Data bits

[beyondthefourth]

I did read that Macclesfield supporters weren't hugely impressed.
I guess that the club will have watched him a lot and we will find out when the released list is announced in a couple of weeks?

This is the Man of the match vote from their forum from the weekend before last against Newport County.
https://fansonline.net/macclesfieldtown/mb/view.php?id=190883

They seem to rate him now! And Miles Welch-Hayes as well, which is nice.

 

[Foley]

Yes he seems to have had a good game.
It would be good if he was ready for League1 even if he was good back up next season.

 

[Shosho]

Like I say, this is just off some pretty standard numbers but at the very least he looks to be solid on the floor and air. I’ve not seen him play but on a basic level it will be interesting to see if KR gives him a chance.

Kelleher was pretty much a MApp signing

 

[derek]

Like I say, this is just off some pretty standard numbers but at the very least he looks to be solid on the floor and air. I’ve not seen him play but on a basic level it will be interesting to see if KR gives him a chance.

Kelleher was pretty much a MApp signing

I agree, but Karl said in the 55min forum that they wouldn't be moving forward with him (I think that was the phrase).

 

[beyondthefourth]

I agree, but Karl said in the 55min forum that they wouldn't be moving forward with him (I think that was the phrase).

He said he trained well in pre-season, but they decided to let him out on loan and look at other options.

Don't know why an impressive season keeping relegation favourites in the league doesn't warrant us giving him a years extension.

He'll definitely have teams in the upper half of League Two offering him deals.

 

[WokinghamYellow]

He said he trained well in pre-season, but they decided to let him out on loan and look at other options.

Don't know why an impressive season keeping relegation favourites in the league doesn't warrant us giving him a years extension.

He'll definitely have teams in the upper half of League Two offering him deals.

well there you go, we need to sign a centre back that is good enough for league one top 10 teams

 

[beyondthefourth]

well there you go, we need to sign a centre back that is good enough for league one top 10 teams

We need more than one. And Kelleher might be good enough for League One. I can only say what I think the lower limit is, for the contract offers that will be coming in for him.

 

[Shosho]

Now we have reached the end of the season, thought it would be fun to see who was ever present and where the team is from a squad building perspective:



Firstly, I don't think Mackie will have come here expecting to rack up nearly 3000mins! Mousinho's versatility meant he got a lot of minutes, however we should probably look to bring in another holding player to reduce this....following Hanson's end to the season, I would expect him to take some of the share.

Depending on position, we largely have a squad coming into their prime (24-29). Nelson at 25 is understandable why he is looking to take his move to the Championship (possibly!)

The promise lies in Ruffels, Long, Brannagan, Dickie, Hanson, Whyte (look at those minutes for Brannagan at 23!). Next season we will *hopefully* have a fit Baptiste and Sykes (who I think will start to take minutes from Henry) that we can add to the above making a decent contribution.

I would love to have Browne and Sinclair back.

The next move for Garbutt and Graham is going to be a big one...the both seriously need minutes and to play regularly.

We have an exciting off season ahead, we have a core of decent, valuable young players that we can add to!

 

[AbbeyOx]

Now we have reached the end of the season, thought it would be fun to see who was ever present and where the team is from a squad building perspective:

View attachment 1426

Firstly, I don't think Mackie will have come here expecting to rack up nearly 3000mins! Mousinho's versatility meant he got a lot of minutes, however we should probably look to bring in another holding player to reduce this....following Hanson's end to the season, I would expect him to take some of the share.

Depending on position, we largely have a squad coming into their prime (26-29). Nelson at 25 is understandable why he is looking to take his move to the Championship (possibly!)

The promise lies in Ruffels, Long, Brannagan, Dickie, Hanson, Whyte (look at those minutes for Brannagan at 23!). Next season we will *hopefully* have a fit Baptiste and Sykes (who I think will start to take minutes from Henry) that we can add to the above making a decent contribution.

I would love to have Browne and Sinclair back.

We have an exciting off season ahead, we have a core of decent, valuable young players that we can add to!

amazing to see Whyte so high. considering it's been his first season at this level that's pretty remarkable

 

[Shosho]

amazing to see Whyte so high. considering it's been his first season at this level that's pretty remarkable

Not sure he would have expected so many minutes either, however he is not far off producing Browne numbers...which after a full pre season I would anticipate he does next year...the problem will then be holding on to him

 

[Foley]

Not sure he would have expected so many minutes either, however he is not far off producing Browne numbers...which after a full pre season I would anticipate he does next year...the problem will then be holding on to him

If Whyte improves he will be off. If his decision making improves he may even jump the Championship and go straight to the PL

 

[Shosho]

Have been having a play around this morning with some hypothetical scouting...for left back. Seeing if there is any possibility of us finding someone that is an upgrade on ruffels. Caveat: in no way am I a pro at this and I'm sure that there is plenty wrong, but thought it would be fun to find a *logical* process using numbers.

