Manager/Coach KREXIT: The 'Robbo Out' thread.

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SteMerritt said:
Sorry, that's just not the case. Depending on your definition of 'prolonged period of time', if you go way back into the mists of time (March this year), you won't have found many in the fanbase having that point of view, let alone a 'vast majority'.

Obviously there are serious issues at the moment, and things have been building in a negative direction, but revisionism like that doesn't add anything to the discussion.
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Yes there are a lot of ‘Captain hindsights’ around at the moment.
 
Lundinsponytail said:
That is spot on.
To work out the meaning of sub-par, one has to first define 'par' .
For the last few years, 'par' for a club of OUFC's type has been mid-table L1. By type, I mean middling crowds, a bit of owner support and a decent, stable recruitment team. There are clubs of similar type (Luton and Posh, say) who have done better. And there are clubs (Bradford, Swindon) who have done worse.
For much of his time at OUFC Robbo has achieved a bit better than par. And over the course of 2022 he has been sub-par.
That in itself should not be cause for castigation. He is only one decent 3 game run away from getting back to par.
The concern is that there are few signs that he understands what has caused protracted sub-par performances. Whether it be tactically, recruitment-wise he first repeats past mistakes and then garbles unintelligible nonsense/excuses instead of providing smart analysis.
He has (had) credit in the bank for 3 calendar years of slight over-achievement. That credit has brought considerable patience over a pretty dire 2022. But the credit doesnt last for ever, even at a club with a strong history of sticking by managers.
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A case of stats proving stats, or trying to dig robinson out of a chasm? Another way of looking at is that par on a budget he's had this year would be minimum play offs, and better, with a squad recruited in the Plymouth model, ie. bringing in players either to plug holes or to improve certain areas, robinson has done neither and a play off place or better looks laughable at the moment, with a bunch of crocs returning over the next 5 weeks.
Recruitment hasn't been much better in previous windows, with robinson failing to address things even he has pointed out. For example, after the Blackpool embarrassment more physical players.
So with little if any progress made over the last four years we reach a point where we are a place or so outside the relegation zone with almost a quarter of the season gone. A 3 game winning run would simply paper over 4 years of cracks.
When a club gets as stale as Oxford at the moment, most clubs would have seen the writing on the wall months ago, and changed manager. The board still have a window in which to do this, to allow our new manager time to survey the squad before the first window.
 
SteMerritt said:
Sorry, that's just not the case. Depending on your definition of 'prolonged period of time', if you go way back into the mists of time (March this year), you won't have found many in the fanbase having that point of view, let alone a 'vast majority'.

Obviously there are serious issues at the moment, and things have been building in a negative direction, but revisionism like that doesn't add anything to the discussion.
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How many of the 9 transfer windows that Robinson has had, would you say have been overwhelmingly successful?

A few snippets to throw out there, just off the top of my head:

- Rob Hall new contract
- James Henry new contract at 33yo
- Simon Eastwood new 3 year contract
- Marcus Browne signed when injured and then flogged away at Pompey (how’d he pass a medical??)
- Jodi Jones
- Failure to recruit adequate full backs and/or cover in that position on multiple occasions
- Post Blackpool failure to recruit exactly what he said we needed in his post match presser
- Jack Stevens fall out this summer
- Jamie Hanson signed a 4 year contract after 48 games in 5 years, oh he had an injury when he signed too! (How’d he pass the medical?)
- Joel Cooper signed with promise but left completely shot to pieces
- Sam Baldock - just 7 appearances to date for OUFC

Performance on the pitch has been largely ok during his tenure and at times, we have been scintillating. That said, we are now regressing and some of the points listed above demonstrate a complete lack of cohesive management. Was there anyone anywhere that thought Rob Hall deserved a new contract or that Sam Baldock would stay injury free given his past record?

It’s not just results that make up a managers performance (although a few good ones would help!) and right now, Robinson is bringing the club into disrepute as a result of his error strewn performance away from the touch line in the transfer market. Arguably, it’s his biggest demise since joining us.
 
ECYellow said:
How many of the 9 transfer windows that Robinson has had, would you say have been overwhelmingly successful?

