International News Russian War With Ukraine

[Wandering Yellow]

The idea that Russia could threaten any European or NATO country has been thoroughly debunked by their abysmal performance in Ukraine. They threw their very best troops and mercenaries at Kyiv and yet never managed to take it, and have been kept at a stalemate by an army using old Western military equipment.

Russia have been built up as a scary bogeyman who could sweep through Europe but the actual truth on the field has been very different and they clearly never had a chance against a fully equipped, modern army - and even less so now they’ve lost so much equipment and so many of their best soldiers.

I'm not worried in the slightest they'd invade Poland.

What strikes fear into me is Russia lengthening its land border with NATO and a disastrous miscalculation or accident making things going nuclear a clearer threat.

It's shocking Putin is willing to send his own people to die at war. He's no patriot, just a horrible dictator.

It was so obvious he was going to blame the ISIS attack on Ukraine/the west.

@RussianYellow no need to reply to this as I know politics isn't your thing. But to what extent do you think an "average" (if that makes any sense) Russian person believes what Putin/Russia media says.

Seeing as anyone who shows obvious opposition to Putin winds up dead, disappeared or in hiding, do you believe there could ever be an internal uprising?

 

[Big Ron]

Biden specifically. I think Putin saw his chance with Biden and went for Ukraine, the optics were right for him. Just my opinion, of course. The US has a plethora of problems particularly at the Mexican border, the right are obsessed with that and the left are obsessed with identity politics. I think Putin and his advisors may have considered an opportunity to take Ukraine with much less resistance than they really faced.

Christ, you really do like a broad sweeping generalisation - Putin took the opportunity to invade in part because the ‘left’ in America were distracted by identity politics. Really?

 

[RussianYellow]

I'm not worried in the slightest they'd invade Poland.

What strikes fear into me is Russia lengthening its land border with NATO and a disastrous miscalculation or accident making things going nuclear a clearer threat.

It's shocking Putin is willing to send his own people to die at war. He's no patriot, just a horrible dictator.

It was so obvious he was going to blame the ISIS attack on Ukraine/the west.

@RussianYellow no need to reply to this as I know politics isn't your thing. But to what extent do you think an "average" (if that makes any sense) Russian person believes what Putin/Russia media says.

Seeing as anyone who shows obvious opposition to Putin winds up dead, disappeared or in hiding, do you believe there could ever be an internal uprising?

Huge resources are spent on propaganda, so unfortunately it works at a sufficient level that a considerable number of Russians believed it.

As the events of the previous year showed, an internal uprising can indeed occur, but not from an opposition-minded public. The moment of greatest crisis for Putin was the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who in fact is an equally terrible criminal who wanted the destruction of Ukraine.

Now the only source of threat may be the dissatisfaction of soldiers who have been directly at war for two years and their relatives. But these are all events not even in the next year. During the First World War, it took almost four years for the soldiers to turn their weapons against the Tsar.

 

[Wandering Yellow]

Huge resources are spent on propaganda, so unfortunately it works at a sufficient level that a considerable number of Russians believed it.

As the events of the previous year showed, an internal uprising can indeed occur, but not from an opposition-minded public. The moment of greatest crisis for Putin was the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who in fact is an equally terrible criminal who wanted the destruction of Ukraine.

Now the only source of threat may be the dissatisfaction of soldiers who have been directly at war for two years and their relatives. But these are all events not even in the next year. During the First World War, it took almost four years for the soldiers to turn their weapons against the Tsar.

I don't blame Russian people for this war and the vast majority of people in the west don't. It's a horrible shame Putin has taken power and is abusing it.

I think a revolution from soldiers is unlikely because of how brutal Putin would be if the uprising was unsuccessful.

What do you think could lead to peace in Ukraine/ Russia overthrowing Putin? Or do you feel resigned to it being unchangeable?

 

[RussianYellow]

I don't blame Russian people for this war and the vast majority of people in the west don't. It's a horrible shame Putin has taken power and is abusing it.

I think a revolution from soldiers is unlikely because of how brutal Putin would be if the uprising was unsuccessful.

What do you think could lead to peace in Ukraine/ Russia overthrowing Putin? Or do you feel resigned to it being unchangeable?

Complete peace will not be achieved as long as Putin is in power in Russia. In this case, the conflict can only be frozen on the terms of one of the parties. It will be in favor of Ukraine if it receives significant military support (if not as direct intervention, then at least in the form of unprecedented supplies of heavy weapons such as aircraft and armored vehicles). Or on Russia’s terms, if this support never happens.

The problem is that Putin is clearly in no hurry to die, and Western countries understandably believe that this war is not worth a serious mobilization of their military resources.

 

[Bath Yellow]

Hitler and Putin one and the same

 

[Wandering Yellow]

Complete peace will not be achieved as long as Putin is in power in Russia. In this case, the conflict can only be frozen on the terms of one of the parties. It will be in favor of Ukraine if it receives significant military support (if not as direct intervention, then at least in the form of unprecedented supplies of heavy weapons such as aircraft and armored vehicles). Or on Russia’s terms, if this support never happens.