Firstly...what is the Oxford style of play under Robinson? In short: ball carrying!
Whyte (7.99 p90)/Browne (8.96 p90)/Holmes (8.76 p90) in the top 15 ball carriers in the league add to this that Baptiste is in top 20 for successful dribbles (off 638 minutes - limited data so alway cautious) shows that we have a preferred style. Add to this Holmes/Browne/Baptiste/Norman in top 10 for fouls suffered p90 - enforces above teams have opted to take us down in the dribbling situations.

Next...what do the ball carriers do aside from running with it?
From the right, Whyte/Henry/Mcmahon are (were!) prevalent crossers…from the left rely on crosses from Holmes (only played 48% of available minutes). Both Holmes and Browne have high volume shots (3.24 & 2.56 per game with xG p90 of 0.23 & 0.19 respectively).

So we have a direct, ball carrying style that from the right usually results in a cross, from the left results in shots/attempts.

So, whats the role of the LB in the above?
To get the ball to the wingers! If they can also join the attacks with overlaps/crosses/dribbles also then bonus time.

Lets go shopping:

Firstly, some filters. I initially filtered by players in league 1 and 2 that have played over 900 minutes so far this season including the left back role - total being 113.

Next, to filter by age. Full backs peak at the age of 26 and with shorter contracts being the norm in the lower leagues is sorted by 26 and under. We were left with 40 players:

View attachment 995

Now, to further filter I started looking at those that crop up regularly on the Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Dribbles p90. Players that appeared in all 3:
- Pickering
- Butler
- Benning
- Smith-Brown
- Borthwick-Jackson
- Bola

From here, the next logical step seemed to be checking the availability.
- Pickering - contract until 2021
- Butler - Contract expires summer 2019
- Benning - Contract expires summer 2019
- Smith-Brown - just signed for Plymouth
- Borthwick-Jackson - on loan from Man Utd..possible contract until 2021
- Bola - summer 2019 wit 1 year extension

So the options we have: Pickering the best of the bunch at 20, but the expensive option. Borthwick-Jackson and Smith-Brown ruled out, Bola cheaper than Pickering, Butler and Benning could possibly obtain on a pre-contract.

Here is the Dan Butler chart

View attachment 996
In the top 85% (out of the 40 players assessed) for xA, Passes p90, Crosses p90 and Cross success %. Also rating highly on dribble metrics.

Obvious concern around the level, if this could translate to league 1, the defensive elements (haven't looked much in to this).

I would imagine this could be used along with traditional scouting, references, watching the player etc...but a fun way of finding those players that could possibly fit in to the squad.

Looks like Dan Butler will be moving into league 1 with Peterborough

 

[MJB]

Some more interesting stats for y’all from the excellent @Markohaire account on Twitter. Check his timeline out for all other EFL stats. We certainly take a decent amount of shots!

Oxford in League One 2018/19 (ratio rankings):

5th - Shots
7th - Shots on-target
10th - Shots in the box
8th - xG
7th - xG from open play
12th - Touches in the box
17th - Deep completions
9th - Very deep completions
9th - Possession

https://twitter.com/x/status/1134053842071498752

 

[Shosho]

Some more interesting stats for y’all from the excellent @Markohaire account on Twitter. Check his timeline out for all other EFL stats. We certainly take a decent amount of shots!

Oxford in League One 2018/19 (ratio rankings):

5th - Shots
7th - Shots on-target
10th - Shots in the box
8th - xG
7th - xG from open play
12th - Touches in the box
17th - Deep completions
9th - Very deep completions
9th - Possession

https://twitter.com/x/status/1134053842071498752

Can’t believe we didn’t get above 18th until February. Shot production has been decent but can improve the locations.

Certainly a decent foundation to build on for next season...but need to replace Browne (performing pretty much at Chamipnship level) and go into the season with a Sinclair like striker removing our reliance on Mackie.

With some fine tuning, we could be a decent force next year....

Will clearly need to replace Nelson, probably bring in a DM, plus replace Browne and Sinclair (probably need 2 wide players and 2 strikers), upgrading LB/RB would be nice but further down the priority list

 

[MarkG]

what is xG?

had a look at the L1 stats and "very deep completions" = forward pass collected < 15 yards from goal. No surprise Wycombe are first with them lumping the ball up to Akinfenwa.

 

[MJB]

what is xG?

had a look at the L1 stats and "very deep completions" = forward pass collected < 15 yards from goal. No surprise Wycombe are first with them lumping the ball up to Akinfenwa.

