Data bits

Shosho

Active member
#1
Not sure if anyone else has much of an interest, however I quite like the numbers behind the teams in league 1 and have been keeping a pretty basic spreadsheet of stuff.

I guess if you enjoy it you can follow (useful for betting also). This is just a personal thing that other might see of value.

I keep 2 tables, 1 with some basic numbers, another with Expected goals performance (xG) as this show to if a teams performance is sustainable based on quality of chances.


Screenshot 2018-10-15 at 12.09.30.png
xG Ratio - this is the culmination of xG for and against. For example Barnsley have created nearly 2 thirds of the best opportunities compared to their opponents. The stand outs being Fleetwood, Walsall and Peterborough challenging the top half despite conceding a fair amount of high quality chances.

SOT ratio - simply, the cumulative share of shots on target in matches.

Conversion - conversion rate of Shots on target...Sunderland, Fleetwood, Peterborough all above 40%!!!

TSR - Total shot ratio...the amount of shots for and against with the share. Oxford have pretty high volume.

Screenshot 2018-10-15 at 12.19.18.png
xG For - cumulative over the last 13 matches. Barnsley producing some big numbers. Shrewbury, Accrington, Rochadale producing similar numbers with differing results in number of goals scored.

Difference - uses xG and actual goals scored. Peterborough have scored 10 goals above 'expected' with the chances they have created!! Both Bristol and Shrewbury are creating plenty but are having issues converting...

Difference2 - same as the above but uses chances and goals scored against. Oxford have conceded 5 goals above that expected. This can be down to various things, however over time would expect this to drop. Walsall 'should' have conceded nearly 10 more goals!

What does this all mean?

Barnsley are the best team in the league. Plymouth are woeful. The performance of Peterborough and Fleetwood looks unsustainable. Oxford have a great opportunity in the coming matches vs Shrewsbury and Bristol. Both are having big issues up top.
 
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#3
When you look at our last few games the indications are there that we can turn this around

Plymouth they were woeful but we outplayed them and should have won more comfortably
Southend Could/Should have won and our draw is the only points they have dropped in the last 5 games
Luton We were outplayed first half but much better second deserved a draw but concede in 97th minute
Wimbledon Even Dons said we were the better team and should have won

Slowly we are getting players fit and the team is settling down having Dickie/Nelson with Mous in front of them gives us a more solid shape.The full backs are a worry and good sides will work us out.
In midfield with Browne and Whyte fit any team will fear us they hate players running at them
Carruthers and Henry are very good players and I'm sure Hansen will be once we get some confidence back

However the whole thing hinges on who we have up front,Mackie has shown us what we have been missing and I will start to worry again if he gets injured.Obika and Smith should be made to watch the Plymouth game and see what they should be doing.Most opposition centre backs will know they are in for an easy time if Obika plays which I can't really understand because he is a big bloke who should be putting himself about.

Finally Holmes if every player was as committed as he is we wouldn't be in this position he chases down lost causes,runs at defenders and gets free kicks other players wouldn't reminds me a lot of Mc Guire.

Hopefully we have turned a corner.
 

Shosho

Active member
#4
There seems to be some interest, so will look ahead to Bristol on Saturday!

Firstly, Bristol are on a horrible run. They've failed to score in the last 4 matches, 2 of which 0-0 vs Rochdale and Bradford.

The underlying issue is clearly converting chances. They've converted 17% of shots on target...the lowest in the league. However, they're 8th in the league for quality of chances created, xG 18.5. They clearly create, but in the last 4 matches have conceded higher quality chances than they have created.

Looking vs Burton, they managed this shot map:

Screenshot 2018-10-18 at 13.27.52.png

No attempts in the first half, speculative efforts in the second.

Vs Burton Bristol started playing 4-2-3-1 with Jakubiak as the lone striker. This changed to 4-4-2 with previous matches seeing 3-5-2 and 4-4-1-1. Is this a manager uncertain of his best team/formation? Kind of sounds familiar!

Finally, Bonham the GK on loan from Brentford has been outstanding with talk of an international call up.

