Matches The League One run in

[bazzer9461]

Lambert will get a nice payoff considering he signed a new 5 year contract at Christmas.

And the Ipswich fans do not like Lambert

 

[Robie]

 

[werthersoriginal]

The Ipswich season ticket holder I work with, said that their owner has really tightened the purse strings. With this in mind, I'm not sure they can afford to bin off Lambert with his long term contract in place. Even if he does go, it doesn't sound like a very attractive proposition for a manager with promotion ambitions.

I can see Karl at Luton, if they start next season badly

 

[Foley]

I can see Karl at Luton, if they start next season badly

If he is going to go he needs to go at the end of the season.
Getting your players in, doing the pre season and disappearing is not right.
Also Tiger has shown that he isnt a push over when Blackpool came calling.
So if KR wants to leave he should do so at the end of the season.

 

[York-Yellow]

I hate to say it (as I can't stand their owner, manager, and how they've gone about their business in general) but I'm convinced Fleetwood have a massive shout at the auto places. They're unbeaten since mid-January, and have proven their ability to mix it up with the promotion hopefuls in the league. Their current run includes:

Fleetwood 0-0 Coventry
Fleetwood 2-1 Doncaster
Wycombe 0-1 Fleetwood
Fleetwood 2-1 P'boro
Fleetwood 1-0 Pompey
Sunderland 1-1 Fleetwood (F'wood were winning until the 97th minute..!)
Ipswich 0-1 Fleetwood

As per the original post, of the 'big hitters' they've got us (a), Pompey (a), and Rotherham (h) remaining, and potentially an unpredictable fixture away at Gillingham, but they have a nice run of very winnable (on paper) games.

----

Back to minding our own business - yes, every game is huge, but I think the next two (Shrews + MK Dons) are absolutely massive to release a bit of pressure going into the Wycombe and Pompey games. You could argue that 3 of the last 4 have been 'must win', and we dealt with the pressure well, so let's hope that continues!

I'm going to try one of those predictor things now. I'm not going to enjoy it.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

As the Southend game showed on Saturday.

What did the AFC Wimbledon game show?

 

[York-Yellow]

Also, here's another predictor engine that was doing the rounds earlier in the season (there are links to explain how it's all calculated in there). Click the drop down (beneath the table) and see where we were at Jan 1....

Noticed for the end of season prediction it has us on one point less than what @SwissYellow predicted. Quite a bit of movement around the playoff and auto positions though.

League One Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League One predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[York-Yellow]

Thought the predictor might be a laugh. It's not a laugh.

Looking at games as isolated fixtures and not being able to consider form leads to stupid predictions, but I can't be arsed to go back through it and make assumptions on form and risk potential for bottlejobs. I seem to think that P'boro, Pompey and Fleetwood won't lose a game in the run in based on the table below...!

Based on the last 5 seasons, the average points tally to make the playoffs (46 games) is 72, with 69 the lowest and 74 highest. Given the clusterf*ck that is League One this season, 74 might not be enough, even in a 44 game season. Crazy, eh.

Anyway, here's what I had for us:

Shrewsbury 1-1 Oxford
Oxford 2-0 MK
Wycombe 0-1 Oxford
Oxford 1-1 Pompey
Rochdale 1-3 Oxford
Oxford 1-0 Bristol R
Coventry 2-1 Oxford
Oxford 1-1 Fleetwood
Tranmere 1-3 Oxford
Oxford 2-0 Bolton

 

[Scotchegg]

Thought the predictor might be a laugh. It's not a laugh.

Looking at games as isolated fixtures and not being able to consider form leads to stupid predictions, but I can't be arsed to go back through it and make assumptions on form and risk potential for bottlejobs. I seem to think that P'boro, Pompey and Fleetwood won't lose a game in the run in based on the table below...!

Based on the last 5 seasons, the average points tally to make the playoffs (46 games) is 72, with 69 the lowest and 74 highest. Given the clusterf*ck that is League One this season, 74 might not be enough, even in a 44 game season. Crazy, eh.

Anyway, here's what I had for us:

Shrewsbury 1-1 Oxford
Oxford 2-0 MK
Wycombe 0-1 Oxford
Oxford 1-1 Pompey
Rochdale 1-3 Oxford
Oxford 1-0 Bristol R
Coventry 2-1 Oxford
Oxford 1-1 Fleetwood
Tranmere 1-3 Oxford
Oxford 2-0 Bolton

View attachment 3044

I would say that there are some pretty wild predictions there which don't reflect anything we've seen at any stage of this season.

Peterborough getting 28 points and Wycombe 11 from the next 10 games?

 

[andystroud]

What did the AFC Wimbledon game show?

That on that particular day they weren’t very good

 

[York-Yellow]

I would say that there are some pretty wild predictions there which don't reflect anything we've seen at any stage of this season.

Peterborough getting 28 points and Wycombe 11 from the next 10 games?

