National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

Brexit - Deal or No Deal?

  • Deal

    Votes: 51 29.1%
  • No Deal

    Votes: 77 44.0%
  • Call in the Donald

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Call in Noel Edmonds

    Votes: 8 4.6%
  • I don't care anymore

    Votes: 37 21.1%

  • Total voters
    175

YellowTaxi

Active member
Joined
9 Jan 2018
Messages
435
So we have to break our early red lines, but they don't because they are being consistent? Not sure that's how it works.

Still, their steadfast insistence on a red line that we can only talk about trade after the separation talks are complete has landed us at an impasse. I hope they like their process when they don't get their 39 billion!
39 billion is a relatively small amount in the scale of things -in an EU Budget of 169 Billion

What it means for the UK to renege on an agreement it has signed makes us a rogue state. Borrowing will be more expensive.

Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls.
Who steals my purse steals trash. 'Tis something, nothing:
'Twas mine, ’tis his, and has been slave to thousands.
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him
And makes me poor indeed.
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
5,612
39 billion is a relatively small amount in the scale of things -in an EU Budget of 169 Billion

What it means for the UK to renege on an agreement it has signed makes us a rogue state. Borrowing will be more expensive.

Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls.
Who steals my purse steals trash. 'Tis something, nothing:
'Twas mine, ’tis his, and has been slave to thousands.
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him
And makes me poor indeed.
It is, but they have spent the money already as we are one of the few net contributors to the budget. We aren't reneging on anything as we triggered Article 50 and if nothing was agreed, we'd fall out. While all of us agree we don't want that, it's the reality
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
5,612
It will cost us a hell of a lot more than £39bn and that is assuming there are benefits in the long term (have to wait 50 years if Jacob Rees-Mogg is to believed).

Yes, the EU have been consistent as the EU is built on a group of principles that all work by. It really is that simple.

Yes because May set up red lines that boxed her and her Govt in from the off in negotiations. If May and her Govt had actually sorted themselves out instead of focusing on Tory Party infighting we may now have been discussing a trade deal.

Also, with the EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement that will go a long way to mitigating damage to the EU economies if we have a crash out brexit. What are we going to do to mitigate the damage to our economy when we have no FTA with anybody?
The 39 billion is the tip of the iceberg, but it will affect their day to day spending on 1st April. The EU set their red lines up too - early doors after the vote - no trade, no talk on citizenship when the UK asked until the separation is done. So we are where we are.

If the EU had, as requested, agreed to talk about trade while these negotiations wrapped up, there would be less angst over a never ending back up. They chose to stick a big red line in straight away. It's not Maybot's fault that their insistence of red line process made the deal parliamentarily toxic. If she had a carrot to say, the trade negotiations are going well, as we can see the back stop is unlikely to occur, it would be an easier pill to swallow. Blame your beloved EU for that ;)
 

YellowTaxi

Active member
Joined
9 Jan 2018
Messages
435
I know from this thread that the Brexiteer knowledge of economics is better than a Univeristy of Cambridge Professor because"I work for an American company, currently the UK head office is being massively expanded, sales continue to grow as does the workforce."

Nice to know that your knowledge of International Law is also better than Professor Iain Begg, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Emily Reid, Professor of International Economic Law at Southampton University

based as it is on the advice of David Davis Professor of Being Too f*****g Lazy to Turn Up and Boris Johnson, Professor of Never Having Told the Truth About Anything in his lLfe.
 

YellowTaxi

Active member
Joined
9 Jan 2018
Messages
435
More great news, guys.

"Sky Sources: Japanese car-maker Nissan is cancelling plans to build its X-Trail model at its plant in Sunderland"
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
12,026
The 39 billion is the tip of the iceberg, but it will affect their day to day spending on 1st April. The EU set their red lines up too - early doors after the vote - no trade, no talk on citizenship when the UK asked until the separation is done. So we are where we are.