A few snippets to throw out there, just off the top of my head:

- Rob Hall new contract
- James Henry new contract at 33yo
- Simon Eastwood new 3 year contract
- Marcus Browne signed when injured and then flogged away at Pompey (how’d he pass a medical??)
- Jodi Jones
- Failure to recruit adequate full backs and/or cover in that position on multiple occasions
- Post Blackpool failure to recruit exactly what he said we needed in his post match presser
- Jack Stevens fall out this summer
- Jamie Hanson signed a 4 year contract after 48 games in 5 years, oh he had an injury when he signed too! (How’d he pass the medical?)
- Joel Cooper signed with promise but left completely shot to pieces
- Sam Baldock - just 7 appearances to date for OUFC

Performance on the pitch has been largely ok during his tenure and at times, we have been scintillating. That said, we are now regressing and some of the points listed above demonstrate a complete lack of cohesive management. Was there anyone anywhere that thought Rob Hall deserved a new contract or that Sam Baldock would stay injury free given his past record?

It’s not just results that make up a managers performance (although a few good ones would help!) and right now, Robinson is bringing the club into disrepute as a result of his error strewn performance away from the touch line in the transfer market. Arguably, it’s his biggest demise since joining us.
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None of that supports your assertion that there has been widespread dissatisfaction with KR for a prolonged period of time, which is what you suggested. And as I stated, that viewpoint just doesn't stack up when you look closer at it.

Luckily for us, Oxblogger does a survey of the fanbase every year and tracks trends. One of the categories is manager performance. You can look at the whole post HERE, but the highlights regarding managerial performance...

1664180841959.png

1664180872252.png

The last survey was done in the summer. You can see there is pretty widespread support over time for the manager, although hints that things were beginning to slide. KR has constantly averaged above 8 out of 10.

By all means bring up your points, most of which are completely valid. But suggesting the wider fanbase has been worried for a long time is wide of the mark.
 
Mellowyellow said:
A case of stats proving stats, or trying to dig robinson out of a chasm? Another way of looking at is that par on a budget he's had this year would be minimum play offs, and better, with a squad recruited in the Plymouth model, ie. bringing in players either to plug holes or to improve certain areas, robinson has done neither and a play off place or better looks laughable at the moment, with a bunch of crocs returning over the next 5 weeks.
Recruitment hasn't been much better in previous windows, with robinson failing to address things even he has pointed out. For example, after the Blackpool embarrassment more physical players.
So with little if any progress made over the last four years we reach a point where we are a place or so outside the relegation zone with almost a quarter of the season gone. A 3 game winning run would simply paper over 4 years of cracks.
When a club gets as stale as Oxford at the moment, most clubs would have seen the writing on the wall months ago, and changed manager. The board still have a window in which to do this, to allow our new manager time to survey the squad before the first window.
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I think we are violently agreeing. SteMerritt was just pointing out (with me seconding) that it would have been far from obvious back in Feb, when we were still in the top 7, that a change of manager was either obvious or likely.
Since then, we have demonstrated relegation form over a near 30 match period..... such that now most club Boards who have provided a top 7 budget would indeed be making the move.
Our point of disagreement is whether it would have been appropriate or fair to fire a manager for finishing 8th with a budget about 8th biggest in the league. I think that would have been harsh - maybe visionary but harsh - whereas you think it was an obvious and straightforward move.
As for the here and now, the club cannot afford to get into a relegation battle we are ill-equipped for. So if we are still within 5 points of the relegation zone come late October then, yes, I'd be for pressing the ejector button.
 
This season hasn’t been what any of us expected.
Last season in the 2nd half of the season there were posters on here drumming extra support and hats of to them.
However this season so far with the performances we’ve seen and our position in the league I fear we won’t get to that magical figure of 10k. This surely would have the board worrying and with an announcement being made regarding the ownership very soon it may mean something positive will happen regarding the position of the club.
 
SteMerritt said:
None of that supports your assertion that there has been widespread dissatisfaction with KR for a prolonged period of time, which is what you suggested. And as I stated, that viewpoint just doesn't stack up when you look closer at it.

Luckily for us, Oxblogger does a survey of the fanbase every year and tracks trends. One of the categories is manager performance. You can look at the whole post HERE, but the highlights regarding managerial performance...

View attachment 10309

View attachment 10310

The last survey was done in the summer. You can see there is pretty widespread support over time for the manager, although hints that things were beginning to slide. KR has constantly averaged above 8 out of 10.

By all means bring up your points, most of which are completely valid. But suggesting the wider fanbase has been worried for a long time is wide of the mark.
Click to expand...

Prolonged period > this calendar year is what I was getting at. I’d say that based on the life span of a football manager in the modern era, 10 months is a pretty prolonged period of time.

Since the turn of the year, a vast number of supporters that I engage with have been concerned with the form and performance of the manager. This has been amplified since March where frankly, our form has fallen away quite spectacularly.

