+-+ 5 Game Blocks 2019/20 Season +-+

[ZeroTheHero]

As on the other thread, DSW has left the forum, so I'll restart this and try to keep it up to date. Please feel free to nudge me if I forget! For the result, I will always put the Oxford score first rather than the home team.

The number in brackets after each fixture is the number of points we got from the equivalent fixture last year.

Block 1

Sunderland (A) (1) P'borough (H) (0) Blackpool (A) (3) Burton (H) (3) Bristol R'vrs (A) (1)

D 1-1 (1) W 1-0 (3) L 1-2 (0) L 2-4 (0) L 1-3 (0)

Total out of 15: 4 (cumulative total 4)


2018/19: 3 (cumulative total 3)
2017/18: 8 (cumulative total 8)
2016/17: 4 (cumulative total 4)

Block 2

Coventry (H) (0) Fleetwood (A) (1) Tranmere (H) (na) Bolton (A) (na) Lincoln (A) (na)

D 3-3 (1) L 1-2 (0) W 3-0 (3) D 0-0 (1) W 6-0 (3)

Total out of 15: 8 (cumulative total 12)


2018/19: 2 (cumulative total 5)
2017/18: 4 (cumulative total 12)
2016/17: 8 (cumulative total 12)

Block 3

Gillingham (H) (3) Accrington (A) (0) Doncaster (H) (1) Rotherham (A) (na) Rochdale (H) (3)

W 3-0 (3) D 2-2 (1) W 3-0 (3) W 2-1 (3) W 3-0 (3)

Total out of 15: 13 (cumulative total 25)


2018/19: 6 (cumulative total 11)
2017/18: 11 (cumulative total 23)
2016/17: 7 (cumulative total 19)

Block 4

Portsmouth (A) (0) Southend (A) (1) Shrewsbury (H) (3) MK Dons (A) (na) Wycombe (H) (3)

D 1-1 (1) W 4-0 (3) D 0-0 (1) L 0-1 (0) W 1-0 (3)

Total out of 15: 8 (cumulative total 33)


2018/19: 10 (cumulative total 21)
2017/18: 4 (cumulative total 27)
2016/17: 7 (cumulative total 26)

Block 5

Lincoln (H) (na) Wimbledon (A) (0) Doncaster (A) (1) Rotherham (H) (na) Ipswich (H) (na)

W 1-0 (3) W 2-1 (3) L 0-1 (0) L 1-3 (0) D 0-0 (1)

Total out of 15: 7 (cumulative total 40)


2018/19: 5 (cumulative total 26)
2017/18: 5 (cumulative total 32)
2016/17: 8 (cumulative total 34)

Block 6

Gillingham (A) (0) Blackpool (H) (3) Peterborough (A) (1) Burton (A) (1) Sunderland (H) (1)

D 1-1 (1) W 2-1 (3) L 0-4 (0) D 2-2 (1) L 0-1 (0)

Total out of 15: 5 (cumulative total 45)


2018/19: 5 (cumulative total 31)
2017/18: 9 (cumulative total 41)
2016/17: 9 (cumulative total 43)

Block 7

Wimbledon (H) (1) Ipswich (A) (na) Accrington (H) (0) Southend (H) (0) Shrewsbury (A) (3)

W 5-0 (3) W 1-0 (3) W 3-0 (3) W 2-1 (3) W 3-2 (3)

Total out of 15: 15 (cumulative total 60)


2018/19: 8 (cumulative total 39)
2017/18: 0 (cumulative total 41)
2016/17: 9 (cumulative total 52)

Block 8

MK Dons (H) (na) Wycombe (A) (1) Portsmouth (H) (3) Rochdale (A) (1) Bristol Rovers (H) (0)

- - - - -

Total out of 15:


2018/19: 10 (cumulative total 49)
2017/18: 4 (cumulative total 45)
2016/17: 7 (cumulative total 59)

Block 9

Coventry (A) (3) Fleetwood (H) (0) Tranmere (A) (na) Bolton (H) (na)

- - - -

Total out of 12:


2018/19 (out of 15): 11 (cumulative total 60)
2017/18 (out of 15): 10 (cumulative total 55)
2016/17 (out of 15): 7 (cumulative total 66)

Past Seasons (46 games - only 44 this season)

2nd place:
2018/19 - 91
2017/18 - 96
2016/17 - 86
2015/16 - 85
2014/15 - 91
2013/14 - 94
Average = 90.5
Points needed per block for 91 points = 11

6th place:
2018/19 - 73
2017/18 - 71
2016/17 - 73
2015/16 - 74
2014/15 - 69
2013/14 - 74
Average = 72.3
Points needed per block for 73 points = 9

20th Place:
2018/19 - 50
2017/18 - 51
2016/17 - 50
2015/16 - 50
2014/15 - 52
2013/14 - 50
Average = 50.5
Points needed per block for 51 points = 6

To Be Rearranged:

 

[Malc]

well done Mr. Zero. You are a hero.

