National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Marked Ox]

The numbers just aren't there for May's deal, so where does that leave us? Labour won't vote for it, the SNP won't vote for it, the ERG won't vote for it. If it doesn't pass, the EU won't renegotiate and we kind of just fall out in that regard.


I think Labour are as split, but they are letting the Govt rip itself apart. There has been talk of a Europhile party, but ultimately they'd be on the fringes with such a niche issue and those MPs would more than likely sink without a trace at the next election.

The only majority that seems to exist with regards Brexit is a majority against no deal and the amendment voted through last week (Dominic Grieves I think) means a no deal exit can be blocked (if I've read it correctly).

It is certainly an interesting time for the Tories with a genuine risk of a proper split. Plenty of MPs (40 iirc from the BBC) have said they would resign the whip if Boris or JRM became leader. The ERG/Eurosceptics will continue regardless and if anything have hardened their view whilst on the opponent side their views have hardened likewise. In the past the disagreements tended to be dealt with privately, now there it is all in the public. There seems little to no room for compromise between the factions.

Agree on Labour, they are apparently being deliberately quiet so the 2 wings of the Tories carry on tearing themselves apart.

 

[Peterdev]

I wouldn’t believe any politicians after the brexit debacle. They want to keep us in and the talk of renegotiation is absolute rot.
They are excellent at spin...as an example the suggestion that Theresa May has the complete support of the party and increased her majority...whoopee increased by 1 to 200-117.
Those that say they’ll leave the party if Boris becomes leader will soon change their stance if they get a call to take a ministerial promotion.
The days of conviction politicians seem long gone. Then you get snakes in the grass like Michael Gove who’d do anything to be leader

 

[Marked Ox]

I wouldn’t believe any politicians after the brexit debacle. They want to keep us in and the talk of renegotiation is absolute rot.
They are excellent at spin...as an example the suggestion that Theresa May has the complete support of the party and increased her majority...whoopee increased by 1 to 200-117.
Those that say they’ll leave the party if Boris becomes leader will soon change their stance if they get a call to take a ministerial promotion.
The days of conviction politicians seem long gone. Then you get snakes in the grass like Michael Gove who’d do anything to be leader

I'm fairly certain Heidi Allen would disagree with your point about being bought off with a ministerial position if Boris was leader.

 

[Yellow River]

 

[tonyw]

The numbers just aren't there for May's deal, so where does that leave us? Labour won't vote for it, the SNP won't vote for it, the ERG won't vote for it. If it doesn't pass, the EU won't renegotiate and we kind of just fall out in that regard.

I'll wager that if May can't get any more concessions before January 21st - and can't get her deal through parliament either - then we'll end up with a 'kicking the can down the road' Brexit postponement for another year.

As has been stated, almost the only thing that MPs seem to agree in a majority for is that they don't want a 'No Deal' Brexit. But if parliament can't agree on a deal, and if parliament doesn't want to outright reject the will of the people by holding another referendum (both of which things I believe are true) then it seems to me that an extension is the only logical course.

Then we'll need new leadership to try a different tack (in Europe, and in parliament). Probably another general election as well.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

This seems to reflect the views of the more sanguine of the commentators I've heard today.

May's deal rejected by parliament. Brexit postponed. Certainly no chance of a (brainless) no deal exit. General election likely.

I agree that it seems the most plausible solution (albeit a temporary one).

The interesting question then is, do we pause Article 50 (which I'm pretty sure requires agreement from the EU member states) or do we withdraw Article 50 (which we can do without EU agreement).

First option would be tricky and time for negotiating that is getting extremely short.

Second option would be quick and clean, but brexiteers will see it as remain by the back door unless there was a cast-iron undertaking to trigger A50 again once we'd got some form of deal everyone could live with.

Both are still fraught with problems by may be the best and only hope of avoiding hard brexit.

As an aside, I had to laugh out loud last night when Ken Clarke was being interviewed on R4 about potential replacements for May. Of Boris Johnson, he said he's good fun and good company but he wouldn't trust him to run a whelk stall[emoji1787]

 

[Yellow River]

If we do get another General Election, then I assume the Torries will have a new leader as May has already ruled herself out. That in itself will be extremely interesting, another remain supporting PM & Chancellor or a completely different direction? The wording in the new manifestos (re Brexit) will be intriguing to say the least.

In the last General Election, Labour accepted the result of the referendum and said that freedom of movement would end. The Torres pledged to leave the single market and Customs Union.

