Relegation - Who’s safe

Lincolyellow1

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The top 3 teams in league 1 look to be battling it out for the top two promotion places (Pompey, Hatters & Black Cats, with Luton probably missing out)...
The next four teams (Charlton, Barnsley, Peterborough & Doncaster) look to be in pole position take 3 of the 4 remaining play off positions.....
Coventry and Blackpool look to have enough about them to spend another season in this league.......
That leaves anyone from Fleetwood currently on 35 points and in 10th place right down to the 2nd bottom team who is currently Plymouth on 27 points (level with Bradford and us) which in reality is basically only 8 points covering 15 teams.....
Every point counts now and a 2 or 3 game winning streak could be priceless and could see any team leapfrog into the top 10, (and potentially safe for now)....
There are lots and lots of points to play for however somehow I feel that this season could see teams dragged into the mix who currently think they are safe (including us) and teams at the bottom (including us again) working harder to have a big push at the business end of the season....
 

Scotchegg

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Even if you take our recent blip, we have picked up 22 points in our last 16 games. Mirror those points per game for the remianing 19 games and we are hitting 54 points which is usually enough. The problem is that there are so many teams that could be pulled in, it is difficult to second guess anything right now. A couple of back to back wins could make a huge difference, and getting someone who can score a few cruicial goals to turn defeats into draws and draws into wins would not go amiss.
 

ZeroTheHero

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Even if you take our recent blip, we have picked up 22 points in our last 16 games. Mirror those points per game for the remianing 19 games and we are hitting 54 points which is usually enough. The problem is that there are so many teams that could be pulled in, it is difficult to second guess anything right now. A couple of back to back wins could make a huge difference, and getting someone who can score a few cruicial goals to turn defeats into draws and draws into wins would not go amiss.
Why would you include the halfway decent run but ignore the games before that? Over the season we have 27 points from 27 games - I've fired up my calculator and that will get us 46 points by the end of the season. Which won't keep us up. It is not impossible that we will improve - but we were seemingly very ropey for the first half today. Let's hope the second half form is what we take forward - we have just had a run of games against the lower half of the table teams and will need to improve significantly to have a chance of getting out of trouble.
 

Foley

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Why would you include the halfway decent run but ignore the games before that? Over the season we have 27 points from 27 games - I've fired up my calculator and that will get us 46 points by the end of the season. Which won't keep us up. It is not impossible that we will improve - but we were seemingly very ropey for the first half today. Let's hope the second half form is what we take forward - we have just had a run of games against the lower half of the table teams and will need to improve significantly to have a chance of getting out of trouble.
Why say we were ropey in the first half but by all accounts we were good in the second and after 3 defeats came back from 2 down to get a creditable draw away?
27 points from 27 isnt enough.
But a marginal improvement will be and after the first 11 games we have shown that we are capable of getting enough with a fair wind.
The opening poster is right. It is very tight and any of the bottom.half could go down.
 

Scotchegg

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Why would you include the halfway decent run but ignore the games before that? Over the season we have 27 points from 27 games - I've fired up my calculator and that will get us 46 points by the end of the season. Which won't keep us up. It is not impossible that we will improve - but we were seemingly very ropey for the first half today. Let's hope the second half form is what we take forward - we have just had a run of games against the lower half of the table teams and will need to improve significantly to have a chance of getting out of trouble.
But if everyone matched their points per game ratio at the moment for the season then the table wouldn't chnage and we'd go down by a point. But form flutuates and there will be teams escaping and others being drawn in.

The first 11 games were a mess. No denying that, but we have at least found some kind of structure to the team since then with Eastwood and Mous supporting a little more solidity. The 16 games since are more reflective of our current form and something we can hopefully mirror. Either way, a few defeats being turned into draws and a few draws becoming wins will make the difference. Safety is definitely possible, and mid table could be within our reach, but we could also be going into the last few games needing big results to stay up. We don't know at this stage, but it's not worth throwing the towel in just yet.
 

