A question for those who know about planning.
As the timescale in the proposal is as below, what would be a reasonable time frame from planning being submitted, to actually being approved on a project of this size, so that construction could begin?
May 2022: legal and preplanning due diligence concluded.
May 2023: planning application submitted.
May 2026: construction of the new Stadium to be completed.
This is an area I work in.
This entirely depends on a number of things including the councils and the general drivers. You can usually class these as important requirements (housing/schools/other important infrastructure), general requirements (commercial/retail), and luxury requirements (Aston Martin museum, Bicester Water Park). I would put this slap bang in between important and general requirements, given that based on what we have seen so far (very little), this would free up 25+ acres across two sites for Oxford City Council to build on land that previously was not stated in their development plans. This is potentially a very good position to be in, depending on how OCC and Cherwell Council look at things. Luxury requirements would take years of fighting planning etc.
There is the potential that given this could free up a hell of a lot of land for the city council not outlined in the regional plan, that as part of the agreement going through Cherwell Council may not need to build as many homes. This is a good negotiation piece and would help Cherwell to come to a positive conclusion.
The second obstacle is the Green Belt. Again, 15 years ago this would have never passed, however the recent changes within government for the building of homes (despite the many cock ups they've made) has really opened up more land for development providing there is a substantial wider benefit. Given the number of homes that would be built on brownfield sites in the city, I would argue this is a substantial wider benefit. It would also take a bit of land that is a loss-leader for Cherwell Council, again another favourable outcome.
Despite this, there will be big pressure from Green groups & local residents. There always is. I think the two major concerns will be Green Belt (per above) and traffic. The club will have received advice on a traffic survey by now, and may have already conducted one (we don't know this, but to me it seems like the club has done much more than a typical pre-planning stage would require usually). I would hope given the environmental & sustainability goals we're setting out that this will not throw up any surprises given the expectations of public transport usage. If this survey is positive, the councillors would more than likely disregard traffic concerns, though often the project teams will start with the bare minimum of concessions for traffic, and expect to have to do certain things (employ traffic management companies, pay for better services etc).
I'm blind to the work that has been conducted so far. I honestly can't tell how much work has already been conducted. Given the clubs anticipated timeline, I expect a fair amount, but given that we seem to be between phase 2 & phase 3 of the RIBA stages of works, I would expect that the club will certainly have a good indication by August 2023 as to whether this will go through. The planning application process should be 10-15 weeks for a project of this size, maybe longer due to more public consultation, though naturally if it's rejected and recommendations made this process shall restart.
I think that May 2026 is a stretch; I reckon the end of 2026 is a fair assumption if they just focussed on the stadium build. Given the fact that the council may request things like the cricket/rugby stuff goes up before building commences, it's a lot to do in a little amount of time.