National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Gary Baldi]

Let alone them spending to build a hard border on Ireland - can't see the UK Govt ponying up for that one.

 

[mooro]

Let alone them spending to build a hard border on Ireland - can't see the UK Govt ponying up for that one.

Donal Trump likes building walls

 

[Yellow River]

It’s almost 3 years since Cameron called the referendum.

It would appear that in that time as little as possible has been done to prepare for a clean Brexit. Cameron & Osborne both remainers believed they wouldn’t lose the vote, so why would they bother to make any plans? May and Hammond both remainers have come up with a deal that hardly anyone on either side supports. Perhaps they should’ve putting in plans for the possibility of a Canada+++ style deal.

In my opinion it can be strongly argued that the PMs & Chancellors of the last 3 years are guilty of a derelict is of duty in there lack of planning for a clean Brexit.

I’m disappointed but not surprised by the actions (or inactions!) of Cameron, Osborne, May & Hammond. I’m more convinced then ever that a 2nd referendum will be forced on the public, leave which has already been rejected will be an option. Project fear will go into hyperdrive.

Brexiteers need to accept that this is what will now happen. Resistance is futile!

 

[Peterdev]

Couldn’t agree more with your analysis. I’ll be every surprised if we exit, and we have put up with that drunkard commissioner strutting around as though he is more important than the USA President

 

[Gary Baldi]

Donal Trump likes building walls

Unlike his American cousin who talks a lot about building a wall but hasn't done it yet.

 

[HayfieldYellow]

We default to WTO which mitigates the initial impact (or puts the tourniquet on)

It does nothing of the sort, and anybody who writes this sort of thing simply reveals they don't understand what WTO terms mean.

Can I suggest you read this - it's by a Leave-supporting organisation and it explains fairly concisely the problems with the WTO option. It concludes "It [the WTO option] would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected."

I'd be interested to hear your reasons as to why you think they're wrong.

 

[Essexyellows]

It does nothing of the sort, and anybody who writes this sort of thing simply reveals they don't understand what WTO terms mean.

Can I suggest you read this - it's by a Leave-supporting organisation and it explains fairly concisely the problems with the WTO option. It concludes "It [the WTO option] would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected."

I'd be interested to hear your reasons as to why you think they're wrong.

There are 164 member states in the WTO,slightly more than the 27 in the EU................ in fact the EU just duplicates what the WTO does.
There are very many studies & research papers that support the WTO as beneficial to its members, its not the "pits of hades" that some think!

https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...-world-trade/A62FC1DB7553625D9A544C135AA34C52

https://econofact.org/u-s-trade-policy-going-it-alone-vs-abiding-by-the-world-trade-organization

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/697085

As the "semi-remain deal" has no hope of progressing it is nice to know that we do have something to fall back on that isn`t an affront to democracy.
Dig around enough and even the LSE say that WTO isn`t that bad... http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/01/27/post-brexit-trade-can-thrive-under-wto-rules/

 

[sadoldsod1778]

Also remember when they keep on of the problems at Dover 90% of lorries crossing channel aren't British so who's got the problem the French i think.
Macron (spelling) when asked would he give the French a referendum he said no as he thinks they would vote out. what does that tell you about the EU.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

This is a quite useful "at a glance" table setting out the various trade deal options available: https://www.instituteforgovernment....uture-economic-partnership-table-final-vb.pdf

And this from the same site takes a fairly broad look at the range of post brexit economic impact forecasts and tries to draw some conclusions/observations. https://www.instituteforgovernment....s/2018 IfG Brexit impact [final for web].pdf

It doesn't come across as particularly biased in any way (but who am I to judge), and at 66 pages contains a lot of detail which (I found) fairly clearly set out. In essence there is a lot of detail here, but for me, this is the kind of detail you need to digest and understand if you want to really form an opinion.

 

[Beckdale16Bicester]

There are 164 member states in the WTO,slightly more than the 27 in the EU................ in fact the EU just duplicates what the WTO does.
There are very many studies & research papers that support the WTO as beneficial to its members, its not the "pits of hades" that some think!

https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...-world-trade/A62FC1DB7553625D9A544C135AA34C52

https://econofact.org/u-s-trade-policy-going-it-alone-vs-abiding-by-the-world-trade-organization

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/697085

As the "semi-remain deal" has no hope of progressing it is nice to know that we do have something to fall back on that isn`t an affront to democracy.
Dig around enough and even the LSE say that WTO isn`t that bad... http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/01/27/post-brexit-trade-can-thrive-under-wto-rules/

I believe a WTO official who has just left the organisation said just operating on WTO rules is like being in league 2 while staying in the EU is like playing in the Premier league.

 

[Peterdev]

It’s getting interesting now. No confidence vote prevented by government due to time allowed in parliament.
Still see a second referendum happening because of parliament deadlocked.
Three way question
Accept new terms of exit
Leave with no deal
Stay in EU
My hunch is we will stay in, and a lot who voted no last time won’t bother vot8ng again. Government will be overjoyed claiming it’s the right decision.

