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Jamie Mackie

Would happily have Sinclair...mackie playing a small part, youngster and one other.

The mobility of Sinclair has been so important...plus has been clinical.

I wasn’t impressed with Sinclair on Saturday. He looked lethargic and not on his game – however, he absolutely nailed his finish.

Sinclair scored from a chance that that Mackie never could make for himself as he’s just not quick enough to do it. Mackie charged around, causing all sorts of bother, drawing fouls, being a sh*those and knocking defenders around aplenty which Sinclair could never do. It’s working as a tandem at present. Mackie knocks them about, Sinclair runs at tiring defenders to worry them further.

Whilst we’re enjoying it all now the pressure is off, is this a frontline we truly want for next season? Personally, I’d still want a bit more from the strikers. More goals from scrambles, set pieces, tap ins from crosses and the like. Sinclair could become a useful asset given time, but he needs protection and I can see him going missing in games. Mackie is a bother but you won’t be changing a habit of a lifetime with him. If he nets you 10 goals in a season, he’s exceeding himself.

It’s still an area we need to improve on over the summer.
 
Everything positive said about Mackie is true, and I'm glad we have him.

Buuuut, what he ain't is a natural goalscorer. And if we're going to make a playoff push in this league, we're going to have to find one of those as well.

I’m not sure you’re right these days. Do successful teams in 2019 actually need the mythical 20 goals a season front man?
 
I’m not sure you’re right these days. Do successful teams in 2019 actually need the mythical 20 goals a season front man?
I don't think a 20 goal a season hitman is affordable for a club like us (unless we get in a young lad and they develop into one like we did with Roofe). However a couple of strikers in the squad that can bag 10 - 15 goals is achievable and something we have lacked. It is possibly the difference between mid table and play offs.
 
I don't think a 20 goal a season hitman is affordable for a club like us (unless we get in a young lad and they develop into one like we did with Roofe). However a couple of strikers in the squad that can bag 10 - 15 goals is achievable and something we have lacked. It is possibly the difference between mid table and play offs.
But there are teams in a similar situation if not worse who have strikers that have decent strike rates this season
 
I’m not sure you’re right these days. Do successful teams in 2019 actually need the mythical 20 goals a season front man?

Millman's already responded in general - no, you don't need 20 from your striker, but you do want someone who can reliably get into goalscoring positions, and can reliably finish. For all his undoubted attributes, Mackie has scored five in 26(11) in League One this year.

After all, to get to the playoffs, you need a bare minimum 60 goals; most playoff teams score 65+. That gets a lot easier if someone can be counted on for a dozen or more.

And finally on this topic.....worth noting that of the three outstanding teams in the division this year:
Luton have the leading goalscorer (Collins with 22).
Barnsley have Kieffer Moore, with 16.
Sunderland's top scorer is Josh Maja, with 15 - but they sold him in January!

The only one of the top six without a 15+ goalscorer is Portsmouth.
 
We’ve scored 50 this season already so we are not that far behind that asking rate.

It would be an interesting statistical exercise to compare say playoff teams scoring records now with play off teams scoring records 10 years ago to see how much they depended on a top individual goal poacher. I sense there is less dependence now.

If our defence had been in position for the whole season be interested to know what our goal difference would be. And our points total.
 
It would be an interesting statistical exercise to compare say playoff teams scoring records now with play off teams scoring records 10 years ago to see how much they depended on a top individual goal poacher. I sense there is less dependence now.

Challenge Accepted!

2018-19 Top Six (*with five/six games to go, obviously):
Luton - 80 goals, top scorer James Collins (22)
Barnsley - 68 goals, top scorer Kieffer Moore (16)
Sunderland - 69 goals, top scorer Josh Maja (15, in half a season)
Portsmouth - 71 goals, top scorer Jamal Lowe (13)
Charlton - 58 goals, top scorer Lyle Taylor (16)
Doncaster - 69 goals, top scorer John Marquis (19)

2008-09 Top Six:
Leicester - 84 goals, top scorer Matty Fryatt (27)
Peterborough - 78 goals, top scorer Craig Mackail-Smith (24)
MK Dons - 83 goals, top scorer Aaron Wilbraham (16)
Leeds - 77 goals, top scorer Jermaine Beckford (26)
Millwall - 63 goals, top scorer Gary Alexander (11)
Scunthorpe - 82 goals, top scorer Gary Hooper (24)

(as an aside, the two top scorers in League One that year - Rickie Lambert and Simon Cox (Boooooo!) - both scored 29 playing for midtable teams.)

