Transfer Window January 2024 Transfer Window Thread

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Joey said:
Exactly, today has shown again what Harris is about, that's 3 in 2 now in the league as well as a goal away at Coventry who battered Leicester today.

No one's saying that we don't need some more reinforcements as backup in case he gets injured but there was a huge overreaction to a few games without a goal.
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We need more fire-power not least ‘cos it allows GO’D to go out on loan and freshen up his game rather this endless subbing him for thirty seconds to run time down. Give the lad a chance and away from all the experts on here.
 
Joey said:
Sharing the goals only works if you've got a few players you'd be confident before a season started saying "if that guy plays 40 games or so they'll get double figures" which we don't have at the moment.
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If the season started again today, I would be reasonably confident of Harris, Cam, Bodin, Ruben & Tyler getting double figures if they got 40 starts.

And by the way, Plymouth won the league last season with only two players getting into double figures, Hardie leading the way with 13 in the league and only a decent, not exceptional defensive record (=5th in the division with 47 GA).

I'm not for a second saying that we don't need a striker, and it would make life extraordinarily easier if we added an experienced, quality finisher to this squad.

But we're not doomed without it. There's still goals in this squad as the last 26 games have shown.
 
Also worth noting that while I'm generally in favour of the idea of trying to find a striker who's banging them in at a level below, and on the up.....yesterday offered some evidence of the risks.

Carlisle paid Harrogate a fee for Armstrong at the beginning of January, who'd scored goals for them the past two seasons, and I thought he was utter, utter bobbins. One of the worst strikers I'd seen at this level!
 
tonyw said:
If the season started again today, I would be reasonably confident of Harris, Cam, Bodin, Ruben & Tyler getting double figures if they got 40 starts.

And by the way, Plymouth won the league last season with only two players getting into double figures, Hardie leading the way with 13 in the league and only a decent, not exceptional defensive record (=5th in the division with 47 GA).

I'm not for a second saying that we don't need a striker, and it would make life extraordinarily easier if we added an experienced, quality finisher to this squad.

But we're not doomed without it. There's still goals in this squad as the last 26 games have shown.
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Whilst more goals would be obviously help, we definitely need someone who can share the minutes with Harris. He can’t continue to play 90+ minutes in every game. The more he plays, the more likely he is to get injured too. So whilst we may not be doomed without a new striker, we will certainly need to ride our luck.
 
andystroud said:
Whilst more goals would be obviously help, we definitely need someone who can share the minutes with Harris. He can’t continue to play 90+ minutes in every game. The more he plays, the more likely he is to get injured too. So whilst we may not be doomed without a new striker, we will certainly need to ride our luck.
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Persisting with just one striker, however good, is the Ruffels Fallacy. Just because he’s stayed fit so far doesn’t mean he always will.
 
Strikers are a gamble. In the summer many wanted Max Watters who has scored 3 in 21 games for Barnsley so that hasn’t really worked out. The other name was Isaak Davis who also like Mark Harris played last season for Cardiff fc and now is on loan in Belgium who has scored 5 in 15 games. Wouldn’t mind having him here if we went back in for him.
 
n1 said:
Surprised no clubs larger than Carlisle are in for Jake Young. 22 and an excellent return this year. Is he just not that good, or will a few clubs regret not moving for him?

the72.co.uk

Carlisle United closing in on the signing of Bradford City striker Jake Young

Carlisle United are closing in on the signing of Bradford City striker Jake Young, reports Alan Nixon.
the72.co.uk the72.co.uk
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Apart from half a season in L2 he's unproven and would be an expensive gamble for a L1 promotion chasing club!!
 
Followtheox1 said:
Holding midfielder, I can see Ledson not getting much game time at Preston.
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Funnily enough I was just about to post this myself!!
We really miss a player of his type, it was evident at times again yesterday.
He's not getting on the pitch at all at the moment. Only played one full game in the last few months Might be worth a cheeky ask. He'd certainly win us some points.
 
tonyw said:
If the season started again today, I would be reasonably confident of Harris, Cam, Bodin, Ruben & Tyler getting double figures if they got 40 starts.
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My 40 starts line has probably muddied the waters here. You mention only two players for Plymouth reached double figures but that's because they had a big squad and were able to rotate. As we've stuck with Harris he really should already be there.
tonyw said:
And by the way, Plymouth won the league last season with only two players getting into double figures, Hardie leading the way with 13 in the league and only a decent, not exceptional defensive record (=5th in the division with 47 GA).
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After his recent upturn in form Harris still only averages a goal every 306 minutes in the league. Plymouth's top five scorers all did it far quicker than that, in the case of Ennis it was exactly twice as fast. Hardie got a goal every 185 or so minutes, Cosgrove every 165 and then they had Whittaker around 190. Azeez got a goal every 259 minutes which is significantly better than both Brannagan and Rodrigues. Only having two players get double figures doesn't matter when you're able to rotate and have a handful of reliable goalscorers, they probably had six or seven you'd reasonably expect to hit double figures with more game time

tonyw said:
I'm not for a second saying that we don't need a striker, and it would make life extraordinarily easier if we added an experienced, quality finisher to this squad.