Saying that I still think the public will have another referendum forced upon them.

 

[carefreeoufc]

Would also be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems pocket more seats as a result of their consistent stance on staying in or informed vote.

I know the student fees/ConDem Government hit them hard but I’d imagine they’d claw a fair few seats back in ‘remain’ constituencies.

Hopefully that’s not how future GE will be looked at but I’m sure it will play a part.

 

[tonyw]

If we do get another General Election, then I assume the Torries will have a new leader as May has already ruled herself out. That in itself will be extremely interesting, another remain supporting PM & Chancellor or a completely different direction? The wording in the new manifestos (re Brexit) will be intriguing to say the least.

Whilst I think it would be a lose-lose proposition for the country, I can't deny that there would be a certain fascination in seeing a Rees-Mogg vs. Corbyn general election campaign. Within mainstream politics, I don't think a wider divergence in political philosophy would be possible. Both major parties would basically be putting forward their most extreme stereotypes - the uber-posh Eton-educated right-wing Tory bigot vs. the cardigan and sandal wearing peace out uber-socialist radical.

Makes a bit of a difference from e.g. Blair vs. Hague, when you could barely slide a cigarette paper between their political views, and it just became a question of who's the most believably sleaziest (it was Blair, obviously, every time).

I'd love to watch those debates, as long as they told Uncle Vince and all the other party leaders to get bent.

 

[Marked Ox]

I agree that it seems the most plausible solution (albeit a temporary one).

The interesting question then is, do we pause Article 50 (which I'm pretty sure requires agreement from the EU member states) or do we withdraw Article 50 (which we can do without EU agreement).

First option would be tricky and time for negotiating that is getting extremely short.

Second option would be quick and clean, but brexiteers will see it as remain by the back door unless there was a cast-iron undertaking to trigger A50 again once we'd got some form of deal everyone could live with.

Both are still fraught with problems by may be the best and only hope of avoiding hard brexit.

As an aside, I had to laugh out loud last night when Ken Clarke was being interviewed on R4 about potential replacements for May. Of Boris Johnson, he said he's good fun and good company but he wouldn't trust him to run a whelk stall[emoji1787]

Apparently we'd be on dodgy legal ground if we were to rescind Article 50 to gain more time. There would be a legal challenge as some legal expert on the BBC reckoned we can only rescind if we actually intend to stay in.

 

[tonyw]

The interesting question then is, do we pause Article 50 (which I'm pretty sure requires agreement from the EU member states) or do we withdraw Article 50 (which we can do without EU agreement).

Can't see that the EU wouldn't agree to do this - a no deal Brexit messes them up as well; just not quite to the same extent as it does Britain!

 

[Gary Baldi]

The only majority that seems to exist with regards Brexit is a majority against no deal and the amendment voted through last week (Dominic Grieves I think) means a no deal exit can be blocked (if I've read it correctly).

It is certainly an interesting time for the Tories with a genuine risk of a proper split. Plenty of MPs (40 iirc from the BBC) have said they would resign the whip if Boris or JRM became leader. The ERG/Eurosceptics will continue regardless and if anything have hardened their view whilst on the opponent side their views have hardened likewise. In the past the disagreements tended to be dealt with privately, now there it is all in the public. There seems little to no room for compromise between the factions.

Agree on Labour, they are apparently being deliberately quiet so the 2 wings of the Tories carry on tearing themselves apart.

I'd wager a hefty sum that BoJo or JRM will never be the leader of the Tories. Gove stole BoJo's moment when Maybot won. Perhaps if Maybot had not obfuscated so much, she'd have a vaguely unified party. Her habit of ambushing MPs has finally back fired on her.

I still have no idea what Labour's position is and I don't think they do.

I'll wager that if May can't get any more concessions before January 21st - and can't get her deal through parliament either - then we'll end up with a 'kicking the can down the road' Brexit postponement for another year.

As has been stated, almost the only thing that MPs seem to agree in a majority for is that they don't want a 'No Deal' Brexit. But if parliament can't agree on a deal, and if parliament doesn't want to outright reject the will of the people by holding another referendum (both of which things I believe are true) then it seems to me that an extension is the only logical course.

Then we'll need new leadership to try a different tack (in Europe, and in parliament). Probably another general election as well.

Extending the Article 50 period comes with a cost and depends on their whim and although there are legal way to stop it, I'd think it would be an option of no return for the large political parties. It's not a simple thing and the mood from Europe is this is it.

