Find it therapeutic writing my thoughts down on here so apologies in advance for the long post:
Saturday will be weird. Our first totally damp squib game in, what, three years? The question of whether we've progressed in the last 12 months is a really tricky one. I fully take the point, and it is difficult to argue, that finishing outside the playoffs represents regression. (I do think characterising it as 'Playoff final / play off semi / no playoff' is disingenuous - 19/20 was a bizarre anomaly; sure, we technically made the playoff final, but we didn't finish in the playoffs after 46 games, and the playoff games themselves were essentially farces between two completely unfit teams, so I don't think that season can really be used as a benchmark for anything.) It is frustrating that our points tally would have us in the playoffs in pretty much any other year, but the whole point of a table is that it is relative to the other teams in it. I get that.
But I do think that ignores some genuine progress in areas that have been used as sticks with which to beat KR in recent years. The start, while not electric, was much better than the 'slow burner' we normally seem to endure. We did evidence tactical flexibility, with the 5-2-1-2 proving a clever and effective way of getting the best out of our available squad for a period. We improved our record against the top teams, which, while admittedly not hard to do after the appalling record of last year, was still pretty actively good: doubles over Wednesday and MK is a genuinely impressive feat. And, overall, I think we were much more competitive this year. When beaten, we were rarely beaten by more than one goal, and never by more than two. Even with the narrow losses, I can think of a number of games last year - Hull, Blackpool, Sunderland (A) even - where the opposition looked a genuine class above, and we couldn't get near them. In those games especially, we were kept completely at arm's length. That really didn't happen this year - the only game I can think of where we never looked in it was Wycombe (A) (and even then we had Holland missing an open goal at 0-0) (and, thinking about it, maybe Wigan (A) too, despite getting the draw). People point to the Plymouth game, but my overriding recollection of that was bafflement that we weren't three goals to the good after that start to the second half. We could, and really should, have won that game. That's really the story of the season: key moments dictated by fine margins that, by and large, seemed not to fall in our favour. It is the team and the manager's job to ensure those fine margins fall in our favour, true, and far too often they did not. But I do think it is encouraging that we were never too far away from the scales seeming to tip in our favour. In what is widely considered to be a league of generally stronger teams than last year, I think that constitutes legitimate improvement.
On the KR question, to pin my colours to the mast, I really like him. I think he's a great figurehead for the club, I like how he develops players and I like how he has us playing football. But I'm going to try and look at the 'how much credit does he have in the bank' question objectively.
I think much of the improvement articulated above is improvement from KR - the tactical point, in particular. It was also nice to see us develop a bit of the shithousing side of our game, at Wednesday, Ipswich and MK in particular (although that side of our game sounds like it's come round to bite us in the a**e in recent games) - it showed a bit of grittiness and nastiness that we have often lacked. I also think we made some astute signings in both windows: Williams and Bodin were smart players to bring in to supplement the side with L1 experience, Browne is obviously very exciting, Smyth will hopefully continue the conveyor belt of Irish talent and Baldock was, so nearly, inspired. Brown has also played his part. I think KR has demonstrated that he has the capacity to develop and to reflect on his mistakes, which does give me optimism going forward. I do also think that, to an extent, we got unlucky this year; a midfield three of Gorrin behind Kane and CB would have been delicious. Gorrin being out for year, and losing Moore, Baldock and Brannagan at key moments, really did hamper us. I think refusing to acknowledge this is churlish.
But it is difficult not to look at some of our transfer business again with some exasperation. I wrote in a post at the start of February that I just don't see how the rhetoric we hear about 'shortlists of players, club working round the clock all year to bring in players' can be true, and I stand by that. I know that transfers are far more difficult to get across the line than they may appear on the outside looking in, but I just don't know how we failed to fill such glaring holes in our squad for two consecutive windows. The Gorrin injury was unfortunate; not replacing him in January was baffling. Was there really noone we could get in to fill that hole? Similarly, not recruiting Brown until the final day of that window, though he did come good, hardly smacks of sealing the deal on a player that had been identified as a good potential signing from day 1. We also got incredibly lucky with Matty Taylor's fitness this season. The man is getting on and was still having to plough a lone furrow up top every week for months, entirely by himself. It was clear we needed a reliable backup striker for months, but none seemed to transpire. The Baldock signing was great, but even that came after the end of that window, and it seemed like his availability only became apparent late on - hardly a target who had been identified for months, you wouldn't think. I get that there's no point 'bringing in players for the sake of it', see Grayson, but, again, the perceived scrabbling around at the last minute, for positions we knew needed filling, just did not seem to indicate thorough long-term planning.
Additionally, the play style I think can flatter to deceive. We were so open, all season. Whether this is personnel, coaching, game plan, I don't know. But I do think the criticism that, while we play 'Nice Stuff' (and by god, at times, do we), we have shaky foundations is justified. The really strange thing is that KR seems to know this and can set his teams up accordingly. I recall after tricky periods in 18-19 and 20-21 KR set the team up to just not concede for a few games, and to grind out some 0-0s and 1-1s to get some points on the board. It wasn't pretty viewing, but it was necessary in each circumstance. He can do it. So it seems crazy that, for the whole second half of the season, we were quite so porous. That record of goals conceded per match since January is pretty ludicrous. And the buck does stop with him: whether it was recruitment or set up, that level of uncontrolled, basketball-style end-to-end game is not the way to ensure success. He needs to address this.
I don't think we're a million miles off. I think there are reasons for optimism and certainly no reasons for KR to be dismissed in the near future. But another summer of perceived dithering and failing to properly address holes in the squad and I will really start to query what is going on. Hopefully with the millstones of Hanson and Winnall removed from our necks we will have a bit more financial flexibility to get some strong deals done. But with the size of the rebuild needed, I am feeling uneasy. Our only under-contract central midfielders are Gorrin and McGuane (Brannagan, I'm afraid, will leave - we need to accept that - and Sykes is gone). So we need at least two there (assuming no youth teamers step up - what has happened to LCP?). Moore, I believe, is OOC, and McNally will attract interest - so we could conceivably need to recruit at least three CBs. We won't have a LW. We won't really have any pace in attacking areas (Browne aside). Ideally we would bring in a longer-term replacement at LB but I doubt we'll have the capacity to do so (other positions will take priority). A hell of a lot needs to be done.
All in all, a really enjoyable season, though one slightly tainted in hindsight by wondering, with a couple of tweaks and a bit of luck, what could have been. Looking forward to seeing how we can move on next season - a season in which, I think I have to reluctantly agree, KR will be under the microscope.
