International News US Election YF Vote/Prediction

Who will win the US Election on Tuesday?

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 25 46.3%

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 29 53.7%
  • Total voters
    54
  • Poll closed .
Marked Ox said:
The immediate polls I saw about the situation, a majority of Republicans supported what happened! Admittedly not big numbers in the polls.

Who will the non Trumpers (laughably including Lindsay Graham) coalesce and organise around? There doesn't seem a stand out, albeit my knowledge may be lacking. They really will need to organise as Trump has already got his base.
Click to expand...

The numbers I saw suggested that 40-45% of Republicans supported what happened. Which is a shockingly high number, but not a majority.

Which again I think means that we're going to see one hell of a barny for the soul of the Republican party - first with the Congressional elections in 2022, and then particularly with the Republican primaries in 2024.

I don't think the establishment will coalesce around anyone in advance - but I do believe that they will be more disciplined than they were in 2016 (when Rubio, Cruz & Kasich were all still going and splitting the anti-Trump vote past Super Tuesday II) , and coalesce around someone to oppose whoever the MAGA candidate will be within the first few states.

The Democrats provided the model this year. Their establishment was terrified about Bernie; they let the first few states play out but when Biden won big in South Carolina, that confirmed that he was their guy and they threw everything behind him.

As to who? Too early to say, but could be someone like Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio, or Tim Scott. Maybe Pence himself.
If the MAGA candidate isn't a Trump, then could be Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis or Kristi Noem.

There's plenty of possibles and they're going to be ranting, raving and stabbing each other in the back for the next four years!
 
OUFCGav said:
that sounds positively good compared to this line in Ohio
Click to expand...

Ha ha! Well, a lot of people actually do use the train in New Jersey!

I once needed to travel from Pittsburgh to D.C. (about 250 miles, so roughly the distance from Oxford to Newcastle) - and I actually enjoy traveling by train, and hate flying, so I thought I'd investigate making the journey by rail.

But when I eventually spoke to someone at Amtrak (the national train company), they told me that there was only one train a day that took that route, it came through Pittsburgh at 3am, but if it was running late (and it usually was), it didn't bother to stop!

Which I think tells you all you need to know about train travel in the US, outside of commuter lines into the big cities........
 
tonyw said:
As to who? Too early to say, but could be someone like Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio, or Tim Scott. Maybe Pence himself.
If the MAGA candidate isn't a Trump, then could be Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis or Kristi Noem.

There's plenty of possibles and they're going to be ranting, raving and stabbing each other in the back for the next four years!
Click to expand...
Pence is history -
Pro-Trump camp will accuse him of failing to stop the Senate vote when Trump said he should (even though he couldn't even if he'd wanted to)
Anti-Trump camp will forever have him linked with Trump and complicit with the last four years..
 
Concretebob said:
Trump says he's not going to the inauguration now. Toys well and truly out the pram.
Click to expand...
reminds me of when I was a youngster... ( way back in the flickering black n white days) .... playing football, well , having a bit of a kick about truth be told, jumpers for goalposts and all that, there was this scottish kid who had a 'proper' leather football, who 'allowed'us other scruffy urchins to play football with it- thing was he was a bit rubbish,, needless to say his team-mates rarely passed the ball to him, it invariably would reach a point ( most nights) when he'd pick the ball up in a huff, and head home, muttering words along the lines of 'its my ball you all cant play ' ...... wonder if that Scottish kid was a distant relative of the outgoing US President ? :unsure: :rolleyes: ;)
 
I think Chuck Schumer made an excellent point regarding impeachment earlier: quite apart from the politics of it, if losing an election and subsequently encouraging your supporters to violently storm the Capitol in protest, which they duly do, leading to five deaths (as it stands) isn't a level of conduct that is impeachable... quite simply, what is?
 
ttg17 said:
I think Chuck Schumer made an excellent point regarding impeachment earlier: quite apart from the politics of it, if losing an election and subsequently encouraging your supporters to violently storm the Capitol in protest, which they duly do, leading to five deaths (as it stands) isn't a level of conduct that is impeachable... quite simply, what is?
Click to expand...
He should be, maybe that should suffice
In preventing him running again in 4 years.
 
ttg17 said:
I think Chuck Schumer made an excellent point regarding impeachment earlier: quite apart from the politics of it, if losing an election and subsequently encouraging your supporters to violently storm the Capitol in protest, which they duly do, leading to five deaths (as it stands) isn't a level of conduct that is impeachable... quite simply, what is?
Click to expand...

Thing is - there's several steps to being removed from office via Impeachment.