ZeroTheHero

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Why say we were ropey in the first half but by all accounts we were good in the second and after 3 defeats came back from 2 down to get a creditable draw away?
27 points from 27 isnt enough.
But a marginal improvement will be and after the first 11 games we have shown that we are capable of getting enough with a fair wind.
The opening poster is right. It is very tight and any of the bottom.half could go down.
Umm I did say the second half was better and hoped we would take that form forward! The 'creditable draw' (which I sort of agree it was based on the second half) means we have one point out of the last 12. I agree that there are many potential relegation candidates - and we are one of them! We now have a run of difficult games (I presume you agree with that?) and so will need to improve significantly (which I think is unarguable!).
I think that this squad is perfectly capable of going on a good run, but I also think it is perfectly capable of being dreadful for a run of games as well.
I suspect we might be going away to Luton on the last day with us needing a result to stay up and them needing a result to go up - which would be an interesting afternoon!
 

Scotchegg

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Umm I did say the second half was better and hoped we would take that form forward! The 'creditable draw' (which I sort of agree it was based on the second half) means we have one point out of the last 12. I agree that there are many potential relegation candidates - and we are one of them! We now have a run of difficult games (I presume you agree with that?) and so will need to improve significantly (which I think is unarguable!).
I think that this squad is perfectly capable of going on a good run, but I also think it is perfectly capable of being dreadful for a run of games as well.
I suspect we might be going away to Luton on the last day with us needing a result to stay up and them needing a result to go up - which would be an interesting afternoon!

It'll be great to f*** up their party!!!
 

Mellowyellow

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Umm I did say the second half was better and hoped we would take that form forward! The 'creditable draw' (which I sort of agree it was based on the second half) means we have one point out of the last 12. I agree that there are many potential relegation candidates - and we are one of them! We now have a run of difficult games (I presume you agree with that?) and so will need to improve significantly (which I think is unarguable!).
I think that this squad is perfectly capable of going on a good run, but I also think it is perfectly capable of being dreadful for a run of games as well.
I suspect we might be going away to Luton on the last day with us needing a result to stay up and them needing a result to go up - which would be an interesting afternoon!

Well if we do then we don’t get a train to London then to Luton this time, it’s via Banbury!
 

Foley

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Umm I did say the second half was better and hoped we would take that form forward! The 'creditable draw' (which I sort of agree it was based on the second half) means we have one point out of the last 12. I agree that there are many potential relegation candidates - and we are one of them! We now have a run of difficult games (I presume you agree with that?) and so will need to improve significantly (which I think is unarguable!).
I think that this squad is perfectly capable of going on a good run, but I also think it is perfectly capable of being dreadful for a run of games as well.
I suspect we might be going away to Luton on the last day with us needing a result to stay up and them needing a result to go up - which would be an interesting afternoon!
Well I do hope that you are a wrong on that last point.
52 points I would bet will be enough (maybe 50) So 25 points will keep us up. That's 7 wins 4 draws and 8 defeats. To get 50 points 6 wins 5 draws and 8 defeats.
So we have to win the games we have a decent chance in (points with Pompey Sunderland or Luton would be a bonus)
 

Mystery Yellow

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What’s the chances of us doing what Plymouth & Barnsley did over the previous few seasons I’d say very slim.

We need to double the points we are currently on with only 19 league games left to survive & with four horrendous home games on the trot to come + us the only team in the EFL not to win away from home yet + we haven’t got strikers to get us out of this mess it’s a major job on our hands I just don’t see how we will survive (& that’s not being negative it’s just being realistic) unless something majorly changes
 

Sharp Edges

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Even if you take our recent blip, we have picked up 22 points in our last 16 games. Mirror those points per game for the remianing 19 games and we are hitting 54 points which is usually enough. The problem is that there are so many teams that could be pulled in, it is difficult to second guess anything right now. A couple of back to back wins could make a huge difference, and getting someone who can score a few cruicial goals to turn defeats into draws and draws into wins would not go amiss.
This recent blip you talk about started in 2017, we have had relegation form for over a year. If you want to pick 16 games to suite your agenda thats up to you, the "blip" spans the entire length of Robinsons regime. We may improve slightly, if we dont we are down, a number of yellows fans appear to have picked up on this fact and arent happy about it.
 