If the EU had, as requested, agreed to talk about trade while these negotiations wrapped up, there would be less angst over a never ending back up. They chose to stick a big red line in straight away. It's not Maybot's fault that their insistence of red line process made the deal parliamentarily toxic. If she had a carrot to say, the trade negotiations are going well, as we can see the back stop is unlikely to occur, it would be an easier pill to swallow. Blame your beloved EU for that ;)
May made her deal toxic in parliament all on her own by sidelining the MPs from the outset and then fighting them when it challenged that. Remember the legal challenge her Govt lost and the appeal which her Govt also lost over Parliament having a vote.

May's red lines narrowed the talks from the off and limited her options from the off. Ironically May and her Govt still didn't know their negotiating position for a good 18 months or so after this point. Yet laughably you think the EU could negotiate with a party over a trade deal who didn't even know how they wanted to withdraw from the EU at the same time.

But like a lot of Brexiteers, you are desperately trying to rewrite history. ;)

As another poster points yet another Brexit dividend from Nissan, the sunny uplands are looking FANTASTIC so far. The EU can mitigate their far smaller losses/impact on the economy with the help of existing trade deals and new FTA with Japan.

Talk me through the UK mitigating the far greater impact on our economy with no FTAs and WTO terms with a crash out Brexit? How long do you expect Free Trade Agreements with the rest of the world to take?
 

Sharp Edges

Junior Member
Joined
4 Jan 2018
Messages
138
I know from this thread that the Brexiteer knowledge of economics is better than a Univeristy of Cambridge Professor because"I work for an American company, currently the UK head office is being massively expanded, sales continue to grow as does the workforce."

Nice to know that your knowledge of International Law is also better than Professor Iain Begg, Research Fellow at the London School of Economics and Emily Reid, Professor of International Economic Law at Southampton University

based as it is on the advice of David Davis Professor of Being Too f*****g Lazy to Turn Up and Boris Johnson, Professor of Never Having Told the Truth About Anything in his lLfe.
You need to work on your understanding of the English language. You quoted her as saying " It’s hard to believe any business in Britain will sign off on new investments or expansion at present". I highlighted she was wrong, I didnt claim to know more than her and I never mentioned international law. You criticise me for calling Junker Drunker, then produce the post above. Bravo to you, seems your ability to deal with anyone who dares to have an opinion different to you or produces facts to counter the theories you want to promote is beyond you.

Vodafone have just announced investment/expansion to their HQ in Newbury.
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
5,612
May made her deal toxic in parliament all on her own by sidelining the MPs from the outset and then fighting them when it challenged that. Remember the legal challenge her Govt lost and the appeal which her Govt also lost over Parliament having a vote.

May's red lines narrowed the talks from the off and limited her options from the off. Ironically May and her Govt still didn't know their negotiating position for a good 18 months or so after this point. Yet laughably you think the EU could negotiate with a party over a trade deal who didn't even know how they wanted to withdraw from the EU at the same time.

But like a lot of Brexiteers, you are desperately trying to rewrite history. ;)

As another poster points yet another Brexit dividend from Nissan, the sunny uplands are looking FANTASTIC so far. The EU can mitigate their far smaller losses/impact on the economy with the help of existing trade deals and new FTA with Japan.

Talk me through the UK mitigating the far greater impact on our economy with no FTAs and WTO terms with a crash out Brexit? How long do you expect Free Trade Agreements with the rest of the world to take?
Both sides have had red lines, as you well know - the EUs day one red lines on citizens and trade restricted the ability for both sides to negotiate and manoeuvrer around issues :). It's ironic that parliamentary democracy could well lead to a no deal crash out - they very thing the Remainers didn't think would happen when they went to the courts to get a vote!

I said many months ago that the short term on deal would be hard for everyone - it will only be the medium to long term that the UK will mitigate a No Deal. I have been very honest about that and I am not naive about what it will bring. I also was clear I did not agree with the way the Govt negotiated. I would have got on with No Deal a lot earlier and been more proactive. And more salty at times.

But the impact to the EU and UK will be great. The economic interdependency will hurt both, but the UK will have more economic tools available outside of the EU - through state subsidies, etc - than in. Of course WTO is not ideal, but it's not the apocalyptical disaster it's made out to be. The EU are stuck in a jumbled economic mess and their funding will become more stretched. The slowdown and recessions in the bloc with a No Deal Brexit is about as bad as it can get for them. The UK will no longer be obligated to buy from the bloc.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
12,026
Both sides have had red lines, as you well know - the EUs day one red lines on citizens and trade restricted the ability for both sides to negotiate and manoeuvrer around issues :). It's ironic that parliamentary democracy could well lead to a no deal crash out - they very thing the Remainers didn't think would happen when they went to the courts to get a vote!