The problem is that Putin is clearly in no hurry to die, and Western countries understandably believe that this war is not worth a serious mobilization of their military resources.

Thanks for your answer, it is genuinely so interesting to read.

My fear is Putin will just appoint a successor to continue his aims, rather than someone willing to negotiate for peace.

No pressure to answer of course, but do you bother to vote? Do some people vote for Putin out of fear?

 

[RussianYellow]

Thanks for your answer, it is genuinely so interesting to read.

My fear is Putin will just appoint a successor to continue his aims, rather than someone willing to negotiate for peace.

No pressure to answer of course, but do you bother to vote? Do some people vote for Putin out of fear?

It seems to me that Putin’s power is so tied specifically to his personality that none of his followers will be able to swallow this piece and become the new “Fuhrer” in the eyes of the population.

As for elections, for people with protest sentiments like me, they have long become an empty formality. I used them simply to spoil my ballot during the “Noon against Putin” even though my border town was regularly under fire during those days.

Unfortunately, there are people who, perhaps out of their simplicity under the influence of propaganda, sincerely vote for Putin, because “there are no other worthy candidates.”

 

[Marston Road yellow]

It seems to me that Putin’s power is so tied specifically to his personality that none of his followers will be able to swallow this piece and become the new “Fuhrer” in the eyes of the population.

As for elections, for people with protest sentiments like me, they have long become an empty formality. I used them simply to spoil my ballot during the “Noon against Putin” even though my border town was regularly under fire during those days.

Unfortunately, there are people who, perhaps out of their simplicity under the influence of propaganda, sincerely vote for Putin, because “there are no other worthy candidates.”

Grateful to have your input.Always insightful.
I was watching a programme about a run down old complex called the pentagon and I was amazed at the reactions of people trying to help. Most were living in squalor yet concerned if they complain it could get a lot worse for them.
It strikes me that for most Russians Putin is the leader and he’ll do what he wants and they they have to put up and shut up or face the consequences.

 

[Stranger]

Biden specifically. I think Putin saw his chance with Biden and went for Ukraine, the optics were right for him. Just my opinion, of course. The US has a plethora of problems particularly at the Mexican border, the right are obsessed with that and the left are obsessed with identity politics. I think Putin and his advisors may have considered an opportunity to take Ukraine with much less resistance than they really faced.

Putin would have invaded Ukraine whoever was in charge in the US. Putin's obsession with invading Ukraine is unreasonable (i.e. without reason - not based on logic). He invaded Ukraine when he did because he believed Ukraine was on the verge of EU accession and the last thing he wanted was a Ukraine (democratic and very western-influenced) under the EU umbrella.

He obviously miscalculated that his army/air force/navy would be too strong for Ukraine and that he would have full control of the country within days. Thankfully Ukraine's spirit was too strong and they initially held and then repulsed most of the invading force. Sadly, he managed to take Crimea, much of the Donbas, and large swathes of the Black Sea coast.

The West is so afraid of conflict with Russia that they continue to withhold the vital kit that Ukraine needs to prevent Russia advancing on land and bombing from the air. Supplies on the front line are running low and it looks likely that, without further aid, Ukraine's forces will be forced to retreat again. If Putin does win this war, it will be because the west was unwilling to help Ukraine stop him.

 

[Wandering Yellow]

Putin would have invaded Ukraine whoever was in charge in the US. Putin's obsession with invading Ukraine is unreasonable (i.e. without reason - not based on logic). He invaded Ukraine when he did because he believed Ukraine was on the verge of EU accession and the last thing he wanted was a Ukraine (democratic and very western-influenced) under the EU umbrella.

He obviously miscalculated that his army/air force/navy would be too strong for Ukraine and that he would have full control of the country within days. Thankfully Ukraine's spirit was too strong and they initially held and then repulsed most of the invading force. Sadly, he managed to take Crimea, much of the Donbas, and large swathes of the Black Sea coast.

The West is so afraid of conflict with Russia that they continue to withhold the vital kit that Ukraine needs to prevent Russia advancing on land and bombing from the air. Supplies on the front line are running low and it looks likely that, without further aid, Ukraine's forces will be forced to retreat again. If Putin does win this war, it will be because the west was unwilling to help Ukraine stop him.

It feels like the countries offering big financial support to Ukraine are mired in our own political dogfighting.

The US has the Mexican border occupying the right and identity politics occupying the left.

The UK has a general election coming up and as usual its political point scoring galore going on. On the streets of London Ukraine seems forgotten about as people react to the Palestine-Israel conflict.

You can tell its out of the news cycle, nobody had posted on this thread since Xmas day until a few days ago.

Will the west rue not doing more to help Ukraine one day if we withdraw funding? I think so.

 

[tonyw]

It feels like the countries offering big financial support to Ukraine are mired in our own political dogfighting.