 

[radicalox]

Question is do we expect playoffs and safety to be lower this year, given only 23 teams.
I'd say for safety, definitely, for playoffs, maybe.

 

[BristolOx]

Block 3 has a maximum tally of 12. Or alternatively you could shuffle every other block down a game.

 

[Norwayyellow]

Great stuff Zero you really are a hero ;-)

Thanks for starting this up again!

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Block 3 has a maximum tally of 12. Or alternatively you could shuffle every other block down a game.

Indeed, well spotted, as has block 6. I've just changed them to 12 for now, but might remove Bury and shuffle everything up to make them five game blocks again. I shall be sending Bury and the EFL a bill for my time!

Edit - and actually the points required for the various places will be a bit wrong as every team has 6 points less to play for. But I think that's just worth leaving as is, as it's six possible points out of a possible (44 x 3pts) 132 points, so less than 5%.

 

[Gary Baldi]

Would it be something that would work on a Google Doc? It can then have a new tab added each season and be stored centrally in case anyone flounces off

 

[ZeroTheHero]

OK, have removed the Bury games and shuffled the others up so we have blocks of five again which I think makes more sense...
Let me know if you spot anything, peeps.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Even with Bury leaving the league 20th place would still be classed as safe so I would say the points needed to avoid the relegation zone would stay roughly around the 50 point mark.
It might make more a difference on making the play offs with potentially 3 less points needed to get 6th place so potentially 70 points would see a team get into the play offs.

 

[MarkG]

Question is do we expect playoffs and safety to be lower this year, given only 23 teams.
I'd say for safety, definitely, for playoffs, maybe.

Good question.
If the teams in the play-offs are normally on about 1.5 points per match (72), then taking away two games makes 69 the play-off target this year?
And if the teams in 20th place are on 1 point per game (50), then take away two games makes 48?
and for second place at 2 points per game for 91, makes the target 87?

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Even with Bury leaving the league 20th place would still be classed as safe so I would say the points needed to avoid the relegation zone would stay roughly around the 50 point mark.
It might make more a difference on making the play offs with potentially 3 less points needed to get 6th place so potentially 70 points would see a team get into the play offs.

That's probably right. The teams at the top are more likely to have won more of the six 'missing' points than those at the bottom, so I suspect it makes more difference at the higher end. I'd guess that the points for 2nd place would be three or four points less than might have been required (as a team in second might have perhaps got a home win or a win and an away draw). I won't adjust the figures for past seasons though as they are factual, and the number required varies anyway.

 

[Scotchegg]

Even at this early stage we are already 7 points up on this stage of last season!

*E-I-E-I-E-I-O, up the football league we go!!!

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Even at this early stage we are already 7 points up on this stage of last season!

*E-I-E-I-E-I-O, up the football league we go!!!

And if we keep up the points rate so far (6 points per block) we will stay up. Just.

E-I-E-I-E-I-O, staying where we are we go!!!

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Updated. I have also added cumulative totals so that we can compare to previous seasons as we go along.
BUT - I am not sure some of the previous seasons data is correct, as adding the totals up for the whole seasons seems to give a different amount than we actually finished with. Either that or my adding up is rubbish. If anyone sees a problem with my maths let me know - otherwise I'll have to check the five game blocks for the previous seasons somehow!

 

[radicalox]

13 in this block !

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Updated!

 

[Foley]

Updated!

Its east to forget that first block.
Pretty good since then.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

We have only failed to score in one league game this season, and that was a draw.

So teams are very probably going to have to score at least two to beat us.

 

[beyondthefourth]

We have only failed to score in one league game this season, and that was a draw.

So teams are very probably going to have to score at least two to beat us.

Today was the first time we've been losing at any point in a match (not counting the Leasing) since Fleetwood on the 7th September. Almost 2 months.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Updated - 8 points this block. The goals have trailed off a bit (esp if you take the FA Cup and Leasing thingy into account)

We are doing significantly better than the last three seasons

20 games played out of the 44 we will play this season, so half way will be after Wimbledon.

