Matches The League 1 Promotion Run In

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Not really no. We're better off with a couple of sides struggling and let the others go. No sharing out the points. A point apiece in these games keeps them all ticking over and probably all out of reach in the end. What we want is a top 5 all on 83+ but 2 others to struggle beyond 76-78. What we dont want is everyone on 80 or 82 and us finishing on 79 or 81 respectively.
Every point for Plymouth now edges them further away. Sunderland should comfortably be out of sight anyway with the games they have.
Before the Wednesday game last night they were 2nd behind Wycombe as our most catchable. They've now jumped behind both Plymouth and Sunderland.
Best bet for us now remains Wycombe, and now marginally Plymouth over Sunderland. A winner in that game effectively takes the winner away from us and we need the loser to drop further points. At this point I'd say that looks more likely to be Plymouth.

Our percentage chance of play-offs was 8% post-Sunderland. It grew to 9% when Rotherham lost to Pompey, fell back to 8% on Friday despite our win, 7% after Rotherham beat Ipswich, and now 6% post Wednesday win last night.
Good win for us aside, results going against us.
However, slight glimmer would be if Plymouth lose tomorrow and Wycombe also fail to win. That could see us up a few percentage points and a win for us on Tuesday and we could be back in double figures!

Results yesterday far from perfect, but not a disaster either. Wycombe dropping points crucial, and at least Plymouth didn’t win (although that point could be the difference between us failing to squeak in with 7 points from our last 3 games or making it with the same total). If we’re being positive, it does keep Sunderland in range (though that would take some serious dropped points from them at this stage).

Back up to 7% chance of making play-offs, so yesterday has got us back to where we were Saturday afternoon. Obviously plenty hinges on tonight. Win that and our changes will start looking healthier.

If we do get the win, there is hope going into the weekend with Wycombe and Plymouth facing very tough games. There is even an outside chance of Sunderland dropping points (surely those late goals have to dry up soon)? Cambridge, as we know from this weekend, are more than capable of beating anyone on their day (Sam Smith with the winner anyone)?

The main positive from yesterday is that whilst there is still work to do, for possibly the first time - it does now look as though 81 points would be enough - and that 3 wins would do it (there have been times where it looked like we’d still miss out with that total).

Looking at each team, from most ‘catchable’ upward (and working to the assumption that we get to 81 points):

Wycombe – currently on 77 with two to play. Two tough games remain (Wednesday home and Burton away). Their GD is one worse than ours, and we have to assume we improve ours if we get the points we need, so realistically, they would need to win both of their remaining games to finish above us.

Plymouth – on 79 with Wigan away and MK Dons home to come. GD could come into it, but one win puts them out of sight. Anything less and we should be able to catch them with our 3 wins.

Sunderland – 77 with Cambridge home, Rotherham home, Morecambe away to come. They would only need 5 points to be out of sight of us. However, if they drop points at home to Cambridge things get interesting and brings them into the mix.

Wednesday – 76 with Crewe home, Wycombe away, Fleetwood away, Pompey home. 6 points takes them out of sight. They should get 3 of those tonight. And then really we need them to win at Wycombe. Conversely, if they are beaten by Wycombe then it possibly brings them back into the equation needing a win from their final two games (although Wycombe will then be looking good in this scenario).

So 81 points does look like being a decent chance to catch both Wycombe and Plymouth – with an outside chance of catching Sunderland. I think 80 should be enough for the play-offs (obviously we can’t achieve that exact total). However, I’m not convinced 79 will be enough for us unfortunately. In this scenario Wycombe only need one win and Plymouth would have to fail to pick up another point.

Obviously plenty for us to do (before someone comes along stating the obvious), but if we do win tonight...

 

[pafcprogs]

Well that was a decent day! Win tomorrow and I'll have that horrible feeling of hope again!

We are doing our best for you

Have a horrible 7th place feeling this morning.

 

[Manorlounger]

This should sort things out:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516193870975021060

 

[Big Ron]

We are doing our best for you

Have a horrible 7th place feeling this morning.

Hey pafcprogs, I went down for the game at Plymouth and watched most of yesterday's match - am I right in counting a grand total of one shot on target across both matches? It's not a loaded question - there seems to be plenty of movement and busy play, as well good defending and the best keeper in the league but you don't seem to be creating much in the way of real chances.