Look back to the January window to get a glimpse into the future. Rumours were a foot that we missed out on a number of targets and our ‘marquee’ signing was Marcus Browne who came in injured and was “one for next season” according to KR.

At the end of Jan you could argue we were perhaps as good as we were on 01/01/22 but even the most ardent fan would struggle to argue we were any better for the run in, and so it proved.

Fast forward to now and are we any better than we was this time last year? I’d love the most ardent supporter to come on and tell me we are…if not, that represents a regression.
 
ECYellow said:
Prolonged period > this calendar year is what I was getting at. I’d say that based on the life span of a football manager in the modern era, 10 months is a pretty prolonged period of time.

Since the turn of the year, a vast number of supporters that I engage with have been concerned with the form and performance of the manager. This has been amplified since March where frankly, our form has fallen away quite spectacularly.

Look back to the January window to get a glimpse into the future. Rumours were a foot that we missed out on a number of targets and our ‘marquee’ signing was Marcus Browne who came in injured and was “one for next season” according to KR.

At the end of Jan you could argue we were perhaps as good as we were on 01/01/22 but even the most ardent fan would struggle to argue we were any better for the run in, and so it proved.

Fast forward to now and are we any better than we was this time last year? I’d love the most ardent supporter to come on and tell me we are…if not, that represents a regression.
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No arguments from me that we have regressed, and by quite a margin. But the wider fanbase is a lot more conservative as you can see from the survey results in the summer.
 
SteMerritt said:
No arguments from me that we have regressed, and by quite a margin. But the wider fanbase is a lot more conservative as you can see from the survey results in the summer.
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I’ve never seen these surveys. I’d love to know exactly what proportion of the fan base receive these. It’s not something I’ve ever noticed in the public domain.
 
ECYellow said:
I’ve never seen these surveys. I’d love to know exactly what proportion of the fan base receive these. It’s not something I’ve ever noticed in the public domain.
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It's not an official thing. If you don't read OxBlogger's page, worth doing for an alternative take on things.

oxblogger.co.uk

Oxblogger

A blog about Oxford united
oxblogger.co.uk oxblogger.co.uk
 
SteMerritt said:
None of that supports your assertion that there has been widespread dissatisfaction with KR for a prolonged period of time, which is what you suggested. And as I stated, that viewpoint just doesn't stack up when you look closer at it.

Luckily for us, Oxblogger does a survey of the fanbase every year and tracks trends. One of the categories is manager performance. You can look at the whole post HERE, but the highlights regarding managerial performance...

View attachment 10309

View attachment 10310

The last survey was done in the summer. You can see there is pretty widespread support over time for the manager, although hints that things were beginning to slide. KR has constantly averaged above 8 out of 10.

By all means bring up your points, most of which are completely valid. But suggesting the wider fanbase has been worried for a long time is wide of the mark.
Click to expand...
Lots of pretty pictures and pronouncements of good times and confidence in the manager, team, board etc. but, where is the context? Where is the breakdown of numbers? How many responded to this survey? I know for a fact that I didn't nor did Mrs Lounger or any of those supporters we meet at games. My mind was made up about KR at least 2 seasons ago, possibly even 3. He might have had an outside chance of repeating season 2 and taken us to Wembley again but would he keep us in the Championship? No chance.
Here we are, again lamenting a poor transfer window. The ninth window under KR. Another poor start to a season. This time with the added insult of a budget to make other teams weep with frustration and yet, our illustrious manager fails to land even a full squad let alone a full and balanced team.

I'm sorry but pretty pictures are not going to do it for me. I just don't buy that survey as anywhere near representative of the fan base. It's not even representative of the Forum.
 
Manorlounger said:
Lots of pretty pictures and pronouncements of good times and confidence in the manager, team, board etc. but, where is the context? Where is the breakdown of numbers? How many responded to this survey? I know for a fact that I didn't nor did Mrs Lounger or any of those supporters we meet at games. My mind was made up about KR at least 2 seasons ago, possibly even 3. He might have had an outside chance of repeating season 2 and taken us to Wembley again but would he keep us in the Championship? No chance.
Here we are, again lamenting a poor transfer window. The ninth window under KR. Another poor start to a season. This time with the added insult of a budget to make other teams weep with frustration and yet, our illustrious manager fails to land even a full squad let alone a full and balanced team.