Which is why No Deal largely seems the most likely solution. 2 sides who won't budge. How desperate are the EU for their £39 billion?

 

[carefreeoufc]

Probably not as worried now they’ve signed a free trade deal with japan worth a third of Global GDP.

 

[Marked Ox]

I'd wager a hefty sum that BoJo or JRM will never be the leader of the Tories. Gove stole BoJo's moment when Maybot won. Perhaps if Maybot had not obfuscated so much, she'd have a vaguely unified party. Her habit of ambushing MPs has finally back fired on her.

I still have no idea what Labour's position is and I don't think they do.


Extending the Article 50 period comes with a cost and depends on their whim and although there are legal way to stop it, I'd think it would be an option of no return for the large political parties. It's not a simple thing and the mood from Europe is this is it.

Which is why No Deal largely seems the most likely solution. 2 sides who won't budge. How desperate are the EU for their £39 billion?

Labour's position, from what I've seen in the media, is that the members overall want another Referendum whilst Corbyn and co want another general election.

After Dominic Grieve's amendment I expect the majority against a no deal Brexit will block it happening. There is already plenty of talk of MPs from across the house working together when May's deal fails to stop a cliff edge no deal Brexit regardless of what the various Parties' leaderships want.

 

[makv]

Probably not as worried now they’ve signed a free trade deal with japan worth a third of Global GDP.

“They” is currently “we”, sadly.

 

[Essexyellows]

So no negotiating to be done according to the EU.
Can`t see why she`s staying for Day Two.
They want to know "what we want".
We need to spell it out clearly that either the Irish backstop is time limited or we walk away with No Deal, stop paying and then renegotiate.
They can chuck their "deal" in the bin.
We`ve got a Tory government until 2022, Corbyn et al will not pull the trigger of No confidence because they don`t want to take the job on.
The leaders, the people and the country needs to buckle up & get on with it.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

So no negotiating to be done according to the EU.
Can`t see why she`s staying for Day Two.
They want to know "what we want".
We need to spell it out clearly that either the Irish backstop is time limited or we walk away with No Deal, stop paying and then renegotiate.
They can chuck their "deal" in the bin.
We`ve got a Tory government until 2022, Corbyn et al will not pull the trigger of No confidence because they don`t want to take the job on.
The leaders, the people and the country needs to buckle up & get on with it.

But the problem with that is it will only satisfy a very small minority in parliament and in the country at large, I would wager.

I still don't think that crashing out with no deal is ever going to be "the will of the people".....if only there were a way to put that to the test.

The crux (as has oft been said on this thread) is that the question was far too simplistic, nobody was armed with enough facts, the campaigns for both sides were abject (but not really surprising given where political debate is) and not enough time was given to consider all the options (that we should have had)properly.

 

[Gary Baldi]

Labour's position, from what I've seen in the media, is that the members overall want another Referendum whilst Corbyn and co want another general election.

After Dominic Grieve's amendment I expect the majority against a no deal Brexit will block it happening. There is already plenty of talk of MPs from across the house working together when May's deal fails to stop a cliff edge no deal Brexit regardless of what the various Parties' leaderships want.

Barry Gardiner wants one thing, the Shadow Justice Secretary wants another, etc. I watched Politics Live the other week and in one program the policy changed! One minute it's a "people's vote", the next it's an election, then it's a customs union (but is it in EU or not). Their position is as volatile as the Tories is and equally as impossible to pin down. It's quite something to see two political parties be hopelessly split.

 

[Paul Cannell]

Labour's (or Corbyn's) position (or refusal to take a position) on Brexit is dishonourable, cowardly and abdicates the position of standing for the 'common man' to the right. Brexit in any form will make the goals of democratic socialism* unattainable (more unattainable) and facilitate the wholesale redistribution of national wealth in favour of multinationals and robber barons with offshore trusts.

Labour has missed this golden opportunity to establish a cohesive left position by refusing to let Brexit happen because it will damage the people who voted for it the most, and explaining why. Rot in Hell, Jeremy.


* What a shame David "Doctor Death" Owen is dead; only he could have stepped and made a convincinig Marxist analysis from the patrician point of view.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

It is such a shame that the political direction of travel is seemingly going to be defined by such a small and insignificant issue as our relationship with the EU.

There are far more pressing and important issues that need tackling now, both at home and globally in terms of poverty, health, education, security and environment, but ALL are being ignored to deal with what started as a massive self-destructive act of vanity of one political party.

This is the real crime of Brexit.