Looking to Oxford. Things are looking (scarily) a little more positive. The return of Eastwood and Browne, Holmes having more influence, Nelson and Dickie establishing a partnership and importantly Mousinho playing a crucial role in front of the back 4 also freeing up Brannagan. Twin this with Mackie having his best performance of the season and Oxford will fancy a result.

vs Plymouth Oxford were clinical, finally appearing to create some quality efforts:

Screenshot 2018-10-18 at 13.37.12.png

Check all that stuff in the box. Still interspersed with our now trademark rubbish locations outside the box, however there were signs of creativity...how much can be attributed to a poor Plymouth we will see!

In terms of xG we were better than Wycombe, Walsall, Wimbledon and Southend (prior to Plymouth) so we are showing signs of life up top. The real issue has been conceding just over 40% of efforts on target. Hopefully, if we play similar to that of Southend/Plymouth we can keep out a poor Bristol.
 
#5
Think the aim for the time being should be to just focus everything on keeping that back line as solid as it can be and the rest should fix itself.
 

Shosho

Active member
#6
Think the aim for the time being should be to just focus everything on keeping that back line as solid as it can be and the rest should fix itself.
Whicj KR did when he first came last season.

Since Mousinho has gone in front of the back 4 these are the chances we have given up -

vs Southend:

Screenshot 2018-10-18 at 14.35.57.png

Vs Plymouth:
Screenshot 2018-10-18 at 14.37.08.png

Nothing over a 17% chance of being scored...
 

Foley

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#7
Good stats and backs up I guess what we see.
Whilst Plymouth were very poor, playing Southend at their place with them having won their previous 3-4 games was a very decent result and we obviously defended very well.
 

Shosho

Active member
#8
So...the next 4 games. Pretty big!

Shrewsbury
Scunthorpe
Gillingham
Bradford

Starting with Shrewbury:
Pretty interesting! In nearly 60% of their games they are creating better chances with an xG ratio of 57% (3rd best in the league)...around 60% is considered automatic promotion form. Twin this with a shots ratio of 58% (3rd best in the league), its curious how Shrewsbury are in 18th. They take plenty of shots, most of them decent quality. However, the issue is clearly conversion, currently they are running at nearly 22% of chances on target resulting in a goal. They 'should' have around 8 goals more than they currently have. Saturday looks to have 2 teams lacking up front whilst creating a fair amount.

Scunthorpe:
Firstly, they are converting at 35%...i'm not sure how sustainable this is in the long term. The main thing to note, they give up a lot of quality chances.They are running around 40% in both shot ratio and xG ratio and have conceded 227 shots over 15 games...conceding 30 goals (the 2nd most in the league). If it wasn't for some streaky finishing they would be struggling more than the present. This will be a match where we need to take our chances as it looks we mmay have plenty of them!

Gillingham:
Similar to Scunthorpe above, they have a conversion of 32% to thank for not being further in the mire. They are 23rd in nearly every metric and in most are below Plymouth! They give up chances for fun (most decent quality also), with 32% of shots on target from the opposition resulting in a goal. Eaves is the obvious threat scoring 7 of the 19 goals this season.

Bradford:
They appear to be pants. Bottom of the table in pretty much every sense. They create next to nothing (xG total: 17.2 over 15 games, goals 12...so 'should' have 5 more goals). They concede quality chances along with giving up nearly 15 shots a game! Payne and Doyle are the obvious threats accounting for 7 of the 13 goals theyve scored.

The above run of 4 games looks pretty season defining. We are playing some genuinely poor teams that we should be beating with the players we have. All of the above *appear* to be on a level around Plymouth, aside from Shrewsbury who's league position belies their performances. If Shrewsbury could finish they will climb the league (lets hope that hasn't just started vs Barnsley!)

The last 4 games have seen us tighten up at the back...however we haven't creating a whole lot going forwards. If we can start to get the front 4/5 clicking as we did vs Plymouth we could start climbing the league. Remove those bonkers long range efforts! This was vs Charlton :cry:

Screenshot 2018-10-25 at 11.42.42.png
 
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Shosho

Active member
#9
A decent start on Saturday.