Expected Goals, based on data related to the quality of chances.

 

[Shosho]

The follow up to above. I have compared some of the chosen attackers above to all players that play LW/RW in both league 1 and 2, all players over 1000mins. As a result, we end up with a percentile rank to see how the youngsters above compare using data from across the tow leagues in the positions.

Courtney Senior:

Involved in the 3rd goal here:

Can clearly carry the ball and create. Contracted until 2020 and at 21 looks like he could move up the leagues.

View attachment 1183

Nathaniel-George:

Signed for Crawley from hendon after being released from Arsenal and coming through the Vardy academy. Not bad for a first pro season!

View attachment 1184

Callum Ainley
Blimey, this kid. 21 signed a 3 year contract until 2021, looks like it will take some ££££ to get him. Crewe have some serious talent in Ainley and Pickering. Ainley can get himself in goal scoring positions, create for others, and carry the ball

View attachment 1185

Ruben Lameiras

Finally one from league 1, however out of contract this summer. Took us apart down at Plymouth. At 24, not far off coming into his peak....Plymouth's lift coinciding with Lameiras getting a run of games after Christmas.

View attachment 1186

This isn't a definitive list, just a few names picked from the dribbling graphic however can start to look further in depth to compare across leagues and players. Players such as Ainley and Senior looking like they are performing at a higher level than league 2.

Ruben Lameiras being linked with Swansea and Charlton. Someone will get a very good player...for free

 

[Marked Ox]

Ruben Lameiras being linked with Swansea and Charlton. Someone will get a very good player...for free

Charlton are also being linked with Erhan Oztumer from Bolton who could put in for breach of contract and get a free transfer as well.

 

[Shosho]

Just watching Jo Konta and thinking about our midfield next season.

This season we have clearly had a 'passer' and 'destroyer':

(top left = decent passer, top right = decent all rounder, bottom left = not really a defensive midfielder, bottom right = defensively good, weaker passing)



Mousinho is very solid defensively 9probably some CB numbers in there also) whilst being around average on passing ability. On the flip side, Brannagan is just below average defensively whilst being a strong passer.

Bielik, Power and Ruddock all showing their quality, with McCormack being a very good free transfer for someone in the short term. Wallace also excelling.

To move this on and see what players are doing with the ball:

Dangerous passes = key passes (passes that lead to a shot) and deepcompletions (passes in to 20m from opposition goal) combined.



This is where you can see the quality filter. Bielik whilst defensively being fantastic appears to keep it simple with the ball once he wins it. Branngan and Henry show up well creatively (a very good case to push Branngan forward), whilst Mousinho appears to be involved with and win a lot of his defensive battles, but doesnt offer too much on the ball (similarly Wallace).

One name that pops up, that might be worth a look (and has been mentioned elsewhere) is Ben Reeves. Great quality on the ball, has worked with KR and one of the most dangerous passing CMs in the league last year (only slight concern being his age).

Maybe tomorrow I will scout the lower leagues/Scotland to find those that show up well in similar metrics as a Mousinho replacement.

 

[Shosho]

So, a quick look at the wide positions. I haven't included Garbutt as he is quite tricky to analyse based on his games at LB. Essentially the question is: Browne or Graham? If we had the ability, who would we want to keep for next year?

Marcus Browne:

View attachment 1331

This is pretty impressive. Browne both creates opportunities for himself and others. When it comes to crossing and passing its clear his game is to collect the ball and get into shooting positions. He is our primary goal threat from wide positions.

Jordan Graham:

View attachment 1333

This is almost the opposite of Browne. When carrying and crossing Graham is in the top 10% of the league (for players in his position over 1000mins this season). The difference (that I think passes the eye test also) is the lack of opportunities he creates for himself. A pretty low strike rate and accuracy. This could be down to his shot locations, his focus around staying wide and delivering crosses rather than shooting himself. It would be interested to see the breakdown of his xA, if this mainly comes from set pieces.

In a straight comparison between the two, who would you keep?

As an aside, gavin Whyte:

View attachment 1334

This is promising. For a first season full time in England (plus our player) he needs to get himself into better shot locations - this will improve his xG P90, along with shots on target. Creatively he is on a par with Browne and Graham. I think a move for him in the summer may be too soon, however a strong 19/20 improving on the above and he will be ready for the Championship.

This only takes into account attacking metrics, I may look in to defensive ones also so see who contributes all-round.

As we seem to be linked to Fosu I thought I would look at how he compares to Graham, Browne and Whyte:



He certainly fits the blueprint for KR players!

Carries the ball well, is more of a goal threat than Whyte and Graham, whilst creating less.

At 23, this would be a great addition....could easily make some improvements and add value