National News Brexit - the Deal or No Deal poll

[Navegante]

MPs try to pin John Bercow to his seat during late-night mayhem in parliament

Labour MPs attempted to interrupt the prorogation ceremony - before being bundled aside by officials

www.independent.co.uk

Make your protest by all means but trying to hold the Speaker in his seat, just wow! It just strikes me as something off a playground.

In 1621 five MPs sat on the Speaker to prevent prorogation. There's a precedent!

 

[Essexyellows]

If releasing OY achieves nothing why was the Johnson Govt so desperate not to release the documents?

For the reasons stated.

"We" (the NHS) have had to plan for all eventualities, now that ranges from "nothing changes, all is fine" through to "we`ve run out of XYZ and people are dying".

Release that to the general public and they will interpret it as they think fit.

The reality (from 2+ years of planning) is that, unless the EU blockade the ports, it will be 95%+ business as usual.

However that is not guaranteed because, like Parliament, we don`t have any clarity!

 

[Paul Cannell]

What does 'blockade the ports' mean?

 

[Essexyellows]

And locally Labour are trying to de-select our local MP for a more "Corbyn friendly" candidate...... https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/labour-leicester-west-mp-liz-3302996

I`m no lover of Labour but she is a pretty decent MP and respected locally for her work.

 

[Essexyellows]

What does 'blockade the ports' mean?

Intentional & unnecessary delays ..... the planning says they won`t but it is a possibility.

'No problem' at Calais under no-deal Brexit, says French official

'If both sides do their homework, traffic will be completely fluid,' says the man in charge of Calais

inews.co.uk

 

[Paul Cannell]

So it means implement standard procedures for a third nation.

In which case the UK government expects the flow could drop to 40-60%: source Civil Service World.

"The government has predicted border delays even in its “reasonable best case” assessment of what could happen after a no-deal Brexit, according to the former official in charge of overseeing border contingency planning.

Karen Wheeler, who stepped down as director general for border coordination at HM Revenue and Customs in June, told a committee of MPs the government had estimated that after a no-deal Brexit the “flow rate” of trucks exporting goods to the EU via Calais could drop to 40-60%. She said assessment, part of the government’s Operation Yellowhammer contingency planning, represented the “reasonable worst case scenario” – an outcome that is unlikely but “stands a significant chance of happening”.

In the reasonable best case scenario, the flow rate could be as high as 70-80% of current levels, she said. “But even in those circumstances, which seem just as unlikely as a reasonable worst case, you would still get delays,” she said."

 

[Sarge]

facts , not assumptions ... the law regarding the 2016 referendum ....

 

[Sarge]

One 'explanation' doing the rounds currently:-

If someone offered you the greatest sex of your life, mind blowing..you'd never be the same again...
and you said yes....


Great it's with your mother...

What? No thanks..I don't want that...

Nope, you said yes, you have to do it...



Brexit !

 

[Sarge]

 

[Marked Ox]

For the reasons stated.

"We" (the NHS) have had to plan for all eventualities, now that ranges from "nothing changes, all is fine" through to "we`ve run out of XYZ and people are dying".

Release that to the general public and they will interpret it as they think fit.

The reality (from 2+ years of planning) is that, unless the EU blockade the ports, it will be 95%+ business as usual.

However that is not guaranteed because, like Parliament, we don`t have any clarity!

By fighting not to release it, and therefore indicating there is someting to hide whether there is or isn't, as they have, if anything the Govt will have made interpretations worse in the media. The Govt could release the preparations being made alongside OY and if it isn't as bad at least the Govt would be being transparent. This smacks of David Davis and his dossier on British industry except there actually appears to be a report.

 

[tonyw]

And locally Labour are trying to de-select our local MP for a more "Corbyn friendly" candidate...... https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/labour-leicester-west-mp-liz-3302996

I`m no lover of Labour but she is a pretty decent MP and respected locally for her work.

I've seen a couple of places where this is happening - believe that Labour changed their regulations recently to make de-selection easier.

On top of that, it sounds like they're not actually going to take a stance on Leave vs. Remain in their upcoming election manifesto - rather just state their support for a second referendum.

It's not been nearly as loud and dramatic as the Tories, but Labour have fractured and imploded to every bit the same extent. At a time when they ought to be walking into power, they're in danger of being battered at any upcoming GE.


Honestly, if we do have a November/December election, you really do feel as if we could experience a redrawing of the electoral map that's more dramatic than anything we've seen in our lifetimes. If the Remain/Leave sides do engineer non-aggression pacts, then the Tories could end up losing seats to the Lib Dems in London that they've held for decades, and Labour could lose seats to the Brexit Party in their heartlands that they've held for generations.

Here's hoping, because both major parties deserve the mother of all kickings.

 

[Marked Ox]

I've seen a couple of places where this is happening - believe that Labour changed their regulations recently to make de-selection easier.

On top of that, it sounds like they're not actually going to take a stance on Leave vs. Remain in their upcoming election manifesto - rather just state their support for a second referendum.

It's not been nearly as loud and dramatic as the Tories, but Labour have fractured and imploded to every bit the same extent. At a time when they ought to be walking into power, they're in danger of being battered at any upcoming GE.


Honestly, if we do have a November/December election, you really do feel as if we could experience a redrawing of the electoral map that's more dramatic than anything we've seen in our lifetimes. If the Remain/Leave sides do engineer non-aggression pacts, then the Tories could end up losing seats to the Lib Dems in London that they've held for decades, and Labour could lose seats to the Brexit Party in their heartlands that they've held for generations.