I'm sorry but pretty pictures are not going to do it for me. I just don't buy that survey as anywhere near representative of the fan base. It's not even representative of the Forum.
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...which is fair enough, you are in the group of forum users that post opinions that I take notice of, and I take your points. I'm not going to sit here and defend what is going on at our club currently because I'm certainly not happy with things. But just because you sit with a load of people at the game who are thinking one way or the other, it doesn't translate into a 'vast majority' (apologies to @ECYellow for using that quote again), which I've seen little evidence of up until now. The survey was posted purely because it's the only one I know of that is trying to track any sort of trends. It will be a small sample size for sure, and would be a smaller size than we have on here at a guess. No idea about the cross-section it represents.

On here, I think to say there was widespread unhappiness with KR 6 months ago would be wide of the mark. There have been grumblings for a while without doubt, and they have been getting louder over the last year for sure, I'd go along with @ECYellow's inference that the Blackpool Play-off defeat started a minor mood change, which gathered pace since and accelerated from the end of March when the wheels fell off. I don't believe any tipping point with KRs popularity rating happened until the end of August however.

Perhaps the forum should steal Oxblogger's idea and do our own survey to track trends over time, maybe end of January transfer window and end of season. Any of the resident number crunchers fancy taking on the task?
 
SteMerritt said:
...which is fair enough, you are in the group of forum users that post opinions that I take notice of, and I take your points. I'm not going to sit here and defend what is going on at our club currently because I'm certainly not happy with things. But just because you sit with a load of people at the game who are thinking one way or the other, it doesn't translate into a 'vast majority' (apologies to @ECYellow for using that quote again), which I've seen little evidence of up until now. The survey was posted purely because it's the only one I know of that is trying to track any sort of trends. It will be a small sample size for sure, and would be a smaller size than we have on here at a guess. No idea about the cross-section it represents.

On here, I think to say there was widespread unhappiness with KR 6 months ago would be wide of the mark. There have been grumblings for a while without doubt, and they have been getting louder over the last year for sure, I'd go along with @ECYellow's inference that the Blackpool Play-off defeat started a minor mood change, which gathered pace since and accelerated from the end of March when the wheels fell off. I don't believe any tipping point with KRs popularity rating happened until the end of August however.

Perhaps the forum should steal Oxblogger's idea and do our own survey to track trends over time, maybe end of January transfer window and end of season. Any of the resident number crunchers fancy taking on the task?
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Doesn't really matter what a bunch of internet wonks think anyway! The mood in the stadium generally seems positive to me (SSL) though surely that would change if we lost to shitty Wycombe.
 
bazzer9461 said:
This season hasn’t been what any of us expected.
Last season in the 2nd half of the season there were posters on here drumming extra support and hats of to them.
However this season so far with the performances we’ve seen and our position in the league I fear we won’t get to that magical figure of 10k. This surely would have the board worrying and with an announcement being made regarding the ownership very soon it may mean something positive will happen regarding the position of the club.
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if they're worried serves them right

How did they thank those who rallied to the call towards the end of the season to help achieve those 10k figures?

You ain't getting season tickets at the Discounted Rates, you can jolly well wait until "Full Price" applies.

Right there they ballsed up everything that was needed to engage with the fans, not just in the Summer but going forward.

Cannot just hope the Cup brings your Man City's etc.

so many Owners have failed with the Rinse them now attitude.
 
Lundinsponytail said:
He is only one decent 3 game run away from getting back to par.
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I think that's being very generous.

If (and it’s a big if) we were to win the next 3 we’d be on 19 points after 12 games – which probably gets you top half and within striking distance of the play-offs (I’d wager probably 8th or 9th). However, I’d argue that’s still not par - which goes to show how far off the mark we currently are (and that’s before you factor in that at that point (using todays table) we’ll have played just 2 of the top 9 and all of the bottom 9 bar FGR).

By my reckoning, factoring in the relative strength of opposition - par NOW (after 9 games) would be about 19 points and after the next 3 (12 games) would be 24 points. So clearly not do-able to get back to par that quickly.

The next 3 games after that (Posh home, Pompey away, Bolton away) are clearly tougher and I think even just 2 points from those 3 games would be par – meaning that par at that point (15 games) would be 26 points - which is (mathematically at least) do-able.

So all in all, 16 points from the next 6 games gets us back to par by the end of the month. That’s 5 wins and 1 draw in October - from 4 away games and 2 at home (stop sniggering). I’m not for a second suggesting that we’ll get anywhere near that – but IMHO that gets us back to par at that point, nothing less.

Again, it shows just how far adrift we are from what we could have reasonably called par for the course - and that doesn't even account for (dare I say it) the possibility of out-performing expectations (which would have been mixing it with Ipswich and Wednesday - as we are seeing from Plymouth and Pompey).

Big, big month coming up.
 
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