Mathematically safe

mooro

Active member
#1
Timeline of when we can ACTUALLY be safe:

Just one of the following will do

SATURDAY
1) IF we win or draw against Rochdale then we are safe
2) IF we lose, then we are still safe if Oldham fail to beat Doncaster at home

TUESDAY:
3) IF Walsall did not beat Noton on Saturday, and then fail to win at at Bradford on Tuesday
4) IF AFCW lost to Wigan on Saturday, and then lose at Doncaster on Tuesday

SATURDAY
5) IF we win or draw at Blackburn
6) IF Oldham fail to win at Noton
7) IF Rochdale fail to beat Charlton at home
8) IF Walsall have not had two wins against Noton and Bradford, then fail to win at Fleetwood
9) IF AFCW fail to achieve four points from their games against Wigan, Doncaster and then Bury at home.

So unless nine separate events (most if not all of which are more likely to happen than not) all fail to transpire then we are safe....
 

windmill

Active member
#5
Timeline of when we can ACTUALLY be safe:

Just one of the following will do

SATURDAY
1) IF we win or draw against Rochdale then we are safe
2) IF we lose, then we are still safe if Oldham fail to beat Doncaster at home

TUESDAY:
3) IF Walsall did not beat Noton on Saturday, and then fail to win at at Bradford on Tuesday
4) IF AFCW lost to Wigan on Saturday, and then lose at Doncaster on Tuesday

SATURDAY
5) IF we win or draw at Blackburn
6) IF Oldham fail to win at Noton
7) IF Rochdale fail to beat Charlton at home
8) IF Walsall have not had two wins against Noton and Bradford, then fail to win at Fleetwood
9) IF AFCW fail to achieve four points from their games against Wigan, Doncaster and then Bury at home.

So unless nine separate events (most if not all of which are more likely to happen than not) all fail to transpire then we are safe....
Once again, are you getting help from the "Enigma Machine". Bletchley Park and all that! A couple of early goals (for us) and you can throw away all those computations............................Hang about, we never feel safe even leading two nil!!
 

Botox

Active member
#7
Another way to look at it,
yes, we only need 1 point to avoid the drop, but If we lose our last 2 games and stay on 53 points.

Then the teams below us all have to do the following to send us down.

Wimbledon would need to win 1 and get better goal av or win 1 and draw 1
And
Rochdale would need to win their last 2 games
And
Walsall would need to win 2 or win 1 and draw 2 and get better goal av
And
Oldham need win their last 2 games
 

ljs

Active member
#8
Another way to look at it,
yes, we only need 1 point to avoid the drop, but If we lose our last 2 games and stay on 53 points.

Then the teams below us all have to do the following to send us down.

Wimbledon would need to win 1 and get better goal av or win 1 and draw 1
And
Rochdale would need to win their last 2 games
And
Walsall would need to win 2 or win 1 and draw 2 and get better goal av
And
Oldham need win their last 2 games
AND Gillingham to get at least one draw from their last two games.
 

Botox

Active member
#9
AND Gillingham to get at least one draw from their last two games.
How did I miss that, second-hand enigma machines are not what they used to be :)

Saying that all we need is for Oldham to lose to Donny tomorrow and we cant be caught.
 
#12
For once i am going to be a positive beacon. There is zero chance of us going down.

Robinson has galvanized a big squidgy heap of diarrhea into a solid turd. The Donny result was just huge.

On the one hand i think we kind of deserved relegation for how utterly pap we have been at times. Its amazing there are worse teams. We have been sooooo bad.

But im super glad on the other hand. I think well be competetitve next season. And im excited again.
 

Dave T

Well-known member
#13
For once i am going to be a positive beacon. There is zero chance of us going down.

Robinson has galvanized a big squidgy heap of diarrhea into a solid turd. The Donny result was just huge.

On the one hand i think we kind of deserved relegation for how utterly pap we have been at times. Its amazing there are worse teams. We have been sooooo bad.

But im super glad on the other hand. I think well be competetitve next season. And im excited again.
Blimey, you go steady
 

yellowbow

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#14
For once i am going to be a positive beacon. There is zero chance of us going down.

Robinson has galvanized a big squidgy heap of diarrhea into a solid turd. The Donny result was just huge.

On the one hand i think we kind of deserved relegation for how utterly pap we have been at times. Its amazing there are worse teams. We have been sooooo bad.

But im super glad on the other hand. I think well be competetitve next season. And im excited again.
More accurate to say we’ve been so bad - at times. On other occasions, and I’ll say it, even under Pep, we’ve played good football. The league, as they say, doesn’t lie.
 

FalmouthOx

Active member
#19
More accurate to say we’ve been so bad - at times. On other occasions, and I’ll say it, even under Pep, we’ve played good football. The league, as they say, doesn’t lie.
But the Pep results were all early season, when we still had Mapp momentum. He acquired Mapps team who knew where and how to play/win at this level. As soon as a few holes he filled them from his Spanish sand pit. I could have matched Peps early season results with that start of season squad. I suspect he didnt win the dressing room and so brought in his own rear guard but we became awful - Pep didnt "suddenly" turn bad! - we started leaking goals and most importantly the "positive feeling" that we had enjoyed for a couple of years was gone. Thank god for KR who has patched us up and restored some belief, and whilst we might not be brilliant and definitely lack quality/confidence we have become hard to beat.
 

yellowbow

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#20
But the Pep results were all early season, when we still had Mapp momentum. He acquired Mapps team who knew where and how to play/win at this level. As soon as a few holes he filled them from his Spanish sand pit. I could have matched Peps early season results with that start of season squad. I suspect he didnt win the dressing room and so brought in his own rear guard but we became awful - Pep didnt "suddenly" turn bad! - we started leaking goals and most importantly the "positive feeling" that we had enjoyed for a couple of years was gone. Thank god for KR who has patched us up and restored some belief, and whilst we might not be brilliant and definitely lack quality/confidence we have become hard to beat.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m in no way a Pep supporter. I agree the (brief as they were) good performances were more by accident than design.
 
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