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General L1 23/24 - 5 Game Blocks

Steve Gilbert

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11 Feb 2021
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2023/2024 Season
Block 1
Cambridge (A) - 0
Carlisle (H) - 3
Derby (A) - 3
Barnsley (A) - 3
Charlton (H) - 3
Total out of 15: 12
Form: 1st/2nd Place
Manager - Liam Manning
Block 2
Vale (H) - 0
Fleetwood (A) - 3
Exeter (H) - 3
Stevenage (A) - 3
Shrewsbury (H) - 3
Total out of 15: 12
Form: 1st/2nd Place
Manager - Liam Manning
Block 3
Bristol Rovers (H) - 3
Blackpool (H) - 1
Wigan (A) - 0
Wycombe (H) - 1
Lincoln (A) - 3
Total out of 15: 8
Form: 7th Place
Manager - Liam Manning
Block 4
Orient (A) - 3
Cheltenham (A) - 0
Bolton (H) - 1
Peterborough (A) - 0
Reading (A) - 1
Total out of 15: 5
Form: Relegation
Manager - Des Buckingham
Block 5
Burton (H) - 3
Northampton (A) - 0
Cambridge (H) - 3
Derby (H) - 0
Charlton (A) - 3
Total out of 15: 9
Form: 6th Place
Manager - Des Buckingham
Block 6
Carlisle (A) - 3
Barnsley (H) - 0
Bristol Rovers (A) - 0
Pompey (H) - 1
Reading (H) - 1
Total out of 15: 5
Form: Relegation
Manager - Des Buckingham
Block 7
Blackpool (A) - 1
Wigan (H) - 3
Wycombe (A) - 1
Northampton (H) - 1
Orient (H) - 0
Total out of 15: 6
Form: Relegation
Manager - Des Buckingham
Block 8
Pompey (A) - 0
Cheltenham (H) - 3
Bolton (A) - 0
Vale (A) - 3
Shrewsbury (A) - 1
Total out of 15: 7
Form: Mid-Table
Manager - Des Buckingham
Block 9
Fleetwood (H) - 3
Burton (A) - 3
Peterborough (H) - 3
Lincoln (H) - 0
Stevenage (H) - 1
Exeter (A) - 3
Total out of 18: 13
Form: Play off winning form!!
Manager - Des Buckingham
Season Average PPB: 8
Season Average Form: 8th Place

Past Seasons

2nd place:
2022/23: 98
2021/22: 90
2020/21: 87
2018/19: 91
20/17/18: 96
Average = 92.4
PPB for 93 points = 11​
3rd place (+1 point):
2022/23: 95 (96)
2021/22: 89 (90)
2020/21: 80 (81)
2018/19: 88 (89)
2017/18: 87 (88)
Average = 87.8
PPB for 88 points = 10​
6th place:
2022/23: 77
2021/22: 83
2020/21: 74
2018/19: 73
2017/18: 71
Average = 75.6
PPB for 76 points = 9​
20th Place:
2022/23: 46
2021/22: 40
2020/21: 48
2018/19: 50
2017/18: 51
Average = 47
PPB for 47 points = 6​
 
Last edited:
I guess we’ll see who is right at the end of the month. Bookmark this.

My reasons - Carlisle will be a long journey plus they’ve got new signing Armstrong available. Narrow home win in my view.
Northampton we rarely do well against, as evidenced in the away fixture. Reading are reasonable away from home and will bring noisy support. We may be higher up the league than both but I wouldn’t bet against us losing one/both matches against these fairly local rivals.
I bookmarked your post.

Would you like to revise your January predictions?
 
10 points from Block 6 should be an absolute minimum now.

There’s no reason why we shouldn’t be able to make it a 11 point block either. Any more is ambitious, but 11 would be superb
 
With the Pompey game now on 30th that game falls into this block of 5 games with Reading being the 1st game of the next block.
 
Current PPG would see Bolton become champions on 98pts.
Peterborough grabbing 2nd on 92pts.
Portsmouth and Derby both on 90pts.
We come in 5th on 87pts.
Barnsley in 6th on 85pts and Stevenage 7th on 81pts.

Currently, the top 7 are pulling away as Blackpool are on target for 8th on 72pts.