 

[Jolteon]

Ok after taking the weekend off I'm back with more meaningless tables to illustrate our plight:



Things to note:

- One minor tweak - the target points is now 81 instead of 80. It made sense to make the change as we all tend to agree it's what we'll need to reach the playoffs and the feeling is any less (79 points the next best point total we could get) would not be enough.

- We are by far the outsiders in terms of chances of reaching the playoffs. I eliminated Ipswich from my table for less. Every game is must win, and even then there's every possibility that if we do it STILL won't be enough as every team above us has a much higher chance of hitting 81 points than us.

- One thing worth noting is the goal difference for each team; every team in the running is within 4 goals of each other, with us right in the middle of that pack. Win all three of ours and the other results go our way, chances are we'll have the best GD come end of the season which would be worth an extra point as it essentially means the other sides have to hit 82 points to go above us.

- If we win all 3 of ours we have to hope that two of the following happen (all scenarios are assuming the respective sides don't increase their GD in their 1 win more than we do in our 3 wins):

• Wycombe fail to beat either Wednesday or Burton
• Sunderland lose at least one and lose or draw at least one other against Cambridge, Rotherham and Morecambe
• Wednesday only win one of their games and lose at least one against Crewe, Wycombe, Fleetwood and Portsmouth
• Plymouth fail to win both of their remaining games against Wigan and MK

- Weirdly, despite Plymouth having the highest % chance of hitting 81, I think their scenario is the most likely as they seem to have hit some stinker form suddenly - they have a slightly lower ppg in their last 5 than Rotherham, who are apparently in freefall, and only a slightly higher ppg in their last 5 than us, who are apparently bottlers.

- I think the only one of the three remaining scenarios that could happen is Wycombe failing to beat either Wednesday or Burton, which again I think is actually fairly likely. I can't see Wednesday dropping 7 points from their remaining 4 games, and similarly I can't see Sunderland dropping 5 from their remaining 3. Wycombe and Plymouth are the teams to catch, win all 3 of our games and I think we will. Unfortunately an even more unlikely scenario than the 4 above is that OUFC win all 3 remaining games.

This season has been utterly mental. Plenty of twists still to come and two sides will finish the season outside the playoffs on ridiculously good point totals. My head says it'll be us and Wycombe that miss out. But my gut has a funny feeling. Indigestion? Maybe. Or it could just be a gut feeling we're going to pull something ridiculous out the bag and sneak in on the last day. COYY

 

[pafcprogs]

Hey pafcprogs, I went down for the game at Plymouth and watched most of yesterday's match - am I right in counting a grand total of one shot on target across both matches? It's not a loaded question - there seems to be plenty of movement and busy play, as well good defending and the best keeper in the league but you don't seem to be creating much in the way of real chances.

I couldn't bring myself to watch the WW debacle ( as I expected it to be) but I was glued to Sky in Kent yesterday and I think you are right and anything else that could have been counted a s a shot was barely worthy of the name.

Having Hardie back was a boon, although we await news on Camaras departure with what looked like a hamstring which is not great news.

It is tricky...we have way of playing and that got us to a position none expected....so it is hard to justify why we would suddenly change from that (although there are quite a few advocating just that on Pasoti).

So I guess we trust the process, aim for at least a point at Wigan or have to win the possession fest v MK Our defence still seems pretty robust so we just need a couple of chances to drop.....


Football, bloody hell to quote Sir Alex.

 

[Wanderer]

This playoff race is so stressful! Your win tonight has got me massively worried about Oxford again. I thought 4 points would probably be enough to finish above Plymouth given their remaining fixtures, but now you lot could overtake us, even if we got a win and a draw. Not sure I've ever seen a more stressful and exciting playoff picture. I have a horrible feeling that we'll miss out, even with 81 points

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

Results yesterday far from perfect, but not a disaster either. Wycombe dropping points crucial, and at least Plymouth didn’t win (although that point could be the difference between us failing to squeak in with 7 points from our last 3 games or making it with the same total). If we’re being positive, it does keep Sunderland in range (though that would take some serious dropped points from them at this stage).

Back up to 7% chance of making play-offs, so yesterday has got us back to where we were Saturday afternoon. Obviously plenty hinges on tonight. Win that and our changes will start looking healthier.

