Matches Last six matches

[theWizard]

I'd like to think we can secure 7 more points... realistic? enough?

 

[Osei Yaw]

I was interested to see what the stats said about the quality of chances we've been creating and conceding since Manning and Hogg came in, so I've had a look at xG (expected goals) for Manning's 4 games in charge so far. Then for comparison I had a look at Robinson's last 4 games (plus Short's 2 in the middle for good measure).

I know xG has it's limitations but it can be a useful indicator over a period of time of what is and isn't going well.

Here's what the xG says:



So according to xG, we've made vast improvements on the quality of chances we concede since Manning has come in compared with Robinson's last 4 games. We've also made slight improvement in the amount we should be scoring too. Interesting that Short also saw a big improvement from Robinson when he had 2 games of playing players in the correct positions, not messing round with the captaincy or leaving players isolated in the reserves.

We've got to hope that Manning continues on this trend. It's not glamorous but if we can just keep grinding points out then we have a chance. I also think we need to knock this idea of only being able to get points from the lesser teams on the head. We were good value for our point against Sheffield Wednesday and we need to believe we can go and do the same against Bolton on Saturday.

 

[uptheus]

The thing about this sequence of 4 draws is it can only really be judged in retrospect, by the first game that we don't draw. If it's a win, the whole sequence will suddenly look a lot better; if it's a loss, it suddenly looks awful.

Be prepared then!!

 

[RyanioBirdio]

I also think we need to knock this idea of only being able to get points from the lesser teams on the head. We were good value for our point against Sheffield Wednesday and we need to believe we can go and do the same against Bolton on Saturday.

I don’t think anybody has said that, but you have a much better chance of knocking out a lightweight than a heavyweight. Especially if you’re a lightweight yourself, who hasn’t won a fight in fourteen. If a boxer fought above their catch weight for a couple and put up a really decent show, then fought at their own weight and suddenly looked second best in every round, eyebrows would be raised.

And yes, I am advocating for a training montage, complete with raw eggs and someone being sick in a bucket.

 

[uptheus]

I was interested to see what the stats said about the quality of chances we've been creating and conceding since Manning and Hogg came in, so I've had a look at xG (expected goals) for Manning's 4 games in charge so far. Then for comparison I had a look at Robinson's last 4 games (plus Short's 2 in the middle for good measure).

I know xG has it's limitations but it can be a useful indicator over a period of time of what is and isn't going well.

Here's what the xG says:

View attachment 12813

So according to xG, we've made vast improvements on the quality of chances we concede since Manning has come in compared with Robinson's last 4 games. We've also made slight improvement in the amount we should be scoring too. Interesting that Short also saw a big improvement from Robinson when he had 2 games of playing players in the correct positions, not messing round with the captaincy or leaving players isolated in the reserves.

We've got to hope that Manning continues on this trend. It's not glamorous but if we can just keep grinding points out then we have a chance. I also think we need to knock this idea of only being able to get points from the lesser teams on the head. We were good value for our point against Sheffield Wednesday and we need to believe we can go and do the same against Bolton on Saturday.

So similar to Short’s reign?

 

[SteMerritt]

And yes, I am advocating for a training montage, complete with raw eggs and someone being sick in a bucket.

Sounds like a normal Saturday Night down Sheep Street to be fair.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

Sounds like a normal Saturday Night down Sheep Street to be fair.

Whatever you do, don’t go down Piggy Lane.

 

[SteMerritt]

Whatever you do, don’t go down Piggy Lane.

I'll bear that in mind.

 

[Osei Yaw]

I don’t think anybody has said that, but you have a much better chance of knocking out a lightweight than a heavyweight. Especially if you’re a lightweight yourself, who hasn’t won a fight in fourteen. If a boxer fought above their catch weight for a couple and put up a really decent show, then fought at their own weight and suddenly looked second best in every round, eyebrows would be raised.

And yes, I am advocating for a training montage, complete with raw eggs and someone being sick in a bucket.

Oh we're definitely a lightweight, no doubt about it. But my point is that our new trainer knows that we need to cover up a bit and box smarter. Whereas our former trainer used to send us out with our gloves on our feet, our shoes on our hands and our shorts round our ankles and hope for the best.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Amazing how fixtures have panned out:

Apr 29:
Accrington v Cambridge
FGR v Us

May7:
Cambridge v FGR
Us v Accrington

s**t, I hadn't realized Cambridge had FGR on the last day. That means we really can't draw our way to safety. It's actually possible that both we and Accy could go down on that last day, as Cambridge and MK are both finding some form.

 

[YellowTaxi]

3 points lead over Cambridge and a goal difference which is substantially better (ours is -10, there's -28) so essentially they will need to make 4 points up over us.

Games left.

Oxford: Bolton Cambridge Peterborough Accrington: Fleetwood

Oxford Portsmouth. Cambridge :Wycombe. Accrington Peterborough

Barnsley: Oxford Plymouth :Cambridge Portsmouth: Accrington



Oxford: Cheltenham. Burton: Cambridge Bolton: Accrington
Oxford: Forest Green Accrington: Cambridge

Oxford: Accrington Cambridge: Forest Green

 

[CCYellow]

Whereas our former trainer used to send us out with our gloves on our feet, our shoes on our hands and our shorts round our ankles and hope for the best.

Careful!

 

[tonyw]

Christ it’s going to be between us and Cambridge isn’t it… the media will love that, queue the ‘varsity’ and ‘boat race’ references. If Cambridge have their noses in front going into the last day we’ve had it. They’ve got as big a 3 point banker to finish with as you could hope for.

