Data bits

Shosho

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KR mentioning expected goals...says we are in the top six for xG created.

Says we will have dominated xG this evening also.
 

Shosho

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So...

KR post match from 7mins here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p071k1zn

Two points of interest along with the normal,
  • ref
  • passion
  • desire
  • work ethic
"we talk about expected goals, we're in the top six for what we should have scored...but its not about that, its about taking your chances"

"if you look at expected goals again we would have dominated that part of the statistical analysis"


Firstly, the total xG this season for each team (from Wyscout). Unsurprisingly the correlation between chances created and league position is pretty strong. Portsmouth, Luton, Barnsley, Doncaster, Charlton all leading is this respect and as such sit in the top 6.

I think it is generous to conclude we sit in the top six for chances created...there is obvious caveats here around different models, if KR only refers to open play chances etc, if reffering to only in the league. If KR's point is that we are underperforming our xG...we have an xG of 48.07, but have scored 43. As such, we 'should' have 5 more goals than we do going by the chances we have created then he would be correct. From what Ive seen it looks a leap to say we are in the top six for xG.

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The second part re: dominating Rochdale last night, we will have to wait! I will edit the post once I find something.

Whilst on xG...looking at xG total for our team, Henry is by far in front...however Nelson is second. As a wider point, if Nelson goes this summer, it will affect both ends of the pitch.

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Add this in to the P90 metric and Nelson is more of a goal threat than Whyte, Graham and Sykes:

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Shosho

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Right, so basically he’s making wild claims that are factually inaccurate, but sound really convincing if he says it with just enough conviction?

Kind of sums up his entire tenure in my opinion. Billy Bullshit.
I will caveat that there are differing models, however even using Wyscout as a base I'm not sure models will vary so much as to make that leap.

Talking about the analytics stuff is a bit of a safe haven in that not many can challenge you.

The part I don't understand is that if the club have some analytical understanding as to why we've had 469 shots...211 from outside the box :oops:...this has yielded 4 goals.

The only thing we are remotely near the top of the league in is fouls suffered and number of yellow cards we have accrued (KR does have a small point about refereeing, not enough to be a weekly excuse).
 

Jerome'SAle

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Loving your work here shosho. It does appear we are performing moderately behind xg but nowhere near what KR claims. And, to be honest, what do you expect when your striking recruitment has been so poor.

Nelson anytime goalscorer this week then
 

Shosho

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Loving your work here shosho. It does appear we are performing moderately behind xg but nowhere near what KR claims. And, to be honest, what do you expect when your striking recruitment has been so poor.

Nelson anytime goalscorer this week then
We should have scored more, but there has been plenty of talk (again from KR last night) around how solid we are defensively...it may be skewed by results early in the season however we have conceded nearly 8 goals above that which we 'should' have.

Nelson hit the cross bar again last night....just keep putting a few quid on him to score along with being the first goal scorer ;)
 

Sarge

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We should have scored more, but there has been plenty of talk (again from KR last night) around how solid we are defensively...it may be skewed by results early in the season however we have conceded nearly 8 goals above that which we 'should' have.

Nelson hit the cross bar again last night....just keep putting a few quid on him to score along with being the first goal scorer ;)
In his previous 5 min FF KR asserted, when asked if he/oufc were considering specialist defensive and striker coaches to work with first team squad players, that Ian Wright had been in (once) and that we (oufc) apparently dont need specialist defensive coaches as we (oufc) have SD & DF ! ..... hmmmm , given we're (at least) 8 more goals conceded than we should be ( according to @Shosho 's excellent stats analayising ).... seems SD and DF have been coaching our defenders brilliantly, NOT,... certainly not imo
 

Shosho

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To follow up the second part of KR's quote around dominating xG vs Rochdale...here is the timeline from Experimental361:

1230

Not sure I would call that domination.

We did have some good chances however:


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Still translates to two shots on target....3 shots on target in total vs relegation rivals in the last 2 matches....
 

Shosho

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Despite being critical of set pieces, its clear we do have some sort of plan...it hasn't really translated to goals, but Statsbomb have us 5th for chances created:

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PottersRightBoot

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Either side could have won on Tuesday. We had more chances but Rochdale’s were more clear cut.

Whyte’s failure to hit the target with his chance was, wifh hindsight, woeful.
 

AbbeyOx

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if only we could get that round thing between those two white things.
Seems managers over complicate it all the time. put your best players in their best positions, stop the ball going in your own goal and score at the other end. simples
 

ljs

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Latest Statistical Analysis updated tonight.
Not sure how they come to the conclusion that Wycombe have less chance of relegation than us. They are just 2 points ahead, and have to play us at our place, and have had 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 8 matches.
 

MJB

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Not sure how they come to the conclusion that Wycombe have less chance of relegation than us. They are just 2 points ahead, and have to play us at our place, and have had 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 8 matches.
I think the clue might be in your post.
 
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