So...
KR post match from 7mins here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p071k1zn
Two points of interest along with the normal,
- ref
- passion
- desire
- work ethic
"we talk about expected goals, we're in the top six for what we should have scored...but its not about that, its about taking your chances"
"if you look at expected goals again we would have dominated that part of the statistical analysis"
Firstly, the total xG this season for each team (from Wyscout). Unsurprisingly the correlation between chances created and league position is pretty strong. Portsmouth, Luton, Barnsley, Doncaster, Charlton all leading is this respect and as such sit in the top 6.
I think it is generous to conclude we sit in the top six for chances created...there is obvious caveats here around different models, if KR only refers to open play chances etc, if reffering to only in the league. If KR's point is that we are underperforming our xG...we have an xG of 48.07, but have scored 43. As such, we 'should' have 5 more goals than we do going by the chances we have created then he would be correct. From what Ive seen it looks a leap to say we are in the top six for xG.
The second part re: dominating Rochdale last night, we will have to wait! I will edit the post once I find something.
Whilst on xG...looking at xG total for our team, Henry is by far in front...however Nelson is second. As a wider point, if Nelson goes this summer, it will affect both ends of the pitch.
Add this in to the P90 metric and Nelson is more of a goal threat than Whyte, Graham and Sykes: