National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Gary Baldi]

There's about a million ifs still in the process.....

But if the EU won't negotiate further on the Withdrawal Agreement (probable) and if they won't allow another extension beyond Oct 31st (less certain) or if Boris won't accept one (which is what he says.....but we know how fungible what BoJo says is), then as far as I see it, parliament has three options before October 31st:

1) Revoke Article 50
2) Ratify the existing Withdrawal Agreement (assuming Bercow lets it come back to the floor this time)
3) Pass a Vote of No Confidence in the government (which would surely trigger the EU allowing an additional delay while we sort out a new government)

If they failed to get the votes for any one of those, then yes - absolutely - No Deal Brexit would be the default option.

Tend to agree that #1 and #2 are unlikely to ever get the votes. But #3? I think that's much more likely in the face of a No Deal Brexit. The likes of Clarke, Hammond & Gauke seem to be willing to fall on their swords to prevent one......

The problem #3 is full of ifs and buts as Labour as an utter shambles. The EU would have to assume it would fall in their favour to do an extension, and the mood music is they are fed up and want to move on. It's why some are assuming there will be a No Deal now because the UK is a complete political mess.

And Parliament would need to agree to overturn Article 50 too. While the speaker is amenable, with the parliamentary recess starting tomorrow, plus party conference season, that is a hell of a lot to fit in. Especially when the speaker put the kibosh on Alan Duncan's motion yesterday.

 

[Essexyellows]

There's about a million ifs still in the process.....

But if the EU won't negotiate further on the Withdrawal Agreement (probable) and if they won't allow another extension beyond Oct 31st (less certain) or if Boris won't accept one (which is what he says.....but we know how fungible what BoJo says is), then as far as I see it, parliament has three options before October 31st:

1) Revoke Article 50
2) Ratify the existing Withdrawal Agreement (assuming Bercow lets it come back to the floor this time)
3) Pass a Vote of No Confidence in the government (which would surely trigger the EU allowing an additional delay while we sort out a new government)

If they failed to get the votes for any one of those, then yes - absolutely - No Deal Brexit would be the default option.

Tend to agree that #1 and #2 are unlikely to ever get the votes. But #3? I think that's much more likely in the face of a No Deal Brexit. The likes of Clarke, Hammond & Gauke seem to be willing to fall on their swords to prevent one......

IIRC there can`t be another vote of No Confidence in the Government until Jan 2020, a year after the most recent?
Something written in to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act?
I could be wrong though.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

The last vote of no confidence in the Government was 1979 (Calaghan was defeated and general election called)

What is a vote of no confidence?

Opposition parties call for an immediate general election following the resignation of Liz Truss.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Essexyellows]

How does a vote of no confidence in the government work? - Full Fact

A vote of no confidence is one of two ways that parliament can trigger an early general election. Although MPs first have 14 days to try and form a new government if the vote passes.

fullfact.org

I got confused..... it was TM that was protected by a year within the Conservative Party.... my bad!

 

[Essexyellows]

However, just when you need a good opposition....

Brexit SABOTAGE: Swinson in no confidence bid to block no deal Brexit

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT leader Jo Swinson has put down a no confidence motion against Boris Johnson in a desperate bid to stop a no deal Brexit - demanding Jeremy Corbyn backs her.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Gary Baldi]

However, just when you need a good opposition....

Brexit SABOTAGE: Swinson in no confidence bid to block no deal Brexit

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT leader Jo Swinson has put down a no confidence motion against Boris Johnson in a desperate bid to stop a no deal Brexit - demanding Jeremy Corbyn backs her.

www.express.co.uk

Yesterday was the last day to do it. Oh Jeremy Corbyn ?

 

[Sarge]

The Sun appears to be backing Johnson & his cabinet of Teletubbies ....

 

[Gary Baldi]

He looks like he has the worlds worse case of jaundice in that photo.

 

[chuckbert]

Maybe it’s right that we leave the EU as we’re clearly not fit to be members:

Child poverty cash handed back to Europe unspent

Peers say it is "unbelievably inept" that deprivation funding could be handed back unspent.

www.bbc.com

Who the f**k gives back money (that we gave in the first place according to the brexit rhetoric) that is earmarked for the desperate? Tories, that’s who.

 

[Essexyellows]

Maybe it’s right that we leave the EU as we’re clearly not fit to be members:

Child poverty cash handed back to Europe unspent

Peers say it is "unbelievably inept" that deprivation funding could be handed back unspent.

www.bbc.com

Who the f**k gives back money (that we gave in the first place according to the brexit rhetoric) that is earmarked for the desperate? Tories, that’s who.

