Matches Relegation Run ins

RgYellows said:
The way I see it, there's two possibilities. We win or we don't. So that's 50% chance we win (1 in 2). If we don't win one game, we are bound to win the next. Similarly if we don't win 16 games, we are bound to win the next 16. Appreciate the maths is too difficult for some to follow.
Click to expand...
It’s just like how if black has come up loads of times in a row at Roulette, you should bet loads on red as it’s bound to come up soon - I challenge you to find me a roulette wheel which has only ever spun black (or red)
 
RgYellows said:
The way I see it, there's two possibilities. We win or we don't. So that's 50% chance we win (1 in 2). If we don't win one game, we are bound to win the next. Similarly if we don't win 16 games, we are bound to win the next 16. Appreciate the maths is too difficult for some to follow.
Click to expand...
If my understanding of statistics is correct, our recent run of 0-6-10 is much worse than we can reasonably expect. If we win our last 4 our record becomes 4-6-10 which looks more like a normal distribution. Maybe we're over-thinking things?
 
Pete Burrett said:
If my understanding of statistics is correct, our recent run of 0-6-10 is much worse than we can reasonably expect. If we win our last 4 our record becomes 4-6-10 which looks more like a normal distribution. Maybe we're over-thinking things?
Click to expand...

Revert to the norm. Regress to the mean.
 
Taking this hypothesis to it's inevitable conclusion...

Assuming L1 is 'our natural level', we've spent 15 of the last 24 years playing below it - 4 of which were two levels below.

So we're due 11 years in The Championship and 4 in The Premier League pretty soon I'd say.

The logic is undeniable.
 
Trevor L said:

Sky Bet League One | League Table | Predicted Final League Table | 2023-2024 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football
www.footballwebpages.co.uk www.footballwebpages.co.uk

An interesting and incredibly optimistic (for us) predicted final league table.
Click to expand...

We win three games and only improve our goal difference by 1? Must be getting a bit of a hammering Saturday at Barnsley but at least we know it will turn out alright.
 
holdsteady said:
We win three games and only improve our goal difference by 1? Must be getting a bit of a hammering Saturday at Barnsley but at least we know it will turn out alright.
Click to expand...
There is a link to their predicted scores at the bottom, they have us losing 2-0 at Barnsley, then 3 1-0 wins after that, so they at least have realised we can't score more than once in a game :ROFLMAO:
 
I think even the most optimistic Oxford fan would
Not have us finishing 7 points above the relegation places. I think we need to get to 49 to be safe - hopefully 47 will be enough but I have my doubts.
 
Talk about run ins and other teams run ins, the truth is we have a heaven sent last three games run in ..... could not be cushier. People can dress it up how they like, its unquestionably and undeniably as easy as we could ask for.
 
dickwalton1964 said:
Talk about run ins and other teams run ins, the truth is we have a heaven sent last three games run in ..... could not be cushier. People can dress it up how they like, its unquestionably and undeniably as easy as we could ask for.
Click to expand...
Apart from we are the worst side on form over 17 games?
 
Oxford84 said:
Apart from we are the worst side on form over 17 games?
Click to expand...


That's irrelevant in respect of the cushiness of the run in. Whatever length our unbeaten run is does not take away the fact that that run in as easy as it gets. Where or how can it be any easier ? Bar swapping Cheltenham for, say, a team below them ? But would that be any easier as pretty much every team below Cheltenham is in the dogfight to stay up. If you were given a pen and paper and asked to write down three ideal last three game fixtures, two at home and one away, a hell of a lot of people would have come up with this three. You have the weakest one as your only away game and the second weakest one as your last home fixture of the season. It's dreamland !
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

W
General The Wallop/Greatunclekip Relegation Bet
2
Replies
25
Views
3K
Leysboy
Leysboy
S
L1 Relegation candidates
Replies
5
Views
2K
Peterdev
Peterdev
Lincoln.yellow1
Relegation - Who’s safe
2
Replies
25
Views
4K
Mellowyellow
Mellowyellow
D
Relegation dog fight
Replies
11
Views
3K
moomooland
moomooland
T
Matches Worst run since?
Replies
15
Views
2K
Deleted member 808
D
Back
Top Bottom