Probably for the first time this season, we were clinical. In terms of xG, we had 0.6 with Shrewsbury having 0.4...we did well to score 3 goals from that! Here is our shot map:

Screenshot 2018-10-30 at 11.59.36.png

3 goals from 7 shots....the lack of attempts from the central areas and 6 yard box is something to look at going in to next few games.

The Scunthorpe/Plymouth match looked pretty mad! The timeline:

Screenshot 2018-10-30 at 12.03.57.png

By the looks of it Scunthorpe's high conversion looked to evade them. The shot map for them is something Oxford have failed to create all season...central attempts from the 6 yard box:


Screenshot 2018-10-30 at 12.08.10.png

Whilst Scunthorpe they created plenty they also gave up lots of quality efforts...we will need the clinical finishing we exhibited vs Shrewsbury once more!
 

MJB

Well-known member
#10
A decent start on Saturday.

Probably for the first time this season, we were clinical. In terms of xG, we had 0.6 with Shrewsbury having 0.4...we did well to score 3 goals from that! Here is our shot map:

View attachment 830

3 goals from 7 shots....the lack of attempts from the central areas and 6 yard box is something to look at going in to next few games.

The Scunthorpe/Plymouth match looked pretty mad! The timeline:

View attachment 831

By the looks of it Scunthorpe's high conversion looked to evade them. The shot map for them is something Oxford have failed to create all season...central attempts from the 6 yard box:


View attachment 832

Whilst Scunthorpe they created plenty they also gave up lots of quality efforts...we will need the clinical finishing we exhibited vs Shrewsbury once more!
These reports of yours are brilliant - please do keep creating them as they are genuinely insightful.
 

Foley

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#12
So in your original tables Scunny were 13th but seemed to be overachieving based on the fact that they were scoring a high % of their shots which were unlikely to continue and conceded chances?

Since then they have dropped like a stone, but had a load of chances against Plymouth?

I wonder how much this was due to Plymouth being particularly poor defensively or whether both sides went for it and it was a very open second half especially?
 

Shosho

Active member
#13
So in your original tables Scunny were 13th but seemed to be overachieving based on the fact that they were scoring a high % of their shots which were unlikely to continue and conceded chances?

Since then they have dropped like a stone, but had a load of chances against Plymouth?

I wonder how much this was due to Plymouth being particularly poor defensively or whether both sides went for it and it was a very open second half especially?
Correct!

Scunthorpe were 13th in the league, however their underlying numbers suggested that may not be sustained. They are currently converting around 33% (league average this season is 29%) of their attempts on target.

Combine this with the fact they give up a lot of good quality - 28xG total this season (3rd worst in the league), 34 goals conceded (worst in the league) and it points to a possible drop.

The quality of attempts they concede is one thing, however there is sheer volume also. They've conceded 239 shots, 38% of which that are on target result in a goal.

The Plymouth match is a funny one in that Scunthorpe created the 2nd best attack they've managed this season (only against Charlton was better) however Plymouth created the best chances of the season....highlighting our point that the Scunthorpe defence concedes plenty in way of volume and quality
 

Foley

Well-known member
2018-19 shirt sponsor for Jamie Hanson
#14
I kind of take that as a positive.
If we play well going forwards and from dead ball situations we should get a few decent chances.
We need to defend a lot better than Plymouth, which based on recent performances has a fair chance.
Thanks for the updates by the way.
 
#15
To follow this up...adding a few opinions (could of course be wrong!)

The primary difference for us is a rise in our conversion...we are now running at close to 30% of our attempts on target. Sunderland and Peterborough are still above 40% (which is pretty mad) and Fleetwood the surprise as they create pretty low volume and lower quality chances than their opponents.
Screenshot 2018-11-13 at 11.24.18.png

Secondly...

I think its fair that both Sunderland and Peterborough could see a drop in league position. Sunderland have scored 10 goals above that which we expect...whilst they 'should' have conceded 10 more than they have.

Towards the bottom my primary concern is for the quality of chances we create. In our matches we create an average xG of 1.12 per match....if we could sort our shot locations we could see a rise up the table (should we sustain 29% conversion).

Screenshot 2018-11-13 at 11.24.36.png
 

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