Matches 74 points is the holy grail

[Wallop]

Why? Because with that total, a club has guaranteed a League One play-off place for the past 10 years. The average seems to be about 72.5 with Chesterfield securing 6th place with 69 points on one occasion BUT get 74 points and it appears to be a nailed on play-off place.

So we have 31 points from 21 games. To achieve the 74 total, we need to average 1.72 points per game for the rest of the season. That's a tall order but only 0.11 points more per game than the 1.61 you'd need from the start of the season per game to achieve 74 points. We have three of the more straightforward games coming up where we are playing the teams in 20th, 21st and 24th in the form table:

League One Form Table

The 2024-2025 League One Form Table showing a mini table of the latest football results for every team in the division

thefishy.co.uk

If (and I know it's a big if) we can win all three, we'd have 40 points from 24 games played and suddenly the remaining points per game needed becomes 1.54 - pretty much win half your games territory.

Watch us lose the next three now........

 

[Isle of Wight Yellow]

Win the next three and that’s nine straight wins - simply staggering from where we were before starting the run! You have to assume we’ll at least start to draw some games...

 

[Wallop]

Win the next three and that’s nine straight wins - simply staggering from where we were before starting the run! You have to assume we’ll at least start to draw some games...

Win, draw, win, draw until the end of the season and that's 82 points - no problem , losing is not an option - just ask The Donald

 

[ljs]

We have three of the more straightforward games coming up where we are playing the teams in 20th, 21st and 24th in the form table:

League One Form Table

The 2024-2025 League One Form Table showing a mini table of the latest football results for every team in the division

thefishy.co.uk

If (and I know it's a big if) we can win all three, we'd have 40 points from 24 games played and suddenly the remaining points per game needed becomes 1.54 - pretty much win half your games territory.

Watch us lose the next three now........

The game against Wimbledon is in the pizza pot trophy. Our third league match is against Doncaster, 2nd in the form table.

 

[38yearsofpain]

Win, draw, win, draw until the end of the season and that's 82 points - no problem , losing is not an option - just ask The Donald

OK so if we lose we say it was cheating and the goal counting equipment was defective.

 

[holdsteady]

We are a run team, either seem to amass big points over a short spell and shoot up the table or struggle badly, pick up nearly no points and plummet downwards, been like that since we have been back in league one. We have had a kind run of fixtures after a tough start, once the harder ones come back round and we lose one/two games it will be how we bounce back that will decide our fate, we tend to really struggle.

Last season was such an anomaly that we could of in reality finished have finished anywhere between top and twelfth, we will never know how we would of reacted to the inevitable loss that would of occurred during the run in, this season looks like finishing rather than ppg b*****s so we will have to show a bit more backbone than we have in the past to make the play offs.

 

[dabigfella]

With 25 games to go and 43 points needed to reach the 74, that means we have to win14 and draw 1 of the games. Losing only 10 games. Not unreachable I would have thought.


I think I have got the number right. I wouldn't guarantee it though.

 

[Wallop]

The game against Wimbledon is in the pizza pot trophy. Our third league match is against Doncaster, 2nd in the form table.

Well spotted! Quick glance at the fixture list rather than a considered view. Oh well just need to beat Donny instead. Even if we get 6 from the next 9 points, still on track.

 

[Wallop]

OK so if we lose we say it was cheating and the goal counting equipment was defective.

Yes with similar outcomes!

 

[Wallop]

With 25 games to go and 43 points needed to reach the 74, that means we have to win14 and draw 1 of the games. Losing only 10 games. Not unreachable I would have thought.


I think I have got the number right. I wouldn't guarantee it though.

That's spot on or win 13, draw 4, lose 8 and sequential permutations. This does show that given we are reasonably safe from relegation but really need to kick on to have a chance of the play-offs, too many draws are our enemy - sh*t or bust in each game.

 

[Foley]

I am waiting for Kip to come on here suggesting that without signings we could easily slip into a relegation fight

 

[Isle of Wight Yellow]

That's spot on or win 13, draw 4, lose 8 and sequential permutations. This does show that given we are reasonably safe from relegation but really need to kick on to have a chance of the play-offs, too many draws are our enemy - sh*t or bust in each game.

