General L1 23/24 - 5 Game Blocks

[Steve Gilbert]

2023/2024 Season
​

Block 1 Cambridge (A) - 0 Carlisle (H) - 3 Derby (A) - 3 Barnsley (A) - 3 Charlton (H) - 3 Total out of 15: 12 Form: 1st/2nd Place Manager - Liam Manning​	Block 2 Vale (H) - 0 Fleetwood (A) - 3 Exeter (H) - 3 Stevenage (A) - 3 Shrewsbury (H) - 3 Total out of 15: 12 Form: 1st/2nd Place Manager - Liam Manning​	Block 3 Bristol Rovers (H) - 3 Blackpool (H) - 1 Wigan (A) - 0 Wycombe (H) - 1 Lincoln (A) - 3 Total out of 15: 8 Form: 7th Place Manager - Liam Manning​
Block 4 Orient (A) - 3 Cheltenham (A) - 0 Bolton (H) - 1 Peterborough (A) - 0 Reading (A) - 1 Total out of 15: 5 Form: Relegation Manager - Des Buckingham​	Block 5 Burton (H) - 3 Northampton (A) - 0 Cambridge (H) - 3 Derby (H) - 0 Charlton (A) - 3 Total out of 15: 9 Form: 6th Place Manager - Des Buckingham​	Block 6 Carlisle (A) - 3 Barnsley (H) - 0 Bristol Rovers (A) - 0 Pompey (H) - 1 Reading (H) - 1 Total out of 15: 5 Form: Relegation Manager - Des Buckingham​
Block 7 Blackpool (A) - 1 Wigan (H) - 3 Wycombe (A) - 1 Northampton (H) - 1 Orient (H) - 0 Total out of 15: 6 Form: Relegation Manager - Des Buckingham​	Block 8 Pompey (A) - 0 Cheltenham (H) - 3 Bolton (A) - 0 Vale (A) - 3 Shrewsbury (A) - 1 Total out of 15: 7 Form: Mid-Table Manager - Des Buckingham​	Block 9 Fleetwood (H) - 3 Burton (A) - 3 Peterborough (H) - 3 Lincoln (H) - 0 Stevenage (H) - 1 Exeter (A) Total out of 18: Manager - Des Buckingham​

Season Average PPB: 8 Season Average Form: 8th Place​

Past Seasons​

2nd place: 2022/23: 98 2021/22: 90 2020/21: 87 2018/19: 91 20/17/18: 96 Average = 92.4 PPB for 93 points = 11​	3rd place (+1 point): 2022/23: 95 (96) 2021/22: 89 (90) 2020/21: 80 (81) 2018/19: 88 (89) 2017/18: 87 (88) Average = 87.8 PPB for 88 points = 10​
6th place: 2022/23: 77 2021/22: 83 2020/21: 74 2018/19: 73 2017/18: 71 Average = 75.6 PPB for 76 points = 9​	20th Place: 2022/23: 46 2021/22: 40 2020/21: 48 2018/19: 50 2017/18: 51 Average = 47 PPB for 47 points = 6​

 

[BristolOx]

Not a bad first block. If you looked at the first 2 blocks and asked for 12 points it wouldn't be the first one. Pretty excited to see where we are at the end of block 2.

 

[Foley]

Block 2 looks a bit easier without Lincoln away.

 

[NorthWestOx]

What is the average for 3rd and 7th place?
We 'only' need an extra point to make 2nd or 6th.

 

[SteMerritt]

Sorry, had to update the thread title, it was doing my head in having 2 `+` at the beginning and only 1 at the end...

Glad someone has kicked this off again though, always a good way to break down the season.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

What is the average for 3rd and 7th place?
We 'only' need an extra point to make 2nd or 6th.

3rd place average over the same seasons is 88 points so 9.5 points per block (round up to 10).
7th place average over the same seasons is 74 points so 8 points per block.

3rd place totals:
2022/23: 96
2021/22: 89
2020/21: 80
2018/19: 88
2017/18: 87

7th place totals:
2022/23: 76
2021/22: 80
2020/21: 74
2018/19: 72
2017/18: 68

 

[Marked Ox]

Sorry, had to update the thread title, it was doing my head in having 2 `+` at the beginning and only 1 at the end...

Glad someone has kicked this off again though, always a good way to break down the season.

Probably need to change the year as well.

 

[SteMerritt]

Probably need to change the year as well.

Done. I was so thrown by the missing '+' that I never noticed that.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Probably need to change the year as well.

In my defence it took me an hour to put this thread together while trying to work as well

 

[ZeroTheHero]

In my defence it took me an hour to put this thread together while trying to work as well

Yes, well done for taking this up again. I did it for a couple of seasons, but let it lapse. (It is a real pain when they move/rearrange matches and you have to rejig everything!)

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Yes, well done for taking this up again. I did it for a couple of seasons, but let it lapse. (It is a real pain when they move/rearrange matches and you have to rejig everything!)

Oh I know. It is worth noting that reading is also likely to be cancelled.
I will put an * next to the games that fall on international breaks and potentially take them out of the blocks they fall in like I have with Lincoln.

@SteMerritt could you please pin the thread.

 

[SteMerritt]

Oh I know. It is worth noting that reading is also likely to be cancelled.
I will put an * next to the games that fall on international breaks and potentially take them out of the blocks they fall in like I have with Lincoln.

@SteMerritt could you please pin the thread.