I can't see Bolton maintaining their PPG, they've already got a lot of fixtures to fit in and they are also still in 2 cups.
They've only got 5 free mid-weeks and one of those is required for last saturday's game.
 
Blocks updated with the Northampton game now rearranged.
Block 8 looks very tough with 4 out of 5 away games with 2 of them being Pompey and Bolton plus Vale which we never seem to do very well when we play there. 2 winnable games with Shrewsbury away and Cheltenham at home though.
 
You were wrong, we got 2 more points than you predicted so you must be happy?
I predicted 3 points from that block of games and we got 4. Not far out.
No, I’m not happy about it either but I could see a dip coming in amongst some tricky games.
 
I predicted 3 points from that block of games and we got 4. Not far out.
No, I’m not happy about it either but I could see a dip coming in amongst some tricky games.
Let's not forget you were two points out AND we still have to play the postponed game against Northampton.

Still a bad prediction even if we get nothing in the spare game.

👍
 
Averaging 7 points per block since Des took charge (lower mid-table form) and 8.5 over the season so far, we'll need a change in form pretty soon if we are to make the playoffs, especially as a lot of the clubs around us strengthened in the transfer window
 
Averaging 7 points per block since Des took charge (lower mid-table form) and 8.5 over the season so far, we'll need a change in form pretty soon if we are to make the playoffs, especially as a lot of the clubs around us strengthened in the transfer window
He’s doing a phenomenal job if he’s averaging 7 points per game.
 
My predictions for the next 5 game block -

Block 7
Blackpool (A) Lose
Wigan (H) Win
Wycombe (A) Draw
Northampton (H) Draw
Orient (H) Win
Total out of 15: 8
 
Have updated the initial post from @Steve Gilbert to highlight the form for each block plus where our average form so far would see us finish if it continued for the rest of the season.

Interestingly, this table has us just sneaking past Stevenage on goal difference.

Screenshot 2024-02-14 at 01.08.22.png
 
My predictions for the next 5 game block -

Block 7
Blackpool (A) Lose
Wigan (H) Win
Wycombe (A) Draw
Northampton (H) Draw
Orient (H) Win
Total out of 15: 8
Well, that was worse than I predicted even if 3 of my 5 were accurate. To only get 6 points from that block is quite poor.
 
Some of the top 5 might be falter a little, but they should all have plenty of points to stay in the autos or playoff places.

So we have 5 teams vying for 6th place so worth looking at the run in for each of them.

Oxford 63 points + 10
Shrewsbury (a)
Fleetwood (h)
Burton (a)
Peterborough (h)
Lincoln (h)
Stevenage (h)
Exeter (a)

Lincoln 61 points + 23
Leyton Orient (h)
Carlisle (a)
Reading (a)
Wigan (h)
Oxford (a)
Cheltenham (a)
Portsmouth (h)

Stevenage 61 points + 11
Carlisle (a)
Bolton (h)
Charlton (a)
Exeter (a)
Barnsley (h)
Burton (h)
Oxford (a)
Cheltenham (h)

Blackpool 60 points + 15
Derby (a)
Wycombe (h)
Cambridge (h)
Fleetwood (h)
Carlisle (a)
Barnsley (h)
Reading (a)

Leyton Orient 58 points 0
Lincoln (a)
Peterborough (h)
Cheltenham (h)
Exeter (h)
Derby (a)
Fleetwood (h)
Shrewsbury (a)


If Lincoln maintain their form then I don't think anyone catches them especially as Cheltenham may be down and Pompey Champions by the time they play. I think we need them to drop points against Leyton Orient and to beat them at our place to finish above them - and both are entirely possible.

Stevenage have some tricky games, and I expect them to drop points against Bolton, Charlton and Barnsley before they play us.

Blackpool have a bad game or two in them and losing away at Derby will hopefully put them 6 points off us with 6 games to go, and that should be enough.

Leyton Orient are having a great season and I can see them getting a point at Lincoln, but unlikely to beat Peterborough and Derby, which with their point deficit at the moment means they'll gave too much to do.

Of course, this all assumes that we see far more consistency in performance and results. We can't afford any slip ups and probably need at least 4 points from Lincoln and Stevenage as well as beating the weaker teams.

Far from guaranteed, but also far from season over as some have suggested.
 
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