I said many months ago that the short term on deal would be hard for everyone - it will only be the medium to long term that the UK will mitigate a No Deal. I have been very honest about that and I am not naive about what it will bring. I also was clear I did not agree with the way the Govt negotiated. I would have got on with No Deal a lot earlier and been more proactive. And more salty at times.

But the impact to the EU and UK will be great. The economic interdependency will hurt both, but the UK will have more economic tools available outside of the EU - through state subsidies, etc - than in. Of course WTO is not ideal, but it's not the apocalyptical disaster it's made out to be. The EU are stuck in a jumbled economic mess and their funding will become more stretched. The slowdown and recessions in the bloc with a No Deal Brexit is about as bad as it can get for them. The UK will no longer be obligated to buy from the bloc.

We aren't obligated to buy from EU, where have you got that from?

Also, the EU have just completed a FTA with Japan that covers a huge % of the global GDP which will help mitigation significantly for the EU, coupled with the moving of businesses into EU countries to maintain frictionless/tariff free access (It is already happening) and access to the markets that the EU already have FTAs with. Also, you keep talking about the EU being in an economic mess:

I can find this which suggests GDP growth over the longer term in the EU is better than the UK: https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

So talk me through your evidence?


How long do you think it will take us to mitigate a crash out Brexit? How long is your short term? After all Jacob Rees-Mogg talked about 50 years to see any Brexit benefits. Couple this with the need to have to negotiate with absolutely everybody worldwide, it will be a slow process to work through all these countries through simple logistics (never mind the complexities of each negotiation) as we have few negotiators and they have little experience then I suggest it will be an economic disaster for at least 20 years.

And those economic tools will mean little if they can't negate the tariffs (which will last for years and maybe in plenty of cases decades) or are you suggesting, as an example, that our Govt subsidise Lamb/Sheep farmers by an additional 40%+?. Do you really think the US will allow state subsidies in any FTA with us but I bet they insist on lower food standards etc and as the far smaller negotiating partner we won't be in a strong position to say no. Where will the money come from for subsidies etc as a huge chunk of any supposed savings will need to go into the ongoing cost of developing the bureaucracy to do the jobs that pan EU organisations currently do and expanding existing Govt depts/expenditure to handle a crash out Brexit (ie. Increased Customs officers) That doesn't even take into account the economic impact on GDP and taxes of a crash out Brexit which you acknowledge will be great.

This is only looking at the economic impact of course, we haven't even considered the impact on things like scientific research (which also has positive economic spin offs), security co-operation (European arrest warrant/anti terror co-operation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445 ) etc etc.
 
Last edited:

RyanioBirdio

Well-known member
Joined
1 May 2018
Messages
1,201
We aren't obligated to buy from EU, where have you got that from?

Also, the EU have just completed a FTA with Japan that covers a huge % of the global GDP which will help mitigation significantly for the EU, coupled with the moving of businesses into EU countries to maintain frictionless/tariff free access (It is already happening) and access to the markets that the EU already have FTAs with. Also, you keep talking about the EU being in an economic mess:

I can find this which suggests GDP growth over the longer term in the EU is better than the UK: https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

So talk me through your evidence?


How long do you think it will take us to mitigate a crash out Brexit? How long is your short term? After all Jacob Rees-Mogg talked about 50 years to see any Brexit benefits. Couple this with the need to have to negotiate with absolutely everybody worldwide, it will be a slow process to work through all these countries through simple logistics (never mind the complexities of each negotiation) as we have few negotiators and they have little experience then I suggest it will be an economic disaster for at least 20 years.