 

[Gary Baldi]

The 2nd referendum depends on Maybot, who says no. And frankly, there isn't enough time to get a vote together, the text agreed upon by all sides and campaigns setup before we leave in March. Unless Article 50 is revoked or extended. And judging by the EUs intransigence, I can only see staying for a vote as the only option, and that would likely get the Leave vote out again, which is what Remainers would not want. For better or worse, Maybot and the EU have played an unintended blinder in terms of options. The politically expedient options are we either leave in March or drift out 2 years later.

No matter how much the SNP and Labour complain, they are stuck.

 

[Leysboy]

I would certainly find it amusing IF there was a second referendum, and Leave won again! There shouldn’t be another referendum. If Remain won, we would never of had this talk about another vote etc. We would of just had to of accepted it and moved on.

Mrs May’s Job is simple even though she was a remainer. She must ensure we Leave the EU in March, that’s what the majority of people voted for. whether it’s her deal, or a no deal. The longer this goes on, then the likelihood of a no deal looks more and more likely.

 

[Gary Baldi]

And I think where some in Parliament are playing a clever hand is saying, oh, we can't decide, give it to the people, knowing they have a good chance of winning. They forget the default option is No Deal, because they don't want it. It still amazes me that the EU won't budge a little on the backstop text, and this whole charade would be over.

To give Maybot credit, delaying the vote is kind of taking the 2nd voter MPs down at the knees

 

[Essexyellows]

It’s getting interesting now. No confidence vote prevented by government due to time allowed in parliament.
Still see a second referendum happening because of parliament deadlocked.
Three way question
Accept new terms of exit
Leave with no deal
Stay in EU
My hunch is we will stay in, and a lot who voted no last time won’t bother vot8ng again. Government will be overjoyed claiming it’s the right decision.

There can`t be 3 questions as that would be seen to split the vote one side or another, depending on the wording.

There could be a peoples vote on Accept or Reject......... then what? Lets say "Reject (aka Leave)" wins a landslide of 70%/30% on a 30% turnout? Will that be accepted?

Parliament accept May`s "deal" on the basis of some words that could be interpreted either way re: The backstop.......... and we get another 2 years to sort things out. Most likely outcome...............

 

[Essexyellows]

I believe a WTO official who has just left the organisation said just operating on WTO rules is like being in league 2 while staying in the EU is like playing in the Premier league.

All the member states of the EU operate under WTO rules. The EU is just another layer of bureaucracy.
The comparison to the PL its very apt. The PL inflates its own status to continually generate wealth that stays at the top and doesn`t filter down effectively. Just like the EU...............

 

[Essexyellows]

They do, but if you look at the link I posted higher up this thread, that's pretty irrelevant.

What's relevant is how many trade agreements are actually signed under WTO rules. The answer is, in the case of most countries, not many.

Oh good .... Mourinho sacked.

"Most of the UK’s trade is with the EU or countries the EU has trade agreements with—about 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports in 2016. That means it doesn’t happen under standard World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

But EU trade agreements don’t affect tariffs on all goods and services. Some goods and services have the same tariff level for countries the EU has trade agreements with and those it doesn’t.

If the UK were to leave the EU with “no deal”, we would go back to trading under WTO terms with these countries.

Source: https://fullfact.org/europe/does-most-uk-trade-happen-outside-eu-and-trade-agreements/

Nice payday for Jose....

 

[Marked Ox]

The 2nd referendum depends on Maybot, who says no. And frankly, there isn't enough time to get a vote together, the text agreed upon by all sides and campaigns setup before we leave in March. Unless Article 50 is revoked or extended. And judging by the EUs intransigence, I can only see staying for a vote as the only option, and that would likely get the Leave vote out again, which is what Remainers would not want. For better or worse, Maybot and the EU have played an unintended blinder in terms of options. The politically expedient options are we either leave in March or drift out 2 years later.

No matter how much the SNP and Labour complain, they are stuck.

The Speaker of the House can sideline the Maybot if they consider the Govt 'enfeebled' and Parliament deadlocked as a result. Then the House as a whole would be given control to take the process forward. Bercow is already unimpressed with the Maybot's recent actions around Brexit votes and he is unconventional so it could happen.

I'm sure I've read elsewhere, the EU will extend A50 for another referendum so no intransigence there at all.

 

[Gary Baldi]

The Speaker of the House can sideline the Maybot if they consider the Govt 'enfeebled' and Parliament deadlocked as a result. Then the House as a whole would be given control to take the process forward. Bercow is already unimpressed with the Maybot's recent actions around Brexit votes and he is unconventional so it could happen.

I'm sure I've read elsewhere, the EU will extend A50 for another referendum so no intransigence there at all.

He absolutely can do that, but is there a majority to extend article 50 to enable parliament taking control of the process and agreeing on something? The "people's vote" crew can't even agree on wording, let alone what to do. I think Maybot worded stuff in a way by delaying the vote that it makes it hard. A rare bit of forethought.

The EUs intransigence on helping Maybot has really limited the options. A little assistance on the wording on the backstop would help her, but they pushed her head further into the dirt. They are almost forcing a No Deal on us

 

[Leysboy]

Good let’s have it. No Deal would suit me fine.

Margaret Thatcher would of told them to fook off long ago.