That was the point I was trying to make. Looking at fixtures in isolation drew me in, and in most match ups I backed P'boro, whereas I think Wycombe are going to struggle to maintain a playoff push, and I see them struggling with several of their remaining games - they've got Burton (A), Oxford (H), Coventry (A), Shrewsbury (A), Rotherham (H) in their next 5, for example.

 

[Scotchegg]

That was the point I was trying to make. Looking at fixtures in isolation drew me in, and in most match ups I backed P'boro, whereas I think Wycombe are going to struggle to maintain a playoff push, and I see them struggling with several of their remaining games - they've got Burton (A), Oxford (H), Coventry (A), Shrewsbury (A), Rotherham (H) in their next 5, for example.

Fair enough. Generally we're not good at predicting draws, and there will be games where every club slips up. Bottom line is that I think we'll still be in the top 6 come May so I guess that's all that matters!

 

[MJB]

Am I the only person who just thinks about our next game?

All these predictions are complete finger in the air stuff. What if Dickie gets a two game suspension? What if Ruffels gets injured and we have no recognised LB? What if Coronavirus means all of our remaining games are played in front of no fans?

 

[Marked Ox]

Am I the only person who just thinks about our next game?

All these predictions are complete finger in the air stuff. What if Dickie gets a two game suspension? What if Ruffels gets injured and we have no recognised LB? What Coronavirus means all of our remaining games are played in front of no fans?

No you're not, that is my viewpoint as well.

 

[Shropshire U]

Predictions are always difficult at this stage of a season because the promotion and relegation stakes are more intense.
However, it really does look as if Southend, Bolton and Tranmere are nailed on certs for relegation, which means that there are several teams for whom the season is virtually over.
So will Shrewsbury, for example, play with greater relaxed freedom, or will they be half switched off (for my own bragging rights sake I'm hoping the latter)?
And there are random factors like the state of Tranmere's pitch (diabolical and not suited to our style of play).
There have been dismissive posts about Fleetwood. Yes, they are annoying upstarts but they are a good team this season. They looked very good in our game up there and it's surprising that it has taken them this long to show a sustained run of form.

 

[York-Yellow]

LEAGUE ONE: Run-ins for Oxford United and the rest of the promotion contenders

With most clubs in Sky Bet League One now having just ten games left, the promotion race is about to enter the final stretch.

www.oxfordmail.co.uk

 

[Sarge]

That was the point I was trying to make. Looking at fixtures in isolation drew me in, and in most match ups I backed P'boro, whereas I think Wycombe are going to struggle to maintain a playoff push, and I see them struggling with several of their remaining games - they've got Burton (A), Oxford (H), Coventry (A), Shrewsbury (A), Rotherham (H) in their next 5, for example.

Depends how all of Wycombe's opponents, the U's included cope with Ainsworth's anti football ......and the barrell on legs that is Akinfenwa

 

[oufc1991]

I don’t see the point in worrying about what other teams will do we just need to worry about ourselves who’s to say we don’t get 27 points or 30 or 21 from next 10 games aslong as we do our best we will be fine and come may we will be planning a trip to Wembley ( I hope that goes better than the last two times we been there ?)

 

[beyondthefourth]

LEAGUE ONE: Run-ins for Oxford United and the rest of the promotion contenders

With most clubs in Sky Bet League One now having just ten games left, the promotion race is about to enter the final stretch.

www.oxfordmail.co.uk

This image gives a decent indication that 70 points might not be enough.

 

[Oxymoron]

Still to play against a (current) top 10 side

Coventry [3]– Wycombe, Oxford, Peterborough (home), Ipswich (away)

Rotherham [5]– Portsmouth, Sunderland, Doncaster (home), Wycombe, Fleetwood (away)

Pompey [4]– Fleetwood, Doncaster (home), Rotherham, Oxford, Peterborough, Ipswich (away)

Wycombe [3] – Rotherham, Oxford (home), Coventry (away)

Sunderland [2] – Peterborough (home), Rotherham (away)

Fleetwood [2] – Rotherham (home), Portsmouth, Oxford, (away)

Oxford [4] – Portsmouth, Fleetwood (home), Coventry, Wycombe (away)

Peterboro [2] – Portsmouth (home), Coventry, Sunderland (away)

Ipswich [2] – Coventry, Portsmouth, (home), Doncaster (away)

Doncaster [3] – Ipswich (home), Rotherham, Portsmouth (away)

On the surface, Portsmouth and Rotherham have the hardest task but also the potential to do most damage to their immediate rivals but as we have to play the teams in 1st, 3rd, 4th & 6th, the same can be said about us. Gillingham in 11th also have to play 5 of the top 6 in their last 10 games and will surely take points from a couple.

Could well be that the Sunderland v Rotherham clash on the final day is going to be crucial for both teams - and missing an auto spot on the last day is going to affect your playoff mindset.

Edit: as results come in, Bold and strike through - 3 points, strike through - dropped points