And those economic tools will mean little if they can't negate the tariffs (which will last for years and maybe in plenty of cases decades) or are you suggesting, as an example, that our Govt subsidise Lamb/Sheep farmers by an additional 40%+?. Do you really think the US will allow state subsidies in any FTA with us but I bet they insist on lower food standards etc and as the far smaller negotiating partner we won't be in a strong position to say no. Where will the money come from for subsidies etc come from as a huge chunk of any supposed savings will need to go into the ongoing cost of developing the bureaucracy to do the jobs that pan EU organisations currently do and expanding existing Govt depts/expenditure to handle a crash out Brexit (ie. Increased Customs officers? That doesn't even take into account the economic impact on GDP and taxes of a crash out Brexit which you acknowledge will be great.

This is only looking at the economic impact of course, we haven't even considered the impact on things like scientific research (which also has positive economic spin offs), security co-operation (European arrest warrant/anti terror co-operation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445 ) etc etc.
Don’t you come crashing in here with facts and common sense. The Brexiteers are patriots who are willing to help us through the unspecified years of chaos and disaster because when they’re dead and gone, their beloved Britain will finally see the fruits of their labour. Everybody knows that multi millionaires like JRM and his chums regularly do things that they themselves will not live to benefit from directly. If they weren’t then this would all be about benefitting personally from an economic crash, and you never saw anybody doing that during the 2008 financial crisis. This is about the red, white and blue!
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
5,612
We aren't obligated to buy from EU, where have you got that from?

Also, the EU have just completed a FTA with Japan that covers a huge % of the global GDP which will help mitigation significantly for the EU, coupled with the moving of businesses into EU countries to maintain frictionless/tariff free access (It is already happening) and access to the markets that the EU already have FTAs with. Also, you keep talking about the EU being in an economic mess:

I can find this which suggests GDP growth over the longer term in the EU is better than the UK: https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-higher-europe/

So talk me through your evidence?


How long do you think it will take us to mitigate a crash out Brexit? How long is your short term? After all Jacob Rees-Mogg talked about 50 years to see any Brexit benefits. Couple this with the need to have to negotiate with absolutely everybody worldwide, it will be a slow process to work through all these countries through simple logistics (never mind the complexities of each negotiation) as we have few negotiators and they have little experience then I suggest it will be an economic disaster for at least 20 years.

And those economic tools will mean little if they can't negate the tariffs (which will last for years and maybe in plenty of cases decades) or are you suggesting, as an example, that our Govt subsidise Lamb/Sheep farmers by an additional 40%+?. Do you really think the US will allow state subsidies in any FTA with us but I bet they insist on lower food standards etc and as the far smaller negotiating partner we won't be in a strong position to say no. Where will the money come from for subsidies etc as a huge chunk of any supposed savings will need to go into the ongoing cost of developing the bureaucracy to do the jobs that pan EU organisations currently do and expanding existing Govt depts/expenditure to handle a crash out Brexit (ie. Increased Customs officers) That doesn't even take into account the economic impact on GDP and taxes of a crash out Brexit which you acknowledge will be great.

This is only looking at the economic impact of course, we haven't even considered the impact on things like scientific research (which also has positive economic spin offs), security co-operation (European arrest warrant/anti terror co-operation - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445 ) etc etc.
We are very much obligated to buy from inside the system because it's kind of the whole point of a trade bloc - and I've had this discussion already last summer, so I'm not going over it again, have more interesting s**t to get on with.

The EU is a collective economic mess, and will lose one big economy soon and another is on the verge of recession as China are not buying their cars in such numbers and another big market could become a tariff headache soon.

State subsidies can be a part of what we do in the short or medium term while we are on WTO terms - something Comrade Corbyn is very keen on BTW, regardless of where we end up. We don't know what a potential US deal could look like, what we will mutually agree on and how long it will take to even get there. Oooh look, there's a squirrel. ;)

And with all this mess, the Tories somehow have a 7 point in some polls. 7 points bloomin points! Labour should be 7 points up and it shows the complete rankness of the leadership of that that they aren't setting the tone and the Govt are attempting to buy off moderates support to get a deal over the line.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
12,026
We are very much obligated to buy from inside the system because it's kind of the whole point of a trade bloc - and I've had this discussion already last summer, so I'm not going over it again, have more interesting s**t to get on with.