Here's hoping, because both major parties deserve the mother of all kickings.

Both the main parties have been taken over to the extent that neither are 'broadchurches' anymore which is a bit sad considering both of their respective histories.

Hopefully in the long term it is actually a good thing as you say. A wider spread of parties and a reform of the FPTP system would be a very good thing imo.

 

[Peterdev]

Couldn’t agree more.
Get rid of the first past the post.
Unfortunately it won’t happen as the referendum held before stopped it.
Perhaps another referendum on it as opinions change..like in Scotland

 

[tonyw]

One thing I've always wondered - I've heard very few people ever say that they think FPTP is a fair and effective system for electing MPs. I've heard a lot of people who believe that PR is a much more sensible system.

So who was so excited by FPTP that they decided to go out and vote in its favor at the AV referendum? It must have been a lot of people because they won 75% of the vote!

 

[m]

One thing I've always wondered - I've heard very few people ever say that they think FPTP is a fair and effective system for electing MPs. I've heard a lot of people who believe that PR is a much more sensible system.

So who was so excited by FPTP that they decided to go out and vote in its favor at the AV referendum? It must have been a lot of people because they won 75% of the vote!

To be fair I think only four people voted.
Although it didn't affect the result both Clegg and Cameron accidentally ticked 'the wrong' box.

 

[Essexyellows]

So it means implement standard procedures for a third nation.

In which case the UK government expects the flow could drop to 40-60%: source Civil Service World.

"The government has predicted border delays even in its “reasonable best case” assessment of what could happen after a no-deal Brexit, according to the former official in charge of overseeing border contingency planning.

Karen Wheeler, who stepped down as director general for border coordination at HM Revenue and Customs in June, told a committee of MPs the government had estimated that after a no-deal Brexit the “flow rate” of trucks exporting goods to the EU via Calais could drop to 40-60%. She said assessment, part of the government’s Operation Yellowhammer contingency planning, represented the “reasonable worst case scenario” – an outcome that is unlikely but “stands a significant chance of happening”.

In the reasonable best case scenario, the flow rate could be as high as 70-80% of current levels, she said. “But even in those circumstances, which seem just as unlikely as a reasonable worst case, you would still get delays,” she said."

That is perfect public sector wording. Every part of the highlighted bit contradicts itself!
I don`t doubt there will be some initial delays but once large companies start ringing Government ministers (either side of the border) those issues will disappear PDQ.


At least there is a modicum of agreement across this forum that politic`s is "broken" and the traditional parties deserve a bit of a kicking!!

One thing I've always wondered - I've heard very few people ever say that they think FPTP is a fair and effective system for electing MPs. I've heard a lot of people who believe that PR is a much more sensible system.

So who was so excited by FPTP that they decided to go out and vote in its favor at the AV referendum? It must have been a lot of people because they won 75% of the vote!

I voted for FPTP because AV isn`t PR.

Proper PR would mean, rather than the all-or-nothing approach of other systems, each area elects more than one representative.
The area can vary according to the system, ranging from a county (For an MP) or village (Councillor). This means that you have a team of MPs/Councillors that reflect the strength of the different political opinions in your area.

 

[YellowTaxi]

Cracking news about BMW.

 

[Paul Cannell]

That is perfect public sector wording. Every part of the highlighted bit contradicts itself!
I don`t doubt there will be some initial delays but once large companies start ringing Government ministers (either side of the border) those issues will disappear PDQ.

At least there is a modicum of agreement across this forum that politic`s is "broken" and the traditional parties deserve a bit of a kicking!!

As usual your grasp of the English language is debatable; you fail (or pretend to fail) to understand a perfect definition of how to construct a worst-case model. Didn't fancy addressing the nub of the article, then.

Your faith in business is touching, do you really think a minister in the UK or in Europe will be able to turn a switch and fix any problems overnight? Let's not consider the effect on people who need time-dependent medicines, or on those in work who are unable to afford to feed, clothe, transport and heat themselves after the prices rise as a 'result of difficult trading conditions' that will be claimed by your friends the 'large companies'.

 

[Oxymoron]

But the view from those on the ground .......

 

[Sheik djibouti]

Hmmm, was thinking the same in terms of what reasonable worsts case scenario actually means. Simple interpretation is that it might not happen,but there is a significant chance it could. That chance is as significant as the best case scenario coming true.

So in terms of flow rate, all the modelling for no deal says at worst there will be a 60% REDUCTION in flow rate and at best a 20% REDUCTION in flow rate.

Most likely? - somewhere in between...so let's pick half way as neither scenario is more likely than the other and say a 40% reduction in flow.

In terms of timescale - best case a few days, worst case 6 months or longer (assuming the issues can be resolved). Again - lets pick a middle of the road figure - say 3 months.

So 40% reduction for 3 months seems a reasonable (if simplistic) assumption.

Anybody particularly comfortable with that?

Will it push a fragile economy into recession (both domestic and/or EU) and how will we recover from it with very little chance of a quick trade deal with the EU, whilst Boris continues to wave £39 billion under the noses of the commission as some kind of threat...not the best start or continued negotiation strategy. But then again, I assume it's all part of The Dom's master plan.....51st state, here we come...yeehaaaa!