Matches Top 6 Race 2023/24

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So let's be generous to ourselves and say we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs followed perhaps by a 10% chance of getting to the final and winning that. Those probabilities actually mean we have a 5% chance of going up.

In other words, if we were in the same position as today for the next 20 years, we should expect to be promoted just once.

I'm not checking out the directions to Championship grounds just yet.
Why do we have a 10% chance of winning a four team play off?
 
So let's be generous to ourselves and say we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs followed perhaps by a 10% chance of getting to the final and winning that. Those probabilities actually mean we have a 5% chance of going up.

In other words, if we were in the same position as today for the next 20 years, we should expect to be promoted just once.

I'm not checking out the directions to Championship grounds just yet.

Although it's only 14 seasons before you become more likely to have gone up than not, so that's something!
 
Dropping off with us 2nd in the league

74 points will make 6th place in league this season .
We dropped off, we were getting lucky in games, our XG was midtable. We weren’t blowing teams away. Lost to port vale, shouldn’t have beat Bristol rovers. Blame manning for us having an inconsistent rest of the season, he ripped the club to pieces and loads of those pieces haven’t been repaired or replaced
 
Spot on. This is undoubtedly the year to go up. If we'd had just been half decent I think we'd have claimed an automatic place. That's the frustration, there isn't really a quality side up there - they'd all struggle in the Championship, I think.
We’ve got a mediocre squad, not a mediocre first 11. But our depth isn’t strong enough. Thats why we are where we are and it’s where we should be.
 
We dropped off, we were getting lucky in games, our XG was midtable. We weren’t blowing teams away. Lost to port vale, shouldn’t have beat Bristol rovers. Blame manning for us having an inconsistent rest of the season, he ripped the club to pieces and loads of those pieces haven’t been repaired or replaced
I don’t disagree that the squad was starting to creak a bit which impacted form but he signed off with a creditable win at Lincoln and we also won at Orient which would’ve been largely his work (albeit added heat from his departure to fire up the players).

But what you’re saying is to suggest Manning wouldn’t have changed anything. Wouldn’t have adapated. Wouldn’t have found solutions. When in fact that’s what he did from the moment he arrived.

The floorboards needed ripping up. How else did we expect to transition away from the scrap heap of a football club we were before he came in? We were signing sought after players, attracting top end loan signings. I couldn’t believe the difference in my team in just 25 or so league games.
 
With some players being unhappy with manning (1 being Rodrigues) and some players having a problem with Des (1 being Rodrigues) it seems that it says more about the attitude of some of the squad we have here rather than the managers we have had this season.
As for Manning getting us up, maybe we would have been comfortably in the play offs by now but, what Manning has showed us this season is that if we went up then he certainly would have struggled to keep us there.

Before anyone says it, it is quite obvious Des hasn’t shown us that either but Manning has taken a promotion pushing team and turn them in to a bottom half team.
 
We dropped off, we were getting lucky in games, our XG was midtable. We weren’t blowing teams away. Lost to port vale, shouldn’t have beat Bristol rovers. Blame manning for us having an inconsistent rest of the season, he ripped the club to pieces and loads of those pieces haven’t been repaired or replaced

 
I think our next 3 games we should be getting 9 points from anything lower than 7 and play off will be a no chance the three games after we play teams around us I would hope for at least 5 points but think that will be where we come up short with the Exeter game being a dead rubber but you know what compared to last season I will be happy enough


But this is Oufc who knows what the f**k will happen 🤣🤣
 
According to the bookies Stevenage are the most likely of Ox (2/1) Lincoln (3/1) and Stevenage (11/8) to make the playoffs.

The fixtures have fallen really kindly for us, on paper you are not going to get a much better run than Port Vale, Shrewsbury, Fleetwood and Burton. To swerve Lincoln for a few weeks was a very lucky break.

I think there is a decent chance it will be in our hands by the time we play Posh at home. It’s hard to predict the final 3 games as some teams will be on the beach, some may be resting players for playoffs etc.

Despite our shocking Bolton performance I thought we’d beat Vale and I could see us winning the next 3.

ps don’t forget to get your Shrewsbury tickets, it’s a nice place to visit and a fully sold out and bouncing away end will help us get the win we need!
 
Funny how that’s interpreted in comparison to what Manning was doing here. Plenty of comparisons to be drawn but for some reason his pragmatism was perceived as boring/not that good/unsustainable.
It’s a fairly common approach on here implying, as you’ve done, that we all fall into two camps - broadly for or against. It seems to be an attempt to prove how ‘right’ you are.