The EU is a collective economic mess, and will lose one big economy soon and another is on the verge of recession as China are not buying their cars in such numbers and another big market could become a tariff headache soon.

State subsidies can be a part of what we do in the short or medium term while we are on WTO terms - something Comrade Corbyn is very keen on BTW, regardless of where we end up. We don't know what a potential US deal could look like, what we will mutually agree on and how long it will take to even get there. Oooh look, there's a squirrel. ;)

And with all this mess, the Tories somehow have a 7 point in some polls. 7 points bloomin points! Labour should be 7 points up and it shows the complete rankness of the leadership of that that they aren't setting the tone and the Govt are attempting to buy off moderates support to get a deal over the line.
We aren't obligated to buy from within the EU. Obligation means we have to when we don't have to. It may be cheaper in plenty of cases as no tariffs and far less bureaucracy (and therefore less cost) to buy in the single market but we are not legally bound to buy the EU product. As an obvious example, walk down a Supermarket wine aisle, alongside your old world wine (France, Spain, Germany etc) you will find a lot of new world wines (Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa etc). We aren't obligated to buy the old world wine. You need to look up the definition of obligation.

Again, evidence for the EU being a collective economic mess?

You still haven't explained how state subsidies and these other economic tools will negate the impact of the tariffs? Or where the cash is going to come from for these subsidies and other tools after Brexit? Less "oooh, look a squirrel" by the way, far more an "Ostrich with its head in the sand". ;)

Or how long the short term impact is going to be in your opinion? And how many years do you think it will take to mitigate the economic impact of a crash out Brexit on the UK economy? Especially with the lack of expertise and negotiator numbers to negotiate with the whole world as we will have to do.

I'm absolutely confident the US will demand lower agricultural standards in any FTA as the powerful Agricultural lobby are already putting pressure on Congress and the US would be in a far stronger negotiating position than us.

Frankly I don't care what Corbyn wants as he is useless as the Maybot. Corbyn (and Momentum) is the reason we don't have a decent opposition and with FPTP it ensures we're stuck with the rubbish of either of Labour/Tories (although the Tories far more likely). You're right that a decent opposition would be well clear of this Govt in the polls.

I also agree on the use of bribes to MPs from deprived areas. Especially as this Govt and the Tory Party were the ones who focused on austerity.
 
Last edited:

ZeroTheHero

Well-known member
Joined
7 Dec 2017
Messages
3,230
I'm absolutely confident the US will demand lower agricultural standards in any FTA as the powerful Agricultural lobby are already putting pressure on Congress and the US would be in a far stronger negotiating position than us..
They are already pushing for us to accept the import of chlorinated meat and to reduce our limits on the amount of pesticides allowed on the skin and in the inside of fruit and veg. A sign of things to come when you are negotiating from a position of weakness.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
12,026
They are already pushing for us to accept the import of chlorinated meat and to reduce our limits on the amount of pesticides allowed on the skin and in the inside of fruit and veg. A sign of things to come when you are negotiating from a position of weakness.
The US Agricultural lobby are also pushing for the UK to drop "protected geographical designations of origin" that are protected under EU law in our economy. The US wine industry is one of those keen as they want to trade US fizzy wine as Prosecco in the UK.

Edit: I would add that Trump has already demonstrated his backing to the Agricultural industry by supporting it after he started his trade war with China.
 
Last edited:

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
5,612
We aren't obligated to buy from within the EU. Obligation means we have to when we don't have to. It may be cheaper in plenty of cases as no tariffs and far less bureaucracy (and therefore less cost) to buy in the single market but we are not legally bound to buy the EU product. As an obvious example, walk down a Supermarket wine aisle, alongside your old world wine (France, Spain, Germany etc) you will find a lot of new world wines (Australia, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa etc). We aren't obligated to buy the old world wine. You need to look up the definition of obligation.

Again, evidence for the EU being a collective economic mess?

You still haven't explained how state subsidies and these other economic tools will negate the impact of the tariffs? Or where the cash is going to come from for these subsidies and other tools after Brexit? Less "oooh, look a squirrel" by the way, far more an "Ostrich with its head in the sand". ;)

Or how long the short term impact is going to be in your opinion? And how many years do you think it will take to mitigate the economic impact of a crash out Brexit on the UK economy? Especially with the lack of expertise and negotiator numbers to negotiate with the whole world as we will have to do.

