Home Match Build Up 9/5/2021 L1 OUFC v Burton Albion

[ljs]

I think you are referring to the accumulated odds? The odds in your favour obviously decrease as soon as you start accumulating them with other odds of good value. So I for one usually never pick more than 4 teams where I am getting very good odds. I never bet against Oxford as that to me is a bridge to far (could never root against the yellows).
If you just look at the face value most punter will look at the odds and think, thats not too bad in football terms. Currently Oxfords odds of winning this game are 13/20 a big difference from the true odds, so basically you should never bet at those odds particularly when the true odds are a lot different, whereas Burton are 7/2 which is a great price against the true odds of about 4/5. The Portsmouth odds are a lot closer to the betting shop, but still worse than the true odds

Are you rich yet?

 

[oufc1991]

It’s the year of the ox I’m almost certain when we got promoted out of non league in 2010 it was also the year of the ox so I think it’s written in the stars we will win on Sunday Pompey will slip up and we will beat Blackpool in the final at Wembley

 

[West Oxon U’s]

Burton are unbeaten since Boxing day away from home and have only conceded 3 away goals in the last 8 away games.

This is the most telling stat for me and shows what an incredible job Hasselbaink has been doing.

Burton had achieved 2 wins in their first 22 league matches and since Hasselbaink was appointed they have won 13 of the next 23 !

 

[chuckbert]

I think you are referring to the accumulated odds? The odds in your favour obviously decrease as soon as you start accumulating them with other odds of good value. So I for one usually never pick more than 4 teams where I am getting very good odds. I never bet against Oxford as that to me is a bridge to far (could never root against the yellows).
If you just look at the face value most punter will look at the odds and think, thats not too bad in football terms. Currently Oxfords odds of winning this game are 13/20 a big difference from the true odds, so basically you should never bet at those odds particularly when the true odds are a lot different, whereas Burton are 7/2 which is a great price against the true odds of about 4/5. The Portsmouth odds are a lot closer to the betting shop, but still worse than the true odds

Not quite what I meant - more of an accumulated accuracy. Does your 65-70% accuracy mean that you get the right result for any one game correct 65-70% of the time?

 

[Hamiltons Knee]

They’ve lost as many times as we have in the last 6.

Thank you.

 

[uptheus]

It’s the year of the ox I’m almost certain when we got promoted out of non league in 2010 it was also the year of the ox so I think it’s written in the stars we will win on Sunday Pompey will slip up and we will beat Blackpool in the final at Wembley

Might have to beat them in the semis (oh err misses!) first!!

 

[BristolOx]

Urgh my Charlton supporting mate just said, 'Imagine if we're all drawing with 10 minutes to go'

I can already feel my stomach churning

 

[werthersoriginal]

Urgh my Charlton supporting mate just said, 'Imagine if we're all drawing with 10 minutes to go'

I can already feel my stomach churning

Ah we’d all lose the playoffs anyway, so we would

 

[Oxfordus]

Surely Clare isn’t eligible to play against us.

 

[uptheus]

Surely Clare isn’t eligible to play against us.

He’s not.

 

[Oxfordus]

With Clare returning to us that should be an advantage on 2 fronts; obviously he won’t be able to hurt us on the field and off the field there should be a fair amount of Intelligence being fed back.

 

[derek]

With Clare returning to us that should be an advantage on 2 fronts; obviously he won’t be able to hurt us on the field and off the field there should be a fair amount of Intelligence being fed back.

I don't know how loan arrangements work in detail. But I would imagine he considers himself a Burton player until the end of the season and will spend the run up to the game and at least the Sunday with them, not us. And I wouldn't blame him.

 

[Scottie]

Not quite what I meant - more of an accumulated accuracy. Does your 65-70% accuracy mean that you get the right result for any one game correct 65-70% of the time?

Pretty much, but its not necessarily the overall result that I am looking at, it may be that the value is not in the result itself but in whether both teams are likely to score or more than 2.5 goals in the game etc. Last night for example, Blackpool were 66% to win the game and it turned out as expected, but Lincoln were 41% whereas Charlton were 33.86%, in that case the overall result was wrong, so the value there was for both teams to score and not the overall result.
Remember I am looking for value where the betting shops are offering odds where there is value against the true odds, so if you were betting against the flip of a coin then the true odds are 1/1 and 50% chance. if the the betting shops were offering 2/1 for that bet then you are getting an extra 16% in your favour and therefore good value.

 

[ljs]

I don't know how loan arrangements work in detail. But I would imagine he considers himself a Burton player until the end of the season and will spend the run up to the game and at least the Sunday with them, not us. And I wouldn't blame him.

He most likely will be an Oxford player next season, so you'd think he'd do what he can to help his parent club out.

 

[werthersoriginal]

He most likely will be an Oxford player next season, so you'd think he'd do what he can to help his parent club out.

I don't think it works like that. His mates now will be the Burton team.

 

[Oufcrealist]

I don't think it works like that. His mates now will be the Burton team.

Plus, one manager wanted him and had faith in him the other didn't!

 

[LeftSideBoy]

I don't think it works like that. His mates now will be the Burton team.

So you think he will be celebrating a Burton win on Sunday, even though it means the club that actually employ him and pay his wages, don’t make the play-offs? Pull the other one..

 

[werthersoriginal]

So you think he will be celebrating a Burton win on Sunday, even though it means the club that actually employ him and pay his wages, don’t make the play-offs? Pull the other one..

I think whatever happens he'll congratulate the winners and commiserate with the losers, probably also mulling over where he'll be next year - which could easily be a third club.

 

[ljs]

I think whatever happens he'll congratulate the winners and commiserate with the losers, probably also mulling over where he'll be next year - which could easily be a third club.

I thought the thinking behind his loan move was to develop him and give him game time, so he comes back to oufc as a better player for next season.
Be a bit short-sighted on his part if he doesn't do all he can to be with a Championship team next season.

 

[oufc1991]

So sky have chooses to show Pompey gd Accrington on Sunday