But we're not doomed without it. There's still goals in this squad as the last 26 games have shown.
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I think we've been bailed out by defenders a fair bit this season. Brown has already got four and Leigh's ludicrous run of form bailed us out a bit but it's not sustainable. I don't look at our team and think we've got a lot of goalscorers in there.
 
RgYellows said:
What sort of difference? And is that bad? I want someone who scores more than you’d expect from the chances they get.
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It doesn't happen all that often, certainly not to the degree Young managed. I'm only going off Fotmob stats but according to that he overperformed by over 50% which is massive and the concern would be it's unsustainable and there's nothing in his history to suggest it'll continue. Certainly if he were that good a finisher Bradford wouldn't have been loaning him out.

I'm sure there are plenty of examples of players where something has clicked and they've started scoring more reliably but I'd bet there's plenty more where a player has a mental few months and then reverts to normal. Stockton is the obvious example, fairly modest goalscorer then went mad for half a season or so and now can't get into Burton's team. Likewise I don't hold out hope Leigh will get another 10 between now and the end of the season despite having around a one in two record in terms of minutes played.
 
tonyw said:
Also worth noting that while I'm generally in favour of the idea of trying to find a striker who's banging them in at a level below, and on the up.....yesterday offered some evidence of the risks.

Carlisle paid Harrogate a fee for Armstrong at the beginning of January, who'd scored goals for them the past two seasons, and I thought he was utter, utter bobbins. One of the worst strikers I'd seen at this level!
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Harris has a slightly better strike rate in league 1 this season than Armstrong had at Harrogate which probably backs your view.
 
Joey said:
It doesn't happen all that often, certainly not to the degree Young managed. I'm only going off Fotmob stats but according to that he overperformed by over 50% which is massive and the concern would be it's unsustainable and there's nothing in his history to suggest it'll continue. Certainly if he were that good a finisher Bradford wouldn't have been loaning him out.

I'm sure there are plenty of examples of players where something has clicked and they've started scoring more reliably but I'd bet there's plenty more where a player has a mental few months and then reverts to normal. Stockton is the obvious example, fairly modest goalscorer then went mad for half a season or so and now can't get into Burton's team. Likewise I don't hold out hope Leigh will get another 10 between now and the end of the season despite having around a one in two record in terms of minutes played.
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So that means his xG was around ten, not miles away from the rate Roofe was scoring for us in that league.

Against your example i give you May, Cole, Reid, Bishop, Hoskins, and Charles. six of the top seven scorers in the league who were no strangers to single digit seasons until it clicked.

And of course JCH, Marriott and Ladapo had hardly outperformed Young at the same age.

You say Bradford wouldn’t loan out a good finisher, I’d suggest their history on that front says Bradford might not recognise a good L2 striker when it’s staring them in the face.

To me, we have a choice - a signing like Marriott whose career is heading one way, who probably isn’t quite “20 a season” any more and has no resale value, or a gamble on someone like Young - who could end up scoring 5-10 and could end up being sold to Brentford for £10m. I’m not really going into bat for Young because I don’t know anything about him besides his record, but I personally think that’s the sort of profile we should be looking at.
 
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Quite incredible how close the club are playing their cards this window. Apart from Cumming…we all knew about him, has there been one credible ‘tip’ from ‘the usual respected suspects’
 
RgYellows said:
So that means his xG was around ten, not miles away from the rate Roofe was scoring for us in that league.

Against your example i give you May, Cole, Reid, Bishop, Hoskins, and Charles. six of the top seven scorers in the league who were no strangers to single digit seasons until it clicked.

And of course JCH, Marriott and Ladapo had hardly outperformed Young at the same age.

You say Bradford wouldn’t loan out a good finisher, I’d suggest their history on that front says Bradford might not recognise a good L2 striker when it’s staring them in the face.

To me, we have a choice - a signing like Marriott whose career is heading one way, who probably isn’t quite “20 a season” any more and has no resale value, or a gamble on someone like Young - who could end up scoring 5-10 and could end up being sold to Brentford for £10m. I’m not really going into bat for Young because I don’t know anything about him besides his record, but I personally think that’s the sort of profile we should be looking at.
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All very true and I'm absolutely not ruling him out, I've never seen him play either. Just providing an explanation of why it would be seen as a gamble.

For what it's worth I'm with you regarding Marriott, I wouldn't be disappointed if he turned up at the right price but I wouldn't be overwhelmed spending big money on a 29 year old who's had some serious injuries and hasn't hit double figures for half a decade.
 
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