I'm absolutely confident the US will demand lower agricultural standards in any FTA as the powerful Agricultural lobby are already putting pressure on Congress and the US would be in a far stronger negotiating position than us.

Frankly I don't care what Corbyn wants as he is useless as the Maybot. Corbyn (and Momentum) is the reason we don't have a decent opposition and with FPTP it ensures we're stuck with the rubbish of either of Labour/Tories (although the Tories far more likely). You're right that a decent opposition would be well clear of this Govt in the polls.

I also agree on the use of bribes to MPs from deprived areas. Especially as this Govt and the Tory Party were the ones who focused on austerity.
I discussed EU trade with Flean ad nauseum. I can't be arsed to go back and re-argue the same points again and again.

EU collective mess - Italy recession and recent bank bail out, Germany on verge of recession, sluggish historic growth across the Bloc (inc UK), mass youth unemployment in Southern States, Greece's continued sluggish economy laden with historic debt, no Govts in Belgium and Sweden still leading to unsure economic policy, etc. Very few EU economies can mitigate the coming recession IMO. Are you confident in the EUs economies?

I think the short term impact of "No Deal" will be hard for us and the EU and I have said that constantly since the vote - I wish you'd take that point in. Time wise, I don't know as there are so many unknowns. As we both know, the Govt's on all sides can find magic money trees when they feel the need. I note the UK Govt are close to appointing one of the worlds leading trade negotiators for when we leave.

I am glad you have finally agreed on Corbyn. It's taken months for you to get that far. Well done.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
12,026
I discussed EU trade with Flean ad nauseum. I can't be arsed to go back and re-argue the same points again and again.

EU collective mess - Italy recession and recent bank bail out, Germany on verge of recession, sluggish historic growth across the Bloc (inc UK), mass youth unemployment in Southern States, Greece's continued sluggish economy laden with historic debt, no Govts in Belgium and Sweden still leading to unsure economic policy, etc. Very few EU economies can mitigate the coming recession IMO. Are you confident in the EUs economies?

I think the short term impact of "No Deal" will be hard for us and the EU and I have said that constantly since the vote - I wish you'd take that point in. Time wise, I don't know as there are so many unknowns. As we both know, the Govt's on all sides can find magic money trees when they feel the need. I note the UK Govt are close to appointing one of the worlds leading trade negotiators for when we leave.

I am glad you have finally agreed on Corbyn. It's taken months for you to get that far. Well done.
So you haven't looked up a definition of obligation then.

Yet that collective EU mess as you put it is doing better than the UK economy so we must be in deep, deep trouble (and that is without Brexit). Germany going into recession would suggest the world economy is slowing down considerably, especially with the US-China trade war. If that is the case then we are even more screwed.

I did take your point in about on the short term as I referred to it a few posts back. My question was specifically about time scales. So am I right in thinking you are happy to gamble with our economy/people's lives without knowing how long it will take to recover or even if it will recover? Rees-Mogg clearly is with his 50 years comment.

We'll need more than a magic money tree, we'll need a huge forest of them.

I'm far more confident in the EU economies riding out and mitigating a recession whether caused by Brexit or a slowdown in the world economy than ours which will in all likelihood get decimated (in particular Manufacturing which a number of ERG/Brexiteers have acknowledged). Especially as they have many FTAs including the the new one with Japan which covers a 1/3 of global GDP.

1 negotiator isn't going to go very far when we have the whole world to negotiate with.

You're utterly wrong on my views on Corbyn by the way, I've never liked him and I've openly said so on here. I have him on a par with May, BoJo etc which is why we are screwed as whoever wins it is a rum lot.

The politicians at the top/or highly influential behind the scenes of the 2 main parties are awful. Labour with Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Seamus Milne and Momentum whilst the alternative is May, BoJo, Liam Fox, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, the right wing faction (including the ERG) etc. And you want either side of this lot to negotiate new trade deals?! This country is screwed.
 

Gary Baldi

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
5,612
So you haven't looked up a definition of obligation then.