So as a proportion of goal output, it's:

2018-19 24% from leading scorer, 2008-09 27.5%

Would seem to support your hypothesis, although I'd need to run a few more years to come up with something that was statistically significant, and I'm not that bored!
 
I believe that in recent years Bolton went up with the top scorer getting about 8.
I agree with PRB that things have changed. Many teams have players scoring throughout the team.
We of course have Henry with 14 goals but agree that having a striker who get 12 to 15 helps. Sinclair's scoring record would easily get him this in a full season.
 
The scoring scoring rate of our strikers isnt too bad...they are roughly scoring in line with the quality of chances they receive.

Where we fall short has been converting from set pieces (Nelson *should* have 5/6 goals) and from wide. Whyte and Graham simply don't score enough along with Brannagan from midfield...thats why the pace of Sinclair (or another striker is important)
 
I believe that in recent years Bolton went up with the top scorer getting about 8.
We of course have Henry with 14 goals but agree that having a striker who get 12 to 15 helps. Sinclair's scoring record would easily get him this in a full season.

Only 10 in the League though (which is what all my stats above reference).
Obviously cup goals still count, but they don't help you get into the playoffs (well, only maybe tangentially).

And yes, Bolton went up in 2016-17 with their top scorer only having 9 goals.....but they had four players that scored that number, including David Wheater (their CB). Which is of course the only alternative to having a prolific striker - you have to have a lot of players chipping in 5-10.

In short - yes, you can do well in League One without a top goalscorer. But if that's the route we're going to go behind Mackie then everyone else (barring Henry) has to chip in more than they have done this year...….
 
Traditionally, we have succeeded through lots of players chipping in throughout the season rather than having the 20+ striker. This season, as well as being too weak at the back and therefore conceeding too many, we have also struggled to get goals from all areas. We should be expecting 8-10 goals to come from our centre backs so we're a good 4 or 5 goals short there. Also Mackie, Sam Smith, Obika and recently Sinclair have barely got double figures between them. This should have been doubled. Where we are strong is in the positions off the striker and Henry, Whyte, Browne and Holmes, whilst fit, have a decent return for the season.

With many of the key players remaining we should hopefully be able to find the extra 15-20 goals throughout the side that will put us at the top end, and more so if we can continue to be solid at the back.
 
Traditionally, we have succeeded through lots of players chipping in throughout the season rather than having the 20+ striker.

Having a bit of a statistics overload on this thread today.....:confused:

But here's Oxford's last five promotion seasons (and I haven't bothered to check how many were in the league, but assuming most):

2015-16 Leading scorer - Kemar Roofe (26)
2009-10 Leading scorer - James Constable (23)
1995-95 Leading scorer - Paul Moody (24)
1984-85 Leading scorer - John Aldridge (34)
1983-84 Leading scorer - Steve Biggins (24)

And the only other time we've ever reached the playoffs:

2006-07 Leading scorer - Rob Duffy (21).


Whilst accepting all the arguments that people are making about the game changing, and the importance of getting goals from all over the team - the fact is that it's been more than 50 years since OUFC has gained promotion or a playoff place without a 20 goal scorer!
 
knowing our luck if we got a striker who could bang in 20 he’d get injured and be out for ages
Which is why I suppose managers prefer the 'goals spread around the team' model rather than 'one sh!t hot striker who scores all the goals'. One injury or loss of form and you're in trouble. I think you still need someone up front who is going to get well into double figures though, even if everyone else chips in.
 
I don't think a 20 goal a season hitman is affordable for a club like us (unless we get in a young lad and they develop into one like we did with Roofe). However a couple of strikers in the squad that can bag 10 - 15 goals is achievable and something we have lacked. It is possibly the difference between mid table and play offs.

I fully agree in terms of costs, but how are there so many teams that seem to have that one striker that can score goals. Not all promotion pushing teams either.
 
I fully agree in terms of costs, but how are there so many teams that seem to have that one striker that can score goals. Not all promotion pushing teams either.
cos it's league 1. those with good strikers have poor players in other areas. we got good keeper, wingers but no striker. the only teams with all areas covered are the ones pushing for promotion with bigger budgets
(maybe? just my theory on it)
 
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