Here we go, another big match and another chance to mess about with a spreadsheet.
As stated in the opening post, we can use xG to view the implied chances of both scoring and conceding with each shot that is taken.
For example, Accrington. xG of all shots taken = 51.86
Actual goals scored = 35
Difference = around 16
As such, from the chances created Accrington 'should' have scored 16 more goals and as such are under performing.
On the flip, Peterborough and Sunderland have outperformed their expected chances.
Looking to Rochdale and Oxford this evening, Rochdale 'should' have 6 more goals, Oxford 5. Both teams lacking going forward (both around mid-table for chances created).
With regards to chances against, Rochdale have conceded 11 goals above that which would be expected...Oxford 7.
With tonight forecast conditions we have 2 teams that create but can't finish, who are both pretty poor at the back.
Interesting that it has been commonly accepted that our issues lie when attacking, when looking at xG against per shot, Oxford are second worst, behind Bradford.
As an aside, Rochdale have conceded 17 headed goals along with 13 from outside the box. I haven't watched the Rochdale keeper, however set pieces will obviously play a big role. I remember Browne taking the right back apart at home (McGahey? - think he is now at Scunthorpe).