But I have to ask again, would you say Sunderland look like a team who could suddenly drop off? Because that is the more fair comparison
What’s the lowest Sunderland have been in the division this season? Because both this season and last season, we’ve been in and around the bottom quarter with a dozen games played before flying the other way.
In fact, I’ve just had a look at where Sunderland have been in the league at the end of each calendar month this season:
September: 5th
October: 7th
November: 8th
December: 11th
January: 6th
February: 5th
March: 3rd
They are currently still third.
So Sunderland have been well inside the top half of the table all season long, and bar December have never been below 8th at the end of any given month. That’s pretty consistent. They have been there or thereabouts from the first kick of a ball. Now let’s look at our league position at the end of each month this season:
September: 11th
October: 23rd
November: 19th
December: 15th
January: 8th
February: 9th
March: 9th
Manic. 11th to 23rd to 19th to 15th to 8th. We’re now back down to 12th from being 9th a week ago.
However, I believe that your point is that our form
last season was comparable to Sunderland’s this season. So here is our league position at the end of each month last season, to mirror theirs from this:
August: 18th
September: 10th
October: 5th
November: 6th
December: 2nd
January: 8th
February: 8th
Admittedly, pretty comparable from October onwards. But that last bit is kind of the point. Sunderland never plunged to the depths of the bottom quarter of the table like we did early in the season; they have shown consistency and been right on the cusp of playoffs if not inside them pretty much all the way through. Last season we won five league games in a row right before Covid hit, but we only won once in the eight league games
directly before that. Then directly before
that we lost just one league game in 15, but directly before
that we only won once in seven. So we were pretty unpredictable in a way they haven’t been. We already had form for swinging from one extreme to the other, so there is as much of a chance that we would’ve gone on a wobble as there is that we would’ve taken off like a rocket. Again, nobody knows. Sunderland this season, however, had one slightly rocky patch where they won once in nine games between game weeks 11-19, but even then they only lost twice. They were still picking up points. They’ve lost five games in 38 matches this season; last season we lost nearly double that in three games less. Again, a step up in consistency.
So I’m not sure it’s quite as perfect a comparison as you claim, but it’s not a million miles away. Although they still haven’t finished in the top two anyway. I do however think that our form this season
does have some kind of relevance to the debate, though, as when added to the mix it does point to us being wildly inconsistent by our very nature, which is kind of the point when people say they’re so sure that glory was inevitable a year ago. It’s still the same guy overseeing it all and his teams tend to have the same ‘flamboyant’ tendencies.
You also say we aren’t as good this season as last season in terms of the players but we’ve certainly not tightened the belt with a budget firmly in and around the top eight, while spending the fourth most on agents in the entire division. We also spent six-figure fees on the likes of Clare, McNally and Cooper while a lot of other clubs were busy trying to shed players due to the salary cap, let alone worrying about paying fees for new ones. Plus we spent pretty well on contracts for Brannagan, Taylor, Winnall etc as well as the loans, including Shodipo who has actually scored more goals than a player like Fosu did, for example. Fosu scored 10 in 33 last season, the last of which came in his 32nd game. Shodipo matched those 10 goals after just 22 games this season and has scored another since. Christ, even Winnall has scored one goal more than Mackie did last season in 20-odd games less. But that’s a separate issue.