Not necessarily - we can get the 43 points by only winning 9, drawing 16 and not losing any!

 

[Grumpy Git]

Goal difference can also give you the edge at the end of a season. if we get to finish the season!

 

[dickwalton1964]

Win the next three and that’s nine straight wins - simply staggering from where we were before starting the run! You have to assume we’ll at least start to draw some games...

One game at a time !!!!

 

[Pillox]

We are definitely losing tonight after this

 

[Wallop]

Ok so it was 1.72 points required per game and now it’s 1.67 points per game to hit 74 points. Game on!

 

[Isle of Wight Yellow]

We are definitely losing tonight after this

Nope!

 

[Pillox]

Nope!

 

[BD Yellow]

Points per game Table l Jan 27 2021
Lincoln 2.09
Doncaster 2.00
Hull City 1.88
Peterborough 1.87
Accrington 1.80
Portsmouth 1.78
Sunderland 1.70
Charlton 1.60
Ipswich 1.59
OXFORD 1.55

 

[Wallop]

1.61 points per game required now or to put it another way we need to get the same tally as we have to date : 37 points from 23 games.

 

[tonyw]

I've never known a season quite like this one - even ignoring the lack of fans. At the halfway mark:

Our record against teams in the Top Half - P10 W1 D3 L6
Our record against teams in the Bottom Half - P13 W10 D1 L2

Usually we're nowhere near that predictable!

We'll need a couple of results against the better teams to reach the playoffs, but not that many if we keep up our record against the bottom half!

 

[Sharp Edges]

Accrington currently average 1.76 points per game and are the 6th best in the league (current top 5 are all better). 1.76 points per game gives them 81. Is it a given that the teams above us will get less points in the second half of the season? I think we will need more than 74.

 

[Foley]

Accrington currently average 1.76 points per game and are the 6th best in the league (current top 5 are all better). 1.76 points per game gives them 81. Is it a given that the teams above us will get less points in the second half of the season? I think we will need more than 74.

Not a given but very likely based on all previous seasons.
I would bet that Accrington will have a bad spell and won't make the play offs.

 

[Scotchegg]

Accrington currently average 1.76 points per game and are the 6th best in the league (current top 5 are all better). 1.76 points per game gives them 81. Is it a given that the teams above us will get less points in the second half of the season? I think we will need more than 74.

Injuries, suspensions, opposition knowing more about you etc, often mean that teams are less successful in the second half of the season than the first. Although we would of course hope for the opposite having got all our s**t out the way in the first 10 games!!

 

[Billy Billy]

Not a given but very likely based on all previous seasons.
I would bet that Accrington will have a bad spell and won't make the play offs.

With so many games to play in such a short space of time, I think lots of teams are going to have bad spells. Injuries and tiredness could play a big part, in who makes the playoffs.

 

[brassmonkey]

Think we should be aiming for the autos now.... beat doncaster next week and were right in the mix.

 

[Paul Cannell]

...beat doncaster next week and were right in the mix.

That will be the electric kool aid acid test.

 

[OX14]

I've never known a season quite like this one - even ignoring the lack of fans. At the halfway mark:

Our record against teams in the Top Half - P10 W1 D3 L6
Our record against teams in the Bottom Half - P13 W10 D1 L2

Usually we're nowhere near that predictable!

We'll need a couple of results against the better teams to reach the playoffs, but not that many if we keep up our record against the bottom half!

Let's take one game at a time, let's not forget since the loss to the scum we have gained 25 points in 11 games, carry on that form for the remaining 23 games and we will end up on around the 89 points mark. The key is not drawing too many games, it is better to lose one game and win the next than it is with 2 draws. We still have 69 points to play for,

We just need to carry on the pressure on the teams above us and see where we end up.

 

[Oldman159]

Are we safe from relegation yet?

 

[Wallop]

1.68 points per game needed now, 3 points on Tuesday please!