People certainly do fall into those camps but for most of us it’s much more nuanced. He did a good job and effected a quicker turnaround than anyone could reasonably have expected. As you point out, there are similarities with Pompey and I gather Mous has had his critics during the season, in spite of doing measurably better than his recent predecessors.

With no inside knowledge, it’s also possible to be pissed off at the manner and timing of his departure and not following the job through. I wouldn’t want him back and usually avoid the Manning debates but for whatever reason, we haven’t been able to build on what he started.
 
With some players being unhappy with manning (1 being Rodrigues) and some players having a problem with Des (1 being Rodrigues) it seems that it says more about the attitude of some of the squad we have here rather than the managers we have had this season.
As for Manning getting us up, maybe we would have been comfortably in the play offs by now but, what Manning has showed us this season is that if we went up then he certainly would have struggled to keep us there.

Before anyone says it, it is quite obvious Des hasn’t shown us that either but Manning has taken a promotion pushing team and turn them in to a bottom half team.

The mind boggles.

The rewriting of Liam Manning by Oxford fans is mental.

He was an outstanding manager here and the way he left (snakey bastard) means people can’t give an honest view of him.
 
If Manning stayed we’d of been comfortably in the play offs.

Who knows we could’ve challenged Pompey/Derby..

A lot of that would’ve been decided by how he got his January transfer window done.

He was an outstanding manager here.
 
The mind boggles.

The rewriting of Liam Manning by Oxford fans is mental.

He was an outstanding manager here and the way he left (snakey bastard) means people can’t give an honest view of him.
It’s not rewriting history that performances were sometimes quite boring, players didn’t take to him (Rodrigues instagram post), we out performed our performances.
He did a good job while here but let’s not pretend performances were exciting to watch.
 
It’s not rewriting history that performances were sometimes quite boring, players didn’t take to him (Rodrigues instagram post), we out performed our performances.
He did a good job while here but let’s not pretend performances were exciting to watch.
I loved watching us play under Manning this season. Round pegs, round holes, clear plan, players who knew what they were doing, worked hard and won. Think that would be entirely consistent with how I posted on here.

Rodrigues didn’t like the way he left, I don’t see that says anything about what he thought when Manning was here.

If you hate someone, you’re probably not that sad if they leave unexpectedly.

How do you out perform your own performance?
 
I loved watching us play under Manning this season. Round pegs, round holes, clear plan, players who knew what they were doing, worked hard and won. Think that would be entirely consistent with how I posted on here.

Rodrigues didn’t like the way he left, I don’t see that says anything about what he thought when Manning was here.

If you hate someone, you’re probably not that sad if they leave unexpectedly.

How do you out perform your own performance?
I was never ‘excited’ when watching Manning’s style of football. I actually found it quite boring but saw that it was affective and got results.

As has been said many times, we out performed our XG and stats showed that we were doing better than we should have.
 
Round pegs, round holes, clear plan, players who knew what they were doing, worked hard and won.
I agree with that.

I also think that the football, particularly at home, was often boring and carried little in the way of entertainment.

Results are the most important thing, clearly, but his brand of football was bland.
 
It’s not rewriting history that performances were sometimes quite boring, players didn’t take to him (Rodrigues instagram post), we out performed our performances.
He did a good job while here but let’s not pretend performances were exciting to watch.
Boring, boring Oxford, second in the league when he left.
 
We dropped off, we were getting lucky in games, our XG was midtable. We weren’t blowing teams away. Lost to port vale, shouldn’t have beat Bristol rovers. Blame manning for us having an inconsistent rest of the season, he ripped the club to pieces and loads of those pieces haven’t been repaired or replaced
Complete nonsense of a post .
 
I was never ‘excited’ when watching Manning’s style of football. I actually found it quite boring but saw that it was affective and got results.

As has been said many times, we out performed our XG and stats showed that we were doing better than we should have.
But you come from the same class as Egg where anything less than positivity when things are good is totally unfathomable, ridiculous, laughable. If any one of the more critical posters had said what you’ve said while second in the league you’d have ridiculed them. But it’s ok now he’s a pantomime villain?

We were winning games. It wasn’t swashbuckling attacking football but it was still a side licking wounds from an awful season and still shy on headcount. Manning tended to box smart and sit behind the jab. Maybe that’s all he felt he could do with what he had and that’s hard to argue with since Des has tried to open us up and regressed the team.

It’s ok to be pissed off/disappointed/critical of him leaving if you so wish but I just can’t understand how you can take away what he did with the team.
 
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