Yet that collective EU mess as you put it is doing better than the UK economy so we must be in deep, deep trouble (and that is without Brexit). Germany going into recession would suggest the world economy is slowing down considerably, especially with the US-China trade war. If that is the case then we are even more screwed.

I did take your point in about on the short term as I referred to it a few posts back. My question was specifically about time scales. So am I right in thinking you are happy to gamble with our economy/people's lives without knowing how long it will take to recover or even if it will recover? Rees-Mogg clearly is with his 50 years comment.

We'll need more than a magic money tree, we'll need a huge forest of them.

I'm far more confident in the EU economies riding out and mitigating a recession whether caused by Brexit or a slowdown in the world economy than ours which will in all likelihood get decimated (in particular Manufacturing which a number of ERG/Brexiteers have acknowledged). Especially as they have many FTAs including the the new one with Japan which covers a 1/3 of global GDP.

1 negotiator isn't going to go very far when we have the whole world to negotiate with.

You're utterly wrong on my views on Corbyn by the way, I've never liked him and I've openly said so on here. I have him on a par with May, BoJo etc which is why we are screwed as whoever wins it is a rum lot.

The politicians at the top/or highly influential behind the scenes of the 2 main parties are awful. Labour with Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Seamus Milne and Momentum whilst the alternative is May, BoJo, Liam Fox, Michael Gove, Chris Grayling, the right wing faction (including the ERG) etc. And you want either side of this lot to negotiate new trade deals?! This country is screwed.
As I said, I discussed with Flean and I can't be arsed to go back again and repeat the same discussion. I have better things to do (shocking right). I opened the research I did earlier and thought nah, not going there again.

The last EU recession wrecked the bloc and they have really not recovered. That was with political stability that is not apparent now, with a big change coming in the European Parliament. It's hard enough to recover with a single economy, 27 is tough with some countries barely on the up tick. How willing are the Germans to bail out other countries again?

The reason I won't answer about timescales is because I simply don't have enough information about what trade discussions have been had and what timescales are for each deal. After all, I'm not a member of HMG. For example, if the UK joined TPP, the timescales would be different than if we didn't. Etc. Equally, could a No Deal last 3 months before a deal is agreed to with the UK and EU? So many imponderables.

Crawford Falconer is the man for trade discussions. I suggest you look him up as he ticks a lot of boxes, especially with the WTO.
 

Marked Ox

Well-known member
Joined
6 Dec 2017
Messages
12,026
As I said, I discussed with Flean and I can't be arsed to go back again and repeat the same discussion. I have better things to do (shocking right). I opened the research I did earlier and thought nah, not going there again.

The last EU recession wrecked the bloc and they have really not recovered. That was with political stability that is not apparent now, with a big change coming in the European Parliament. It's hard enough to recover with a single economy, 27 is tough with some countries barely on the up tick. How willing are the Germans to bail out other countries again?

The reason I won't answer about timescales is because I simply don't have enough information about what trade discussions have been had and what timescales are for each deal. After all, I'm not a member of HMG. For example, if the UK joined TPP, the timescales would be different than if we didn't. Etc. Equally, could a No Deal last 3 months before a deal is agreed to with the UK and EU? So many imponderables.

Crawford Falconer is the man for trade discussions. I suggest you look him up as he ticks a lot of boxes, especially with the WTO.
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/obligation. I leave this here then with a few bottles of Chilean and South African wine.

So you can predict all the variables to see the EU crashing and them not being able to mitigate the damage of us leaving under a crash out brexit, but can't do the same thing for the UK or estimate a very rough timescale due to too many variables.

Hahahaha, you really put the UK and the EU agreeing a trade deal in 3 months as a hypothetical when it has taken far longer over the Withdrawal Agreement and that isn't finished?!

The TPP would require a drop in food standards etc iirc as the US would insist. But then cheap US food might be necessary as leading Brexiteer economist Patrick Minford said a crash out brexit will pretty much destroy Agriculture and Manufacturing in this country.

That is one negotiator, so we have somebody who can maybe be involved with a couple of trade negotiations over a year. Who is going to do the rest?
 

Similar threads


Top Bottom