Looks like it is already pinned (Forum term is a 'sticky' thread)

 

[southlondonyellow]

I'd be more than happy if each block mirrors the first. The second block has done this so far, with Port Vale being the first block's Cambridge.

We just need 4 wins on the bounce now!

 

[Steve Gilbert]

I've now put Lincoln away into the next block (luckily it just replaces the Reading game). I have also taken Reading away, Pompey at home & Lincoln at home out of blocks at the moment due to these falling on international breaks and no doubt being called off.

 

[RyanioBirdio]

A more accurate benchmark for automatic promotion would be to take the points scored by the team in third each season and then add one. Otherwise you’re creating averages that aren’t actually reflective of what was needed to achieve the end goal. You’re only trying to beat the third placed team.

3rd place (+1 point):
2022/23: 95 (96)
2021/22: 89 (90)
2020/21: 80 (81)
2018/19: 88 (89)
2017/18: 87 (88)

Average = 87.8
Points needed per block for 88 points = 10

EDIT: Just seen someone else make the same point further up the thread, but might not be a bad idea to amend the original post.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

A more accurate benchmark for automatic promotion would be to take the points scored by the team in third each season and then add one. Otherwise you’re creating averages that aren’t actually reflective of what was needed to achieve the end goal. You’re only trying to beat the third placed team.

3rd place (+1 point):
2022/23: 95 (96)
2021/22: 89 (90)
2020/21: 80 (81)
2018/19: 88 (89)
2017/18: 87 (88)

Average = 87.8
Points needed per block for 88 points = 10

EDIT: Just seen someone else make the same point further up the thread, but might not be a bad idea to amend the original post.

Added to original post.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

A more accurate benchmark for automatic promotion would be to take the points scored by the team in third each season and then add one. Otherwise you’re creating averages that aren’t actually reflective of what was needed to achieve the end goal. You’re only trying to beat the third placed team.

3rd place (+1 point):
2022/23: 95 (96)
2021/22: 89 (90)
2020/21: 80 (81)
2018/19: 88 (89)
2017/18: 87 (88)

Average = 87.8
Points needed per block for 88 points = 10

EDIT: Just seen someone else make the same point further up the thread, but might not be a bad idea to amend the original post.

An average of points needed also doesn’t really work though as extremely high or low one off seasons can throw off the curve. Your average of 88 potentially only would have been enough for 2 of the last 5 seasons… although it’s pretty close, but I’d argue 89/90 would be more accurate to say ‘In all but the most extreme of scenarios, this will be enough’. I agree with you though that the 93 currently in the OP is too high

 

[RyanioBirdio]

An average of points needed also doesn’t really work though as extremely high or low one off seasons can throw off the curve. Your average of 88 potentially only would have been enough for 2 of the last 5 seasons… although it’s pretty close, but I’d argue 89/90 would be more accurate to say ‘In all but the most extreme of scenarios, this will be enough’. I agree with you though that the 93 currently in the OP is too high

I agree, although I think this season might be a fairly modest one looking at the current PPG table:

Sky Bet League One | League Table | Points per Match | 2023-2024 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football

www.footballwebpages.co.uk

I don’t believe Vale or Stevenage will maintain their current rate of returns over 46 games, so I think it’ll come down to how Barnsley, Derby and Bolton average out, along with ourselves and Portsmouth. Finally being rid of all the big boys like Sunderland, Ipswich and Wednesday should hopefully bring the average down a bit, as for a while there they were trying to cram through the same door (Plymouth going bananas last season was a real rarity and pushed it all up even more), while recently relegated clubs like Wigan and Reading not chucking money about alongside suffering points deductions will help even further.

I wouldn’t be too surprised if 84 points (9 points per block and a win from the final game) ends up being enough. I think this is the most ‘even’ division for a number of years.

Although to pick up on your point re the skewing of the average - look at the state of the relegated points totals as opposed to the promotion ones. We really should’ve gone down last season.

 

[chuckbert]

Looks like it is already pinned (Forum term is a 'sticky' thread)

Eeuww

 

[m]

I agree, although I think this season might be a fairly modest one looking at the current PPG table:

Sky Bet League One | League Table | Points per Match | 2023-2024 | Football Web Pages

Live Football Scores, League Tables, Form Guides, Attendances, Latest News and other stats from the Premier League, Football League and Non-League football

www.footballwebpages.co.uk

I don’t believe Vale or Stevenage will maintain their current rate of returns over 46 games, so I think it’ll come down to how Barnsley, Derby and Bolton average out, along with ourselves and Portsmouth. Finally being rid of all the big boys like Sunderland, Ipswich and Wednesday should hopefully bring the average down a bit, as for a while there they were trying to cram through the same door (Plymouth going bananas last season was a real rarity and pushed it all up even more), while recently relegated clubs like Wigan and Reading not chucking money about alongside suffering points deductions will help even further.

I wouldn’t be too surprised if 84 points (9 points per block and a win from the final game) ends up being enough. I think this is the most ‘even’ division for a number of years.

Although to pick up on your point re the skewing of the average - look at the state of the relegated points totals as opposed to the promotion ones. We really should’ve gone down last season.

All a bit depressing for Cheltenham who are heading towards finishing on 5 points* without scoring a goal**

*3 of which will inevitably come from us
**no, I don't know how this would work re the above either.***


***edit: Maybe we'll invite Eddie Hutchinson back for a game and not register him