Or........ the attached rules & regulations (because it is now magically "EU money") are to stringent.

"There were initial plans in the UK to use this for school breakfast clubs in deprived areas, but these were not eligible for the funding. "

Now if we had just kept the money that we sent them in the first place we could spend it as we wish.....................

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Now if we had just kept the money that we sent them in the first place we could spend it as we wish.....................

Yep, and I am sure that Boris and his cronies will be allocating it to the needy...

 

[chuckbert]

So they couldn’t find anything else to spend it on? Clearly Britain doesn’t have any child poverty then.
This seems to be a reason we need the EU to save us from ourselves. If we can’t even spend money on deprived kids when that’s what the label is, we sure as s**t wouldn’t if we kept the money here: it would be off in boris and teresa’s mates offshore investment accounts before you could say “panama papers”.

 

[Essexyellows]

Yep, and I am sure that Boris and his cronies will be allocating it to the needy...

If the economy grows everyone benefits....... its been like that since dot.
I wouldn`t mind betting your standard of living is higher than your parents.
I know mine certainly is.

The problem is everyone now expects that to be given to them with little/no effort.
As a child in the 1970`s on a Council Estate in Oxford, single parent family, working parent..... there weren`t any foodbanks & there weren`t any hungry kids either!
You ate what you were given or went hungry & it wasn`t some tinned/processed either.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

If the economy grows everyone benefits....... its been like that since dot.
I wouldn`t mind betting your standard of living is higher than your parents.
I know mine certainly is.

Ahh right. So giving money to people who keep their money off-shore to avoid paying tax helps society and particularly the poor? Right.

My late Dad (and still living Mum) actually had/have a great standard of living, although I don't think they are typical. Interestingly enough he was also a business man who managed to retire at 50 and then became Chairman of his local Conservative party, but was more of an old-fashioned 'paternalistic' one-nation Tory who believed it was the duty of the well off to 'look after' the less well off, perhaps by helping them to help themselves - but he never believed that all the money any wealth of society should be concentrated in the hands of the few and it was just up to everyone else to sink or swim...

 

[Whingit]

If the economy grows everyone benefits....... its been like that since dot.

I'm not sure I really know how to make my point, but endless growth is not sustainable. Resources are not endless and when chasing after resources is something that brings a lot of growth, surely there's only so long it can go on for before something gives?

 

[Essexyellows]

Ahh right. So giving money to people who keep their money off-shore to avoid paying tax helps society and particularly the poor? Right.

My late Dad (and still living Mum) actually had/have a great standard of living, although I don't think they are typical. Interestingly enough he was also a business man who managed to retire at 50 and then became Chairman of his local Conservative party, but was more of an old-fashioned 'paternalistic' one-nation Tory who believed it was the duty of the well off to 'look after' the less well off, perhaps by helping them to help themselves - but he never believed that all the money any wealth of society should be concentrated in the hands of the few and it was just up to everyone else to sink or swim...

I`m sure you never shop with Amazon et al ?
Tax avoidance has also gone on since dot!
I would agree with your father, help them by all means...but don`t make it a career choice!

 

[Essexyellows]

I'm not sure I really know how to make my point, but endless growth is not sustainable. Resources are not endless and when chasing after resources is something that brings a lot of growth, surely there's only so long it can go on for before something gives?

Completely understand that............. the growth of the human race and its consumption is what will finish the planet & "us".
Sadly all economies are driven by consumption & printing money........... can`t stop that.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Tax avoidance has also gone on since dot!

It has, but it's the government's/revenue's job to minimise that, not (as I suspect our new Dear Leader will do) to facilitate it to 'encourage business'.

 

[tonyw]

The way the rhetoric is going at the moment, No Deal Brexit is starting to look more and more likely.

One side or the other is going to have to have a humiliating climb-down if it's to be avoided (or parliament's going to have to oust BoJo through a vote of No Confidence when they come back in early September).

Good thing Britain is well prepared for this, and isn't just sitting down to prepare for this seriously for the first time today. Wait, what?

 

[Gary Baldi]

In some respects, now is the greatest time to be alive: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/19/world-bank-global-poverty-rate-drops-to-record-low.html

Diseases that were life threatening years ago are treatable, etc, etc.

It completely runs contrary to the narratives we see in the media and from politcians where the perception is it's never been worse. I am not for moment saying everything is good and don't wish to though.