The US has the Mexican border occupying the right and identity politics occupying the left.

It is political dogfighting, but it's not these issues that are preventing the US from passing a bill for more Ukraine aid.

The bill easily passed the senate, but it's currently held up in the House and a vote has not yet even been called. The reason is that the far-right conservative wing of the Republican party have adopted an America First isolationist model; essentially, "we've got enough of our own problems, we can't be sending money overseas". There's not enough of them to win a vote on the issue but there are enough of them to force a vote on the House leadership, and basically get Johnson fired from the role (the same way they did to McCarthy last year) if he brings this bill to floor.

So it seems that there is some horsetrading going on behind the scenes, to the extent that the Democrats might just agree to save Johnson's job themselves if he agrees to bring the Ukraine bill to the floor.

(it also should be noted that the Ukraine funding bill is coupled with funding for Israel, and that's also causing some far left Democrats to vote against it e.g. Bernie Sanders. But there's not enough of them to stop the funding going ahead).

In other words, it's utter political disfunction in the US, and it's playing squarely into Putin's hands.

 

[QR]

The reason is that the far-right conservative wing of the Republican party have adopted an America First isolationist model; essentially, "we've got enough of our own problems, we can't be sending money overseas".

This is very true and many are starting to see how isolated the UK has made itself in leaving the EU. You've got the large economic blocs of the US, China, Russia and the EU and the oil power of the middle east and we are out on a limb as the world retreats from globalism. Madness.

 

[Sheik djibouti]

It is political dogfighting, but it's not these issues that are preventing the US from passing a bill for more Ukraine aid.

The bill easily passed the senate, but it's currently held up in the House and a vote has not yet even been called. The reason is that the far-right conservative wing of the Republican party have adopted an America First isolationist model; essentially, "we've got enough of our own problems, we can't be sending money overseas". There's not enough of them to win a vote on the issue but there are enough of them to force a vote on the House leadership, and basically get Johnson fired from the role (the same way they did to McCarthy last year) if he brings this bill to floor.

So it seems that there is some horsetrading going on behind the scenes, to the extent that the Democrats might just agree to save Johnson's job themselves if he agrees to bring the Ukraine bill to the floor.

(it also should be noted that the Ukraine funding bill is coupled with funding for Israel, and that's also causing some far left Democrats to vote against it e.g. Bernie Sanders. But there's not enough of them to stop the funding going ahead).

In other words, it's utter political disfunction in the US, and it's playing squarely into Putin's hands.

And precisely why Putin is so invested in ensuring large swathes of the US electorate think Trump is some kind of demigod.

He's playing them like a two rouble fiddle.

To the extent that Trump supporters have a more favourable view of Putin than they do Biden.

 

[Wandering Yellow]

The stalemate has been the stalemate for quite a while now.

Say Ukraine does get the funding it needs and the war falls into a trenched static war-front, will fatigue eventually set in?

Russia takes captured territories and a very awkward peace begins.

Zalenksyy can claim Ukraine stood firm against all odds.
Putin will get the propaganda machine in full motion, claim he has "de-nazified" Ukraine and "liberated" Russian speaking people.
The new US president can claim peace was achieved under their watch.

It's the only path I can think of to peace.

If Russia flunked it and Ukraine retook their entire country could we see Putin go nuclear?

If Ukraine don't get the funding and Russia take Kyiv and get to the borders of Poland, Russia share an even bigger land border with the EU. Any anti-Russian attacks in Ukraine Putin will accuse of being orchestrated by the west.

It's out of the news cycle but it needs to be talked about. I really recommend the enemy in the woods documentary to anyone who hasn't seen it.

 

[Wandering Yellow]

This is very true and many are starting to see how isolated the UK has made itself in leaving the EU. You've got the large economic blocs of the US, China, Russia and the EU and the oil power of the middle east and we are out on a limb as the world retreats from globalism. Madness.

There are only two financial powerhouses in the EU. The rest are net beneficiaries.

China and Russia should tell you everything you need to know about undemocratic blocs having too much power and the dangers that come with that.

Not everything is about Brexit. The UK is still a major player on the global stage whether you like it or not.

 

[QR]

There are only two financial powerhouses in the EU. The rest are net beneficiaries.

China and Russia should tell you everything you need to know about undemocratic blocs having too much power and the dangers that come with that.

Not everything is about Brexit. The UK is still a major player on the global stage whether you like it or not.

I didn't say 'financial powerhouses' I said 'economic blocs'. But you have it your way.

 

[SteMerritt]

It's out of the news cycle

It's been in the news practically every day over the last couple of weeks

 

[Wandering Yellow]

It's been in the news practically every day over the last couple of weeks

We must get our news from different sources

 

[Big Ron]

We must get our news from different sources

It might not be in the headlines in a football forum, or actual daily headline news in the wider media - that's the nature of the news cycle - but the BBC have a specific 'Ukraine War' tab within the new page, the Guardian runs a daily update, as I think does The Times. Guess it depends where you get your news from.