DenisSmithsWig

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This recent blip you talk about started in 2017, we have had relegation form for over a year. If you want to pick 16 games to suite your agenda thats up to you, the "blip" spans the entire length of Robinsons regime. We may improve slightly, if we dont we are down, a number of yellows fans appear to have picked up on this fact and arent happy about it.
If you want to forget our form before Robinson came to the club to suit your agenda then that’s up to you. Our relegation form has been in place since Clotet was here. The club has been on a downward spiral since December 2017.

Unless something drastically changes then we will be relegated sooner or later.

The problem actually stems back to when Appleton was here and we progressed as a club at such a rate that it was never possible to sustain that level of improvement year on year when we never had the finances required.
Fans started to think it was failure if we weren’t pushing for the league 1 play offs the season after we got promoted. In reality we should of taken a look at the whole club, looked at what still needed to be down in order to reach the next step and sustain it.

If people want the club to progress again then we need to accept it’s going to be a long process, 3-4 years of building.
 

Concretebob

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Think the bottom four at the end of the season will be -

Rochdale
Bradford
Us
Wimbledon

Of course, I would much rather it wasn’t that way. Would rip your hand off to finish fifth bottom
 

Scotchegg

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This recent blip you talk about started in 2017, we have had relegation form for over a year. If you want to pick 16 games to suite your agenda thats up to you, the "blip" spans the entire length of Robinsons regime. We may improve slightly, if we dont we are down, a number of yellows fans appear to have picked up on this fact and arent happy about it.
I'm not sure that results from 2017 make much odds right now. However the last 5, 10, 16, 27 games are relevant and I chose to give an example which I felt was appropriate. We only need to pick up 1 more point than the bottom 4 to survive and that is definitely possible. It won't fill anyone with joy to scrape in 5th from bottom but it gives us a chance to regroup and start again. I'm not complacent, but equally I'm not writing us off just yet.
 

Sarge

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The top 3 teams in league 1 look to be battling it out for the top two promotion places (Pompey, Hatters & Black Cats, with Luton probably missing out)...
The next four teams (Charlton, Barnsley, Peterborough & Doncaster) look to be in pole position take 3 of the 4 remaining play off positions.....
Coventry and Blackpool look to have enough about them to spend another season in this league.......
That leaves anyone from Fleetwood currently on 35 points and in 10th place right down to the 2nd bottom team who is currently Plymouth on 27 points (level with Bradford and us) which in reality is basically only 8 points covering 15 teams.....
Every point counts now and a 2 or 3 game winning streak could be priceless and could see any team leapfrog into the top 10, (and potentially safe for now)....
There are lots and lots of points to play for however somehow I feel that this season could see teams dragged into the mix who currently think they are safe (including us) and teams at the bottom (including us again) working harder to have a big push at the business end of the season....
any club who has amassed less than 50 points come mid April is in 'danger' of being drawn in to what looks to be an intense relegation dog fight involving up to 8 or 9 candidates in L1
 

DenisSmithsWig

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If you look at the form table we are bottom with Shrewsbury, Walsall and Rochdale also making up the bottom 4.

I think Wimbledon will go down along with Rochdale who have been in a relegation battle a few years on the trot now and usually it's the 3rd season you finally go down if you are still fighting down there. I think it will then be 2 out of us, Bradford, Plymouth, Shrewsbury, and Rovers.

I do feel for Robinson in this transfer window as we need players to help us avoid the drop but we also want players who can be part of the long term success of the club.
 
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