First a committee within the House of Representatives needs to be convinced there is a case to answer; then the House needs to vote and a simple majority needs to vote in favor of impeachment. If that happens (as it did previously for Trump), then a Senate trial has to be convened - with both sides able to make their case and bring witnesses - following which two-thirds of all Senators need to vote in favor of removal (they can then disqualify the individual from holding future office with another majority vote).

The House would certainly do it, but the Democrats who have discussed it have said that fast-tracking the process means they could probably get their part done by the end of next week.

And then you've got to hold the Senate trial, starting on Monday 18th at the very earliest - and Trump's first impeachment trial took two weeks and six days! In short, you can't get it done before Trump leaves office anyway a week on Thursday.


So what will probably happen is that the Democrats in the House do rush through an impeachment before Trump leaves office, but the clock runs out before a trial can happen, meaning that all it really is is another piece of political theatre and a slap on the wrist that the orange one doesn't give a damn about.

Frankly, I'd rather they started working on crafting legislation - given the way US politics works, the high probability that they will lose either the House or the Senate (or both) in 2022, and the length of political campaigns over here, they have about 18 months starting on January 20th to take advantage of holding all branches of power, so if they want to change anything, they need to get to work.
 
tonyw said:
The numbers I saw suggested that 40-45% of Republicans supported what happened. Which is a shockingly high number, but not a majority.

Which again I think means that we're going to see one hell of a barny for the soul of the Republican party - first with the Congressional elections in 2022, and then particularly with the Republican primaries in 2024.

I don't think the establishment will coalesce around anyone in advance - but I do believe that they will be more disciplined than they were in 2016 (when Rubio, Cruz & Kasich were all still going and splitting the anti-Trump vote past Super Tuesday II) , and coalesce around someone to oppose whoever the MAGA candidate will be within the first few states.

The Democrats provided the model this year. Their establishment was terrified about Bernie; they let the first few states play out but when Biden won big in South Carolina, that confirmed that he was their guy and they threw everything behind him.

As to who? Too early to say, but could be someone like Nikki Haley, or Marco Rubio, or Tim Scott. Maybe Pence himself.
If the MAGA candidate isn't a Trump, then could be Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis or Kristi Noem.

There's plenty of possibles and they're going to be ranting, raving and stabbing each other in the back for the next four years!
Click to expand...
Whats the view on whether a Trump has any chance of being the Republican candidate at the next election?
Presumably this weeks events have made this less likely?
 
tonyw said:
Thing is - there's several steps to being removed from office via Impeachment.

First a committee within the House of Representatives needs to be convinced there is a case to answer; then the House needs to vote and a simple majority needs to vote in favor of impeachment. If that happens (as it did previously for Trump), then a Senate trial has to be convened - with both sides able to make their case and bring witnesses - following which two-thirds of all Senators need to vote in favor of removal (they can then disqualify the individual from holding future office with another majority vote).

The House would certainly do it, but the Democrats who have discussed it have said that fast-tracking the process means they could probably get their part done by the end of next week.

And then you've got to hold the Senate trial, starting on Monday 18th at the very earliest - and Trump's first impeachment trial took two weeks and six days! In short, you can't get it done before Trump leaves office anyway a week on Thursday.


So what will probably happen is that the Democrats in the House do rush through an impeachment before Trump leaves office, but the clock runs out before a trial can happen, meaning that all it really is is another piece of political theatre and a slap on the wrist that the orange one doesn't give a damn about.

Frankly, I'd rather they started working on crafting legislation - given the way US politics works, the high probability that they will lose either the House or the Senate (or both) in 2022, and the length of political campaigns over here, they have about 18 months starting on January 20th to take advantage of holding all branches of power, so if they want to change anything, they need to get to work.
Click to expand...
Interesting, thanks.

Is there no way the process could be expedited? Given the extraordinary circumstances? I wouldn't have thought it's as if a compelling case needs to be drawn up and made, or even that a sufficient majority in either house need to be convinced of the merits of the case.

Also, I think you've implied it, but just for clarity - does the president need to be sitting for impeachment to occur? If a consequence is that the person can never run for office again, and Trump still conceivably could, could the trial not run into Biden's administration and still take effect, even symbolically?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Essexyellows
  • Poll
National News Election - Winter of Content?
2 3
Replies
54
Views
6K
werthersoriginal
W
Gary Baldi
National News Official 2019 General Election Thread
99 100 101
Replies
2K
Views
148K
Gary Baldi
Gary Baldi
Peterdev
By election Peterborough
3 4 5
Replies
82
Views
11K
Essexyellows
Essexyellows
Sarge
National News royal mail workers landslide strike vote
Replies
4
Views
2K
Whingit
Whingit
gofish2
  • Poll
How will you vote on Thursday?
11 12 13
Replies
249
Views
27K
Sharp Edges
S
Back
Top Bottom