Please don’t let a fecking Sam Smith goal send us down…

Cambridge's next three fixtures are mighty tough - home to Peterborough on Saturday (who are the form side in the division - despite failing to beat us), home to Wycombe, away to Plymouth.

Unless they can pull out a shock victory (Wycombe the best bet, I guess, although we know what they're like) then they'll still be behind us going into those last three games, regardless of what we do.

Then, yes, their last three fixtures are as easy as you could hope for. But so are ours.

I reckon Accrington have a must-win game this Saturday at home to Fleetwood, because their next three fixtures after that are ugly.

So I'm still confident. Although a win soon would sure go a long way towards easing the stress.........

 

[YellowTaxi]

A lot tougher than Last season . Fleetwood stayed up with 40 points. We've already got that and there are 6 games to go.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Cambridge's next three fixtures are mighty tough - home to Peterborough on Saturday (who are the form side in the division - despite failing to beat us), home to Wycombe, away to Plymouth.

Unless they can pull out a shock victory (Wycombe the best bet, I guess, although we know what they're like) then they'll still be behind us going into those last three games, regardless of what we do.

Then, yes, their last three fixtures are as easy as you could hope for. But so are ours.

I reckon Accrington have a must-win game this Saturday at home to Fleetwood, because their next three fixtures after that are ugly.

So I'm still confident. Although a win soon would sure go a long way towards easing the stress.........

Can’t help thinking Accy and Cambridge will win on Saturday and that Cambridge will beat Wycombe.

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Oxford: Bolton Cambridge Peterborough Accrington: Fleetwood

Oxford Portsmouth. Cambridge :Wycombe. Accrington Peterborough

Barnsley: Oxford Plymouth :Cambridge Portsmouth: Accrington

Oxford: Cheltenham. Burton: Cambridge Bolton: Accrington
Oxford: Forest Green Accrington: Cambridge

Oxford: Accrington Cambridge: Forest Green

I'm glad you edited that, otherwise it may have been unclear.

 

[Pete Burrett]

Hmmm .... feeling rather pessimistic now. Inability to score means we're unlikely to win any of our last five games. Four draws would get us to 44 points, but Cambridge have hit some form and are likely to beat FGR. A couple more draws for them = 45 points.

 

[tonyw]

Hmmm .... feeling rather pessimistic now. Inability to score means we're unlikely to win any of our last five games. Four draws would get us to 44 points, but Cambridge have hit some form and are likely to beat FGR. A couple more draws for them = 45 points.

Yeah, I've gone from cautiously optimistic to fearing the worst after today. Not because of our result (which was expected) but because Cambridge got the surprise win they needed to close the gap on us.

Weird thing is that we and Cambridge have an almost identical pattern of fixtures from this point on:

- Home game on Tuesday against a side that's going to just miss the playoffs (Pompey for us, Wycombe for them)
- Away game on Saturday against one of the division's top teams (Barnsley for us, Plymouth for them)
- Accrington and Forest Green on the last two weekends
- Midweek game against a bad, but not relegation-threatened team (Cheltenham for us, Burton for them). The only difference is that ours is at home, theirs is away (and they play theirs a week later)

We have the GD advantage, but they're the team in form (whilst we're in our worst run since the season we came down from the top flight).

Personally, I give us one chance in three.

(and then there's probably a 1% chance that either Morecambe or Accy have a storming end to the season, and both us and Cambridge go down; and a 1% chance that we manage to bounce a couple of goals off someone's backside, Cambridge keep on their current run, and MKD finish badly and drop).

 

[yellowbow]

Yeah, I've gone from cautiously optimistic to fearing the worst after today. Not because of our result (which was expected) but because Cambridge got the surprise win they needed to close the gap on us.

Weird thing is that we and Cambridge have an almost identical pattern of fixtures from this point on:

- Home game on Tuesday against a side that's going to just miss the playoffs (Pompey for us, Wycombe for them)
- Away game on Saturday against one of the division's top teams (Barnsley for us, Plymouth for them)
- Accrington and Forest Green on the last two weekends
- Midweek game against a bad, but not relegation-threatened team (Cheltenham for us, Burton for them). The only difference is that ours is at home, theirs is away (and they play theirs a week later)

We have the GD advantage, but they're the team in form (whilst we're in our worst run since the season we came down from the top flight).

Personally, I give us one chance in three.

(and then there's probably a 1% chance that either Morecambe or Accy have a storming end to the season, and both us and Cambridge go down; and a 1% chance that we manage to bounce a couple of goals off someone's backside, Cambridge keep on their current run, and MKD finish badly and drop).

MK conceding a last minute goal yesterday is huge as far as I’m concerned. They are only 3 points ahead of us but have played a game more. We’ve obviously got to start finding out how to win a football match but they are in the brown stuff almost as much as we are. Quirky things always seem to happen, so what’s the betting it’ll be between LM’s two clubs this season, battling it out to stay up?

I’d also say that Port Vale are still in the mix. Which makes our failing to turn up against them last week all the more galling. 3 points against them last week would’ve been massive. But who’s to say that Eastwoods display last week might have lead to a point that contributes to our survival?

Still a lot of twists and turns to go yet. Yes Cambridge have had a good run but a slip up on Tuesday and their confidence might take a big knock leading to the wheels falling off on their mini revival.

I haven’t quite given up all hope yet but, christ, we need to start hitting the back of the bloody net!!

 

[Wallop]

Remarkably we are still 3/1 against going down with William Hill. I’m seriously thinking about lumping £100 on this - if I lose I’m happy, if I win, that’s next year’s season ticket paid for.

I hope I lose.