If we do get the win, there is hope going into the weekend with Wycombe and Plymouth facing very tough games. There is even an outside chance of Sunderland dropping points (surely those late goals have to dry up soon)? Cambridge, as we know from this weekend, are more than capable of beating anyone on their day (Sam Smith with the winner anyone)?

The main positive from yesterday is that whilst there is still work to do, for possibly the first time - it does now look as though 81 points would be enough - and that 3 wins would do it (there have been times where it looked like we’d still miss out with that total).

Looking at each team, from most ‘catchable’ upward (and working to the assumption that we get to 81 points):

Wycombe – currently on 77 with two to play. Two tough games remain (Wednesday home and Burton away). Their GD is one worse than ours, and we have to assume we improve ours if we get the points we need, so realistically, they would need to win both of their remaining games to finish above us.

Plymouth – on 79 with Wigan away and MK Dons home to come. GD could come into it, but one win puts them out of sight. Anything less and we should be able to catch them with our 3 wins.

Sunderland – 77 with Cambridge home, Rotherham home, Morecambe away to come. They would only need 5 points to be out of sight of us. However, if they drop points at home to Cambridge things get interesting and brings them into the mix.

Wednesday – 76 with Crewe home, Wycombe away, Fleetwood away, Pompey home. 6 points takes them out of sight. They should get 3 of those tonight. And then really we need them to win at Wycombe. Conversely, if they are beaten by Wycombe then it possibly brings them back into the equation needing a win from their final two games (although Wycombe will then be looking good in this scenario).

So 81 points does look like being a decent chance to catch both Wycombe and Plymouth – with an outside chance of catching Sunderland. I think 80 should be enough for the play-offs (obviously we can’t achieve that exact total). However, I’m not convinced 79 will be enough for us unfortunately. In this scenario Wycombe only need one win and Plymouth would have to fail to pick up another point.

Obviously plenty for us to do (before someone comes along stating the obvious), but if we do win tonight...

As predicted, a win for us last night gets our play-off probability back into double figures – 17% to be precise (considering we were as low as 6% on Sunday that is quite the improvement). This is the best chance we’ve had since pre-Sunderland game (but post-Morecambe) when we were at 27%. Another win on Saturday and I suspect that would leap back to pre-Morecambe levels (50%+), provided Wycombe and Plymouth fail to win.

Expected a Wednesday win last night, we need to consider them gone. They only need another 3 points (hopefully that will come on Saturday).

All about Plymouth and Wycombe still for me.

Two wins for us is enough as long as two of the following three happen:

• Plymouth to fail to win another game (two draws is ok, we will trump them on GD).
• Wycombe to fail to win BOTH games. They would likely need two wins to finish above us. 4 points would not be enough for them (unless the win is by at least 5 goals).
• Sunderland – no more than 4 points from their remaining 3 games. This is distinctly possible.

Now this is where it gets interesting, would 4 points be enough? In short, maybe. Again two from three of the below:

• Plymouth would need to lose both.
• Wycombe would have to fail to win a game (two draws would be ok for us).
• Sunderland no more than 2 points.

Hopefully people can see why I was rooting for Sunderland to beat Plymouth and not the draw. That point for Plymouth could be the difference.

We obviously need to concentrate on ourselves and get the win Saturday, but provided we do, we will be in a very strong position as long as Plymouth and Wycombe fail to win (Sunderland being held by Cambridge would be a bonus).

 

[pafcprogs]

It's going to be a fraught two weeks.....what I would give for a win on Saturday just to have a week of relaxation.

The key game now is WW v Wendies, anything but a WW win means we have a decent chance and your outside chance increases as long as you can win in Yorkshire.

Mk seem to have run out of steam and picking up injuries as well and in case you didn't notice ( I am sure you did) Rotherham had a couple of new injuries last night....one injury sub subbed off himself....

Haven't been on their site yet but I would imagine its the opposite of Owlstalk right now.

 

[Barrieowl]

Why would you go on Owlstalk, it is like a retards relocation centre.

 

[oufc1991]

Why would you go on Owlstalk, it is like a retards relocation centre.

