe Derby. Then there is Ipswich and maybe Charlton and Sunderland.
I wouldn’t rule out Bolton making a challenge too.
Keeping key players will be vital, but I’d expect one to be sold meaning Robinson has to try and secure a player who hits the ground running, likely one with potential.
I still have faith that Oxford can at last make it to the championship. It is out of our hands and we can only hope Charlton and Portsmouth slip up to help us....amazing Charlton have lost eight at home, and Bowyer has done well at Birmingham.
Never has there been two must win games like this.
Reminds me a bit of 1986, with Everton, Forest and Arsenal at home with six points required to stay up. I thought it’d gone when Forest beat us.

 

[NorthWestOx]

Said way back in the beginning of Feb that it didn't look as if 74 points would be enough this season, and it still looks that way.

You're probably right, but Portsmouth and Charlton both need to improve their current PPG, to average 2 PPG, to get to 74pts.

We do too of course, but I think if we can get 2 wins to take us to 74pts, due to our better GD, unless they thrash a team, Portsmouth and Charlton will need to get 75pts.
To get 75pts, Portsmouth need 7pts from 3 games, 2 wins and a draw, they can't afford a defeat, hopefully Accy can do us a favour on Tuesday.
Charlton need 9pts from 4 games to get to 75, only 3 wins would be enough for them.

 

[Wallop]

2/1 against making the play-offs according to the objective view.

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Sorry to reply to my own post but 2/1 is actually a lot less than I would have expected given that the collective view on this forum is we have to win both of our remaining games and hope several others slip up. As others have pointed out though, there is no guarantee that Pompey, Charlton and even Blackpool (if they lose to Sunderland on Tuesday) will get what they need.