So the way the draw has panned out, I think Southgate needs to reach the semi-finals in order to keep his job, and England really ought to be thinking about the final.
Having watched a bunch of the group stage, there's four teams in the tournament that I think can be genuinely scary on their day - Italy, Belgium, France & Spain - and they are all in the opposite half of the draw from England. The Dutch might be good (although they haven't played anyone yet - even less so than England), but even they're in the other quarter from us.
This is a poor Germany side - little or no drive and creativity going forwards, and a bit of a shambles at the back. They had one decent 20 minute spell against the ancient Portugal defense, which is the only reason they're still in the competition. Losing to them in the last 16 would be a failure.
And then the Quarter Final would be against Sweden or Ukraine, and you couldn't ask for an easier draw than that in a major tournament (again!).