Do you think your lot will go up top two you've got a tricky game this weekend again WWFc

 

[unification]

Funny reading our pessimistic guests views on here. Nobody is going to make the play-offs if all of the above fan opinions are taken into account.

I'm pleased with our fightback since the three defeats in a row and we should feel some degree of confidence going into the Rotherham game. It's four defeats in five for the Millers so they may well be a wounded animal or there for the taking. What on earth has happened to them? You can't exclusively blame their EFL Trophy run as March's form for them was on the slide.

Bring all three points home from South Yorkshire and it at least takes it to the final day for us.

 

[Jolteon]

Well this is all going rather well suddenly. A truly excellent win last night for OUFC, and Wycombe, Plymouth and Sunderland will all now suddenly be nervous about the raging Ox coming up from 8th.



Things to note:

- What a win! When talking about us needing to win 4 from 4 to have a hope of still hitting the playoffs, in the back of my mind I always had MK as the point where we trip up and end our season. But here we are, still in with a shout, and the other games on last night in a weird way went in our favour (Wednesday aside).

- Let's start with Wednesday. They just keep getting results. Cross them off the list of teams to chase, there is no way they don't get 3 points from their final 3, and we actually want them to win on Saturday now against Wycombe.

- Speaking of Wycombe, we're now only 2 points behind with an easier run in. All we need is for them to drop points against one of Wednesday and Burton and we'll sit above them in the table come season end (assuming we win both our games). Whilst Wednesday seems the obvious game to watch out for for them to drop points, Burton have suddenly become a defensive force. In their last 4 games they've held Plymouth, Wigan and Accrington, and last night beat Rotherham, and didn't concede a single goal in all 4 games. If Wednesday fail to do their job, do not rule out Burton doing it for us instead by any means - another 0-0 in that game would do us perfectly.

- As I said yesterday, the other team we have a good chance of catching is Plymouth. Form has gone off a cliff, their PPG in the last 5 is lower than ours, and thanks to Ipswich, both Wigan and MK will have a lot to play for when they face Plymouth - Wigan still need to guarantee the title and MK will most likely be playing for the last automatic promotion spot. All we need is for Plymouth to not win both games and we'll finish above them (again, assuming we win our two).

- As for Sunderland... It feels unlikely that they'll fail to get 5 points from their 3 games, especially with their ridiculous knack for late goals recently. Since the beginning of March, all of their games have either finished 0-0 or with late Sunderland goals:

• Against Fleetwood - 1-1 until the 82nd minute, scored again at 90+1
• Against Crewe - 0-0 until the 84th minute, scored again 89th minute
• Against Gillingham - 0-0 until a winner in the 95th minute
• Against OUFC - 1-1 until a winner in the the 89th minute
• Against Shrews - 2-2 until a winner in the 92nd minute

5 games with late goals to give Sunderland the 3 points. Unbeaten since mid February. Chances of them not getting 5 points v Cambridge, Rotherham and Morecambe? Very low. Don't entirely rule out catching them, but it's probably not worth getting frustrated by them if they get more late goals.

- Finally lets talk about Saturday's game. Rotherham looked to be doing what Rotherham always does - put in workmanlike performances all season, and get back to the Championship without too much fuss. But they seem to have completely swapped form with Sunderland since beginning of March and have dropped 5 points in 2 games against Shrewsbury, lost to MK, Charlton and Burton, drew with Wycombe and only picked up wins against Ipswich and Lincoln. They reached the final and won the Pizza trophy in that time too, but that doesn't matter one bit when OUFC come to town. Rotherham aren't just in bad form, they're in relegation level form and at the worst possible time. The players and fans will be panicking about throwing away the autos, and all we need to do is match the work rate and energy of the second half v MK and the first 20 minutes v Fleetwood and we'll comfortably win. As long as one of Sunderland or Plymouth fail to win that'll guarantee it is taken into the final day of the season where anything can happen. KEEP BELIEVING!