The next block has only four games in it because I am presuming the Ipswich game will be there somewhere.

 

[iambungle]

Updated - 8 points this block. The goals have trailed off a bit (esp if you take the FA Cup and Leasing thingy into account)

We are doing significantly better than the last three seasons

20 games played out of the 44 we will play this season, so half way will be after Wimbledon.

The next block has only four games in it because I am presuming the Ipswich game will be there somewhere.

Accy won't be though.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Indeed - if they don't sort out the Ipswich game soon I will presume that neither game will be in the block. Too bone idle to do it twice if I don't have to!

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Updated with the last two results in there.

I have moved the Ipswich and Accrington home games out of the list for now - will reinstate them when we know when they are, and will rejig the next block of five games nearer to the time (maybe one of those games will be in there - hopefully not, as we will be on an FA Cup run!).

We are now halfway through the season. Stating the bleeding obvious, if we do as well in the second half of the season as we have in the first half we will get 78 points. Even if we weren't two games short this season, that would be enough for the playoffs - I reckon that 70 points will get us into the playoffs and a touch over 80 into the automatics (pure guess!). Record is W11 D6 L5 - we have played 10 home games and 12 away.

Edit - Given that we only amassed 5 points from our first seven games (!!!) and I don't think we will go on such a poor run again - things are looking good!

 

[BristolOx]

They’ve updated this - really interesting read

Experimental 361 | Ben Mayhew | Substack

A continuation of the Experimental 361 blog and Twitter account, providing data visualisation and analysis of football. Click to read Experimental 361, by Ben Mayhew, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

experimental361.com

Edit: this link is the interesting one - https://experimental361.com/2019/12/27/scatter-graphics-league-1-27-dec-2019/

 

[beyondthefourth]

They’ve updated this - really interesting read

Experimental 361 | Ben Mayhew | Substack

A continuation of the Experimental 361 blog and Twitter account, providing data visualisation and analysis of football. Click to read Experimental 361, by Ben Mayhew, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

experimental361.com

Edit: this link is the interesting one - https://experimental361.com/2019/12/27/scatter-graphics-league-1-27-dec-2019/

Looks like we need to keep an eye on Coventry. They just seem to be wasteful in front of goal. But as we saw at the weekend, Godden seems to have found his shooting boots.

 

[ZeroTheHero]

Updated and the end of the five game block - points-wise the worst since the first one of the season. We could do with another 'Block 3'!

 

[ttg17]

Mad how if we beat Sunderland tomorrow we’ll still have been ticking along nicely at 7 or 8 points per 5 game group (with the exception of the first batch) all season, despite our recent poor form.

 

[Scotchegg]

9 points per 5 game block from here on in and it'll be the playoffs. Start ordering the foam hands!!!!

 

[ttg17]

9 points per 5 game block from here on in and it'll be the playoffs. Start ordering the foam hands!!!!

Block 7 - Wimbledon (H), Accrington (H), Southend (H) (plus you'd reasonably expect to get something from Shrews (A))
Block 8 - MK (H), Rochdale (A) Bristol Rovers (H) (Rovers admittedly a bogey team but they are shocking atm)
Block 9 - Looking tough, but Bolton (H) and Tranmere (A) should be nailed on wins. Fleetwood (H) could either be tough (if they're also pushing for playoffs at that point) or a win (if they revert to mid table form and we recapture our home form).

I hadn't actually realised how many winnable games we have left - put like this, it looks promising.

 

[Marked Ox]

Block 7 - Wimbledon (H), Accrington (H), Southend (H) (plus you'd reasonably expect to get something from Shrews (A))
Block 8 - MK (H), Rochdale (A) Bristol Rovers (H) (Rovers admittedly a bogey team but they are shocking atm)
Block 9 - Looking tough, but Bolton (H) and Tranmere (A) should be nailed on wins. Fleetwood (H) could either be tough (if they're also pushing for playoffs at that point) or a win (if they revert to mid table form and we recapture our home form).

I hadn't actually realised how many winnable games we have left - put like this, it looks promising.

Talking of bogey teams, If we beat Fleetwood, it would be our 1st ever win against them and we have only drawn 2 whilst we have lost 9. A draw at home would be our 1st home point having lost all 5 games previously. So never mind Bristol Rovers, this looks infinitely worse!