SirAndyOfCrosby
Well-known member
- Joined
- 6 Apr 2022
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- 1,471
Not really no. We're better off with a couple of sides struggling and let the others go. No sharing out the points. A point apiece in these games keeps them all ticking over and probably all out of reach in the end. What we want is a top 5 all on 83+ but 2 others to struggle beyond 76-78. What we dont want is everyone on 80 or 82 and us finishing on 79 or 81 respectively.
Every point for Plymouth now edges them further away. Sunderland should comfortably be out of sight anyway with the games they have.
Before the Wednesday game last night they were 2nd behind Wycombe as our most catchable. They've now jumped behind both Plymouth and Sunderland.
Best bet for us now remains Wycombe, and now marginally Plymouth over Sunderland. A winner in that game effectively takes the winner away from us and we need the loser to drop further points. At this point I'd say that looks more likely to be Plymouth.
Our percentage chance of play-offs was 8% post-Sunderland. It grew to 9% when Rotherham lost to Pompey, fell back to 8% on Friday despite our win, 7% after Rotherham beat Ipswich, and now 6% post Wednesday win last night.
Good win for us aside, results going against us.
However, slight glimmer would be if Plymouth lose tomorrow and Wycombe also fail to win. That could see us up a few percentage points and a win for us on Tuesday and we could be back in double figures!
Results yesterday far from perfect, but not a disaster either. Wycombe dropping points crucial, and at least Plymouth didn’t win (although that point could be the difference between us failing to squeak in with 7 points from our last 3 games or making it with the same total). If we’re being positive, it does keep Sunderland in range (though that would take some serious dropped points from them at this stage).
Back up to 7% chance of making play-offs, so yesterday has got us back to where we were Saturday afternoon. Obviously plenty hinges on tonight. Win that and our changes will start looking healthier.
If we do get the win, there is hope going into the weekend with Wycombe and Plymouth facing very tough games. There is even an outside chance of Sunderland dropping points (surely those late goals have to dry up soon)? Cambridge, as we know from this weekend, are more than capable of beating anyone on their day (Sam Smith with the winner anyone)?
The main positive from yesterday is that whilst there is still work to do, for possibly the first time - it does now look as though 81 points would be enough - and that 3 wins would do it (there have been times where it looked like we’d still miss out with that total).
Looking at each team, from most ‘catchable’ upward (and working to the assumption that we get to 81 points):
Wycombe – currently on 77 with two to play. Two tough games remain (Wednesday home and Burton away). Their GD is one worse than ours, and we have to assume we improve ours if we get the points we need, so realistically, they would need to win both of their remaining games to finish above us.
Plymouth – on 79 with Wigan away and MK Dons home to come. GD could come into it, but one win puts them out of sight. Anything less and we should be able to catch them with our 3 wins.
Sunderland – 77 with Cambridge home, Rotherham home, Morecambe away to come. They would only need 5 points to be out of sight of us. However, if they drop points at home to Cambridge things get interesting and brings them into the mix.
Wednesday – 76 with Crewe home, Wycombe away, Fleetwood away, Pompey home. 6 points takes them out of sight. They should get 3 of those tonight. And then really we need them to win at Wycombe. Conversely, if they are beaten by Wycombe then it possibly brings them back into the equation needing a win from their final two games (although Wycombe will then be looking good in this scenario).
So 81 points does look like being a decent chance to catch both Wycombe and Plymouth – with an outside chance of catching Sunderland. I think 80 should be enough for the play-offs (obviously we can’t achieve that exact total). However, I’m not convinced 79 will be enough for us unfortunately. In this scenario Wycombe only need one win and Plymouth would have to fail to pick up another point.
Obviously plenty for us to do (before someone comes along stating the obvious), but if we do win tonight...