 

[Marked Ox]

- Finally lets talk about Saturday's game. Rotherham looked to be doing what Rotherham always does - put in workmanlike performances all season, and get back to the Championship without too much fuss. But they seem to have completely swapped form with Sunderland since beginning of March and have dropped 5 points in 2 games against Shrewsbury, lost to MK, Charlton and Burton, drew with Wycombe and only picked up wins against Ipswich and Lincoln. They reached the final and won the Pizza trophy in that time too, but that doesn't matter one bit when OUFC come to town. Rotherham aren't just in bad form, they're in relegation level form and at the worst possible time. The players and fans will be panicking about throwing away the autos, and all we need to do is match the work rate and energy of the second half v MK and the first 20 minutes v Fleetwood and we'll comfortably win. As long as one of Sunderland or Plymouth fail to win that'll guarantee it is taken into the final day of the season where anything can happen. KEEP BELIEVING!

On Rotherham and their last promotion season, they got lucky with Covid curtailing the season. They were tumbling then and were, at the least, falling out of the automatic promotion places but also possibly the play off places.

 

[Joey]

Love these posts @Jolteon

I'm really surprised by Rotherham, they looked strong and always seem to have an effective way of playing that shouldn't be as prone to such wild swings in form but it really looks like they're cracking. After the recent weeks we've had it would be good if we can go into the last game with something riding on it.

 

[Barrieowl]

Do you think your lot will go up top two you've got a tricky game this weekend again WWFc

We blew our chance at top two weeks ago so I've resigned myself to the play offs. We need to avoid defeat Saturday to all but secure top six. A win would be nice mind.

 

[pafcprogs]

I tend to avoid the more extreme posters on most sites as most sites have them....

In fact there are massive similarities on all sites with types of posters....

Mainly I like the Lord Snooty match day set ups on Owls talk....he has a good way with words and the glass half empty view of the long term fan.

I have now been on the Rotherham site...and I would recommend Paul Warne doesn't read it any time soon....given I still think they will nick one win from their last three and that should be enough you would think three promotions might buy him a little credit.....

The Rotherham season seems to be catching up with them with injuries ( possibly the most significant one being Barlaser if it rules him out this weekend or longer) and they are pessimistic re getting a result against Oxford....

My gut says it will be us or Wycombe for sixth and I have a sneaking feeling we will just edge it on the final day.....would probably take a draw now from Wigan if offered....although according to the bible that is Greens on Screen they rank 17/109 as opponents for the away fixture.....( where the lower the number the better our record`) which surprised me somewhat.

I'll be watching through my fingers again on Saturday though...

 

[MackemLad]

Great win for your boys last night, I had a feeling even after we beat you that your race hadn’t yet been ran.

I wouldn’t rule out a Sunderland implosion yet either, even though results say different. We’re getting results without playing well, and as the late goals show, really have ridden our luck recently. On paper we should beat Cambridge and Morcambe and lose to Rotherham, but I wouldn’t put it past us to beat Rotherham and lose the other two.

If I was a betting man I’d say we will just miss out, but I’m hoping for a Wednesday win this weekend. Negatively though, I think Wycombe will bully Wednesday and get all the points. What a season though

 

[werthersoriginal]

Great win for your boys last night, I had a feeling even after we beat you that your race hadn’t yet been ran.

I wouldn’t rule out a Sunderland implosion yet either, even though results say different. We’re getting results without playing well, and as the late goals show, really have ridden our luck recently. On paper we should beat Cambridge and Morcambe and lose to Rotherham, but I wouldn’t put it past us to beat Rotherham and lose the other two.

If I was a betting man I’d say we will just miss out, but I’m hoping for a Wednesday win this weekend. Negatively though, I think Wycombe will bully Wednesday and get all the points. What a season though

Nice to see lots of reasonable and pleasant away fans coming in here! I reckon everyone is huddling together for comfort cos of the tension. I didn't think Sunderland were all that special recently but they seem able to get results in the end, which will probably get them a fair way, maybe to Wembley.

 

[Leysboy]

Despite getting a big win yesterday evening, it’s not in our hands, and we are relying on others to do us a favour or slip up. Them points dropped against Plymouth, Morecambe, and Sunderland are looking like being our undoing. Rotherham is a must win, because I don’t think a draw is good enough. To have any chance we need to finish on 81points. Madness to think that two teams could miss out on 80+ points. Normally that would get you comfortably in the playoffs, but that’s the difference in Lge 1. The top half are in there own little league, and the bottom half are just not good enough. It will be just as difficult next season if not tougher.

Here’s hoping for three points on Saturday, and hoping a couple of results go our way, although